Purdue
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#3
Expected Predictive Rating+26.7#1
Pace64.8#279
Improvement-0.1#246

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#2
First Shot+10.2#6
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#78
Layup/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#89
Freethrows+4.3#16
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#31
First Shot+4.0#63
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#23
Layups/Dunks+7.5#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
Freethrows+4.8#13
Improvement-0.1#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.6% 15.8% 3.8%
#1 Seed 46.1% 46.6% 21.4%
Top 2 Seed 73.2% 73.7% 49.0%
Top 4 Seed 93.4% 93.6% 78.9%
Top 6 Seed 98.5% 98.6% 93.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 99.3%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.4% 91.8%
Conference Champion 40.6% 41.0% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.9%
First Round99.8% 99.8% 98.8%
Second Round94.5% 94.6% 88.9%
Sweet Sixteen70.1% 70.3% 60.1%
Elite Eight45.6% 45.8% 33.1%
Final Four27.5% 27.7% 17.0%
Championship Game15.7% 15.8% 8.8%
National Champion8.8% 8.8% 5.0%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 4
Quad 26 - 117 - 5
Quad 35 - 021 - 5
Quad 45 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 226   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-53 98%     1 - 0 +24.6 +3.7 +18.8
  Nov 11, 2022 279   Austin Peay W 63-44 99%     2 - 0 +10.1 +0.4 +13.7
  Nov 15, 2022 22   Marquette W 75-70 79%     3 - 0 +16.4 +11.9 +4.8
  Nov 24, 2022 14   West Virginia W 80-68 63%     4 - 0 +28.4 +17.9 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2022 9   Gonzaga W 84-66 59%     5 - 0 +35.4 +20.0 +16.2
  Nov 27, 2022 19   Duke W 75-56 67%     6 - 0 +34.3 +15.8 +20.0
  Nov 30, 2022 187   @ Florida St. W 79-69 94%     7 - 0 +12.0 +6.0 +5.8
  Dec 04, 2022 165   Minnesota W 76-54 98%    
  Dec 07, 2022 132   Hofstra W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 10, 2022 91   @ Nebraska W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 17, 2022 119   Davidson W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 21, 2022 334   New Orleans W 93-58 99.9%   
  Dec 29, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 87-47 100.0%   
  Jan 02, 2023 39   Rutgers W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 05, 2023 21   @ Ohio St. W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 08, 2023 44   Penn St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 13, 2023 91   Nebraska W 78-61 94%    
  Jan 16, 2023 36   @ Michigan St. W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 19, 2023 165   @ Minnesota W 73-57 93%    
  Jan 22, 2023 11   Maryland W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 26, 2023 57   @ Michigan W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 29, 2023 36   Michigan St. W 75-63 85%    
  Feb 01, 2023 44   Penn St. W 75-62 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 6   @ Indiana L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 09, 2023 24   Iowa W 81-72 78%    
  Feb 12, 2023 90   @ Northwestern W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 16, 2023 11   @ Maryland L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 19, 2023 21   Ohio St. W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 25, 2023 6   Indiana W 73-69 65%    
  Mar 02, 2023 34   @ Wisconsin W 67-61 69%    
  Mar 05, 2023 8   Illinois W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.7 11.7 10.2 5.4 1.6 40.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 7.5 7.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 5.8 4.2 1.0 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.6 9.0 13.0 15.7 15.8 14.6 10.7 5.4 1.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 99.9% 5.4    5.2 0.2
18-2 95.6% 10.2    8.9 1.3
17-3 79.9% 11.7    8.1 3.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 48.8% 7.7    3.5 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.7% 3.4    0.8 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.6% 40.6 28.3 9.7 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.0 1.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 5.4% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.1 4.9 0.5 100.0%
18-2 10.7% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.1 9.2 1.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 14.6% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 1.2 11.5 3.0 0.1 100.0%
16-4 15.8% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 1.4 9.4 5.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.7% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 1.7 6.5 7.4 1.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 13.0% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.2 2.4 5.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.0% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 2.9 0.5 2.4 4.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 6.6% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 3.6 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 3.9% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 4.5 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.0% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 5.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-11 1.0% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.4% 94.3% 4.5% 89.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.0%
7-13 0.2% 70.5% 6.8% 63.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 68.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 21.4% 78.4% 2.1 46.1 27.1 13.4 6.8 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5