Michigan
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#58
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#74
Pace68.7#183
Improvement-0.4#290

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#35
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#234
Layup/Dunks+1.2#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#82
Freethrows+2.0#66
Improvement-0.2#275

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks+0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#90
Freethrows+1.7#88
Improvement-0.2#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 3.8% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 12.3% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.7% 45.3% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.8% 43.6% 20.7%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.8
.500 or above 52.7% 72.0% 45.6%
.500 or above in Conference 34.3% 43.6% 30.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.9% 5.4%
First Four4.5% 5.5% 4.1%
First Round26.6% 42.6% 20.8%
Second Round13.2% 22.3% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.9% 6.8% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.5% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 12
Quad 23 - 27 - 14
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 198   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-56 89%     1 - 0 +14.4 -1.2 +14.9
  Nov 11, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 88-83 90%     2 - 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5
  Nov 16, 2022 106   Pittsburgh W 91-60 67%     3 - 0 +35.4 +24.2 +12.8
  Nov 17, 2022 40   Arizona St. L 62-87 44%     3 - 1 -14.5 +0.9 -16.7
  Nov 20, 2022 157   Ohio W 70-66 OT 85%     4 - 1 +1.8 -6.4 +8.0
  Nov 23, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 78-68 96%     5 - 1 -1.5 -3.0 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2022 14   Virginia L 68-70 33%     5 - 2 +11.5 +9.1 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2022 17   Kentucky L 69-76 27%    
  Dec 08, 2022 166   @ Minnesota W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 17, 2022 163   Lipscomb W 84-72 86%    
  Dec 21, 2022 22   North Carolina L 72-77 31%    
  Dec 29, 2022 244   Central Michigan W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 01, 2023 12   Maryland L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 04, 2023 43   Penn St. W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 07, 2023 37   @ Michigan St. L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 12, 2023 24   @ Iowa L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 15, 2023 90   Northwestern W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 19, 2023 12   @ Maryland L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 22, 2023 166   Minnesota W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 26, 2023 3   Purdue L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 29, 2023 43   @ Penn St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 02, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 05, 2023 23   Ohio St. L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 08, 2023 92   Nebraska W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 7   Indiana L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 14, 2023 35   @ Wisconsin L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 37   Michigan St. W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 23, 2023 39   @ Rutgers L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 26, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 02, 2023 10   @ Illinois L 70-81 16%    
  Mar 05, 2023 7   @ Indiana L 67-79 14%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.6 0.2 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.1 0.9 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.4 4.5 1.1 0.1 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 4.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 11.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.5 12.7 13.9 13.2 11.4 9.0 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 71.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.2% 99.4% 5.8% 93.5% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 4.0% 98.7% 5.5% 93.2% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
12-8 6.1% 92.0% 3.6% 88.3% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 91.7%
11-9 9.0% 75.6% 4.0% 71.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 74.6%
10-10 11.4% 46.4% 2.9% 43.4% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.1 44.8%
9-11 13.2% 15.8% 2.6% 13.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.1 13.5%
8-12 13.9% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3 2.1%
7-13 12.7% 2.1% 1.9% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.5 0.1%
6-14 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.4
5-15 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
4-16 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.4
3-17 2.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-18 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 28.7% 2.6% 26.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.3 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 71.3 26.8%