Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#21
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#39
Pace65.1#271
Improvement-0.2#317

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#4
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebound+7.6#1
Layup/Dunks+3.4#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#271
Freethrows+2.0#75
Improvement+0.0#155

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#105
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#118
Layups/Dunks+2.2#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#138
Freethrows-1.6#269
Improvement-0.2#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.3% 7.3% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 26.0% 26.1% 5.3%
Top 6 Seed 49.3% 49.4% 18.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.7% 79.9% 51.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.0% 78.1% 49.5%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.9
.500 or above 92.2% 92.3% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.2% 74.3% 47.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.8% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 9.5%
First Round78.1% 78.2% 47.4%
Second Round55.5% 55.6% 24.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.2% 28.3% 7.4%
Elite Eight13.0% 13.0% 1.1%
Final Four5.8% 5.8% 1.1%
Championship Game2.5% 2.5% 1.1%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 10
Quad 25 - 111 - 11
Quad 32 - 013 - 11
Quad 46 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 249   Robert Morris W 91-53 97%     1 - 0 +30.7 +14.7 +15.9
  Nov 10, 2022 304   Charleston Southern W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +15.0 +3.5 +12.2
  Nov 16, 2022 355   Eastern Illinois W 65-43 99%     3 - 0 +4.4 -18.3 +21.5
  Nov 21, 2022 25   San Diego St. L 77-88 53%     3 - 1 +2.5 +10.6 -7.7
  Nov 22, 2022 89   Cincinnati W 81-53 79%     4 - 1 +33.8 +22.1 +16.2
  Nov 23, 2022 27   Texas Tech W 80-73 55%     5 - 1 +20.2 +26.3 -5.2
  Nov 30, 2022 19   @ Duke L 72-81 35%     5 - 2 +9.3 +9.3 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2022 322   St. Francis (PA) W 87-59 99.5%   
  Dec 08, 2022 39   Rutgers W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 17, 2022 23   North Carolina W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 21, 2022 262   Maine W 82-60 98%    
  Dec 29, 2022 343   Alabama A&M W 92-62 99.7%   
  Jan 01, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 05, 2023 3   Purdue L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 08, 2023 11   @ Maryland L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 12, 2023 165   Minnesota W 75-58 94%    
  Jan 15, 2023 39   @ Rutgers W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 18, 2023 91   @ Nebraska W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 21, 2023 24   Iowa W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 24, 2023 8   @ Illinois L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 28, 2023 6   @ Indiana L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 02, 2023 34   Wisconsin W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 05, 2023 57   @ Michigan W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 09, 2023 90   Northwestern W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 12, 2023 36   Michigan St. W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 16, 2023 24   @ Iowa L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 19, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 23, 2023 44   Penn St. W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 26, 2023 8   Illinois L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 01, 2023 11   Maryland W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 36   @ Michigan St. W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.5 2.3 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.6 7.1 9.5 12.5 13.4 13.2 12.5 9.3 6.5 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 95.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 81.2% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 46.5% 1.9    0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.2% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.0% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.3 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.5% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 3.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.3% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.9 0.1 0.5 2.7 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.5% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.2% 99.9% 7.5% 92.4% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.5 4.3 2.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 13.4% 97.7% 6.7% 90.9% 7.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.5%
10-10 12.5% 88.5% 5.6% 82.9% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 87.9%
9-11 9.5% 58.0% 5.6% 52.4% 10.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 55.5%
8-12 7.1% 21.3% 5.1% 16.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 17.0%
7-13 4.6% 4.6% 3.5% 1.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 1.1%
6-14 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-17 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.7% 8.1% 71.7% 5.9 2.7 4.6 8.9 9.9 11.4 11.8 10.0 7.0 4.5 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 20.3 78.0%