Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#36
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#36
Pace64.4#288
Improvement-0.3#354

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#38
First Shot+3.4#81
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#37
Layup/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#194
Freethrows+0.9#126
Improvement+0.1#90

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#57
First Shot+3.1#78
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#104
Layups/Dunks+1.2#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#258
Freethrows+2.4#63
Improvement-0.4#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 7.0% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.9% 21.8% 8.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.7% 56.6% 34.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.8% 54.8% 32.4%
Average Seed 7.5 7.4 8.4
.500 or above 69.8% 75.5% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.6% 50.3% 24.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.2% 5.5%
First Four6.4% 6.4% 6.6%
First Round48.7% 53.6% 31.3%
Second Round27.3% 30.5% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen9.6% 10.9% 5.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 4.0% 1.8%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 24 - 210 - 13
Quad 33 - 013 - 14
Quad 44 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 305   Northern Arizona W 73-55 97%     1 - 0 +7.0 -2.6 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2022 9   Gonzaga L 63-64 26%     1 - 1 +16.4 -6.2 +22.6
  Nov 15, 2022 18   Kentucky W 86-77 2OT 32%     2 - 1 +24.7 +7.6 +15.6
  Nov 18, 2022 79   Villanova W 73-71 75%     3 - 1 +5.8 +6.6 -0.6
  Nov 24, 2022 12   Alabama L 70-81 29%     3 - 2 +5.6 +4.1 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2022 42   Oregon W 74-70 52%     4 - 2 +14.4 +11.2 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2022 110   @ Portland W 78-77 64%     5 - 2 +8.1 +14.0 -5.8
  Nov 30, 2022 78   @ Notre Dame L 52-70 54%     5 - 3 -8.1 -11.6 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2022 90   Northwestern W 66-58 78%    
  Dec 07, 2022 44   @ Penn St. L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 10, 2022 277   Brown W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 21, 2022 307   Oakland W 85-63 98%    
  Dec 30, 2022 190   Buffalo W 82-67 92%    
  Jan 03, 2023 91   Nebraska W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 57   Michigan W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 10, 2023 34   @ Wisconsin L 62-65 38%    
  Jan 13, 2023 8   @ Illinois L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 16, 2023 3   Purdue L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 19, 2023 39   Rutgers W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 22, 2023 6   @ Indiana L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 26, 2023 24   Iowa W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 29, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 63-75 15%    
  Feb 04, 2023 39   Rutgers W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 07, 2023 11   Maryland L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 12, 2023 21   @ Ohio St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 15, 2023 165   Minnesota W 70-56 89%    
  Feb 18, 2023 57   @ Michigan L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 21, 2023 6   Indiana L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 24   @ Iowa L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 28, 2023 91   @ Nebraska W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 21   Ohio St. L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 3.2 0.4 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.8 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.3 4.2 0.9 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.7 1.1 0.1 9.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.2 7.7 11.1 13.3 13.8 13.2 11.2 8.4 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 73.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 54.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.7% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.3% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.4 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.7% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 5.3 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 8.4% 98.9% 5.7% 93.2% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-9 11.2% 96.8% 4.8% 91.9% 7.4 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 96.6%
10-10 13.2% 86.1% 3.8% 82.4% 8.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 85.6%
9-11 13.8% 53.6% 3.1% 50.4% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4 52.1%
8-12 13.3% 10.9% 2.3% 8.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.8 8.8%
7-13 11.1% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.9 0.1%
6-14 7.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
5-15 5.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
4-16 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 51.7% 3.7% 48.0% 7.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.2 5.6 7.4 7.9 7.0 5.6 4.7 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 48.3 49.8%