Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#26
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#7
Pace62.6#328
Improvement-0.1#235

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#111
First Shot-4.0#301
After Offensive Rebound+6.0#4
Layup/Dunks+2.5#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#252
Freethrows-2.9#325
Improvement+0.0#225

Defense
Total Defense+11.3#3
First Shot+10.8#4
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#164
Layups/Dunks+3.5#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
Freethrows+6.5#4
Improvement+0.0#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 6.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 22.7% 22.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 45.9% 45.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.4% 86.4% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 85.2% 33.3%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 8.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.4% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.4% 80.5% 33.3%
Conference Champion 8.4% 8.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 4.7% 0.0%
First Round84.0% 84.0% 33.3%
Second Round54.2% 54.2% 16.7%
Sweet Sixteen24.2% 24.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight10.2% 10.2% 0.0%
Final Four4.2% 4.2% 0.0%
Championship Game1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 34 - 015 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 248   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 63-44 96%     1 - 0 +11.7 -13.1 +25.2
  Nov 11, 2022 137   Akron W 73-54 84%     2 - 0 +21.4 +8.9 +14.3
  Nov 13, 2022 336   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 80-47 99%     3 - 0 +18.1 +4.4 +14.6
  Nov 17, 2022 230   South Dakota W 79-42 96%     4 - 0 +30.5 +10.9 +24.7
  Nov 21, 2022 22   Marquette W 58-55 45%     5 - 0 +17.4 -4.0 +21.6
  Nov 23, 2022 47   Utah W 52-49 63%     6 - 0 +12.9 -7.2 +20.6
  Nov 28, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 74-54 97%     7 - 0 +10.3 +0.2 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 78-43 100.0%   
  Dec 11, 2022 165   @ Minnesota W 62-52 82%    
  Dec 14, 2022 309   @ Jackson St. W 73-54 96%    
  Dec 17, 2022 255   Nicholls St. W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 20, 2022 73   Drake W 65-59 70%    
  Dec 28, 2022 12   Alabama L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 03, 2023 5   @ Tennessee L 54-62 22%    
  Jan 07, 2023 64   Mississippi W 65-57 76%    
  Jan 11, 2023 124   @ Georgia W 63-56 74%    
  Jan 14, 2023 29   @ Auburn L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 17, 2023 5   Tennessee L 57-59 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 66   Florida W 70-62 76%    
  Jan 25, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 63-69 28%    
  Jan 28, 2023 52   TCU W 64-57 72%    
  Jan 31, 2023 231   @ South Carolina W 67-53 89%    
  Feb 04, 2023 51   Missouri W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 08, 2023 62   LSU W 66-58 76%    
  Feb 11, 2023 15   @ Arkansas L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 15, 2023 18   Kentucky W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 64   @ Mississippi W 62-60 57%    
  Feb 21, 2023 51   @ Missouri W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 56   Texas A&M W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 28, 2023 231   South Carolina W 70-50 96%    
  Mar 04, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt W 65-61 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.5 1.0 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 5.4 1.3 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.3 6.1 1.7 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.2 3.2 6.1 2.3 0.2 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.7 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.9 0.5 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.6 12.4 14.7 15.3 13.7 10.8 7.1 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 93.5% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 72.0% 3.0    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.6% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 1.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.2% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.1% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.3 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.8% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 4.3 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.5 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.7% 99.9% 9.8% 90.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.2 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.3% 99.2% 9.4% 89.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.3 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 14.7% 96.3% 6.7% 89.6% 7.7 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.8 3.6 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 96.0%
9-9 12.4% 88.0% 4.7% 83.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.1 1.5 87.4%
8-10 8.6% 66.5% 4.1% 62.4% 10.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 2.9 65.1%
7-11 5.7% 34.7% 3.2% 31.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.7 32.5%
6-12 3.0% 10.8% 2.7% 8.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 8.3%
5-13 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 86.4% 8.2% 78.2% 6.3 2.3 4.4 6.8 9.2 11.2 12.1 11.5 9.6 7.8 6.0 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 85.1%