Wisconsin
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#34
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#52
Pace64.3#289
Improvement-0.1#287

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#119
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#72
Layup/Dunks-2.4#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#68
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement+0.1#128

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#11
First Shot+9.2#15
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#182
Layups/Dunks+3.7#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#68
Freethrows+3.8#19
Improvement-0.2#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 10.5% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 15.5% 27.2% 11.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.5% 68.3% 43.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.5% 66.7% 41.7%
Average Seed 7.7 7.1 8.1
.500 or above 79.1% 90.8% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.2% 63.5% 50.7%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.0% 2.1%
First Four5.6% 5.3% 5.7%
First Round48.0% 65.9% 41.1%
Second Round26.9% 39.7% 22.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.7% 15.3% 7.5%
Elite Eight3.8% 6.2% 2.8%
Final Four1.5% 2.5% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 230   South Dakota W 85-59 94%     1 - 0 +19.5 +8.5 +11.8
  Nov 11, 2022 81   Stanford W 60-50 67%     2 - 0 +16.6 -5.4 +22.4
  Nov 15, 2022 362   Green Bay W 56-45 99%     3 - 0 -9.6 -19.2 +11.2
  Nov 23, 2022 72   Dayton W 43-42 63%     4 - 0 +8.7 -17.2 +26.0
  Nov 24, 2022 17   Kansas L 68-69 OT 32%     4 - 1 +14.9 +2.7 +12.2
  Nov 25, 2022 71   USC W 64-59 62%     5 - 1 +12.8 +4.2 +9.2
  Nov 29, 2022 70   Wake Forest L 75-78 72%     5 - 2 +2.0 +4.6 -2.6
  Dec 03, 2022 22   @ Marquette L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 06, 2022 11   Maryland L 63-66 38%    
  Dec 11, 2022 24   @ Iowa L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 15, 2022 299   Lehigh W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 23, 2022 244   Grambling St. W 72-54 95%    
  Dec 30, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 77-54 98%    
  Jan 03, 2023 165   Minnesota W 66-52 90%    
  Jan 07, 2023 8   @ Illinois L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 10, 2023 36   Michigan St. W 65-62 62%    
  Jan 14, 2023 6   @ Indiana L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 17, 2023 44   Penn St. W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 21, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 59-57 59%    
  Jan 25, 2023 11   @ Maryland L 60-69 21%    
  Jan 28, 2023 8   Illinois L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 02, 2023 21   @ Ohio St. L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 05, 2023 90   Northwestern W 62-54 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 44   @ Penn St. L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 91   @ Nebraska W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 14, 2023 57   Michigan W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 18, 2023 39   Rutgers W 62-59 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 24   Iowa W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 26, 2023 57   @ Michigan L 65-66 47%    
  Mar 02, 2023 3   Purdue L 61-67 31%    
  Mar 05, 2023 165   @ Minnesota W 63-55 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.2 1.8 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.4 3.2 0.4 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.8 0.9 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.9 0.9 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.0 8.9 11.2 13.0 13.4 12.7 10.2 7.8 4.8 3.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 79.7% 0.5    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 41.5% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
15-5 17.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.1 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.3% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.0% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.8% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 7.8% 99.5% 6.3% 93.2% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 10.2% 95.4% 5.5% 89.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 95.1%
11-9 12.7% 84.7% 4.6% 80.1% 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 84.0%
10-10 13.4% 59.2% 3.8% 55.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 57.6%
9-11 13.0% 25.0% 2.9% 22.1% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 22.8%
8-12 11.2% 6.4% 2.5% 3.9% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.5 4.0%
7-13 8.9% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.8 0.1%
6-14 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.0
5-15 3.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-16 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 50.5% 4.0% 46.6% 7.7 0.3 0.6 1.7 2.5 4.2 6.2 7.8 8.0 7.0 5.5 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 49.5 48.5%