Richmond
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#166
Pace63.7#310
Improvement-0.4#324

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#211
Layup/Dunks-2.6#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#47
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-0.3#299

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#72
First Shot+5.6#44
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#284
Layups/Dunks+5.5#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#92
Freethrows+0.9#139
Improvement-0.2#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.2% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.1% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 78.0% 82.8% 59.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 79.6% 67.3%
Conference Champion 11.1% 12.2% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.3% 3.2%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 0.8%
First Round9.6% 10.6% 6.0%
Second Round2.1% 2.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 49 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 332   VMI W 69-48 96%     1 - 0 +6.2 -10.7 +17.9
  Nov 11, 2022 174   Northern Iowa W 68-55 78%     2 - 0 +9.8 -2.6 +13.2
  Nov 14, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 90-92 OT 32%     2 - 1 +7.7 +5.1 +2.9
  Nov 17, 2022 95   Wichita St. L 53-56 61%     2 - 2 -0.8 -9.2 +7.9
  Nov 21, 2022 97   Syracuse L 71-74 OT 49%     2 - 3 +2.1 +3.2 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2022 96   Temple W 61-49 49%     3 - 3 +17.2 +1.7 +17.6
  Nov 30, 2022 102   @ Toledo L 67-90 39%     3 - 4 -15.3 -10.0 -4.2
  Dec 03, 2022 287   @ William & Mary W 71-62 79%    
  Dec 10, 2022 71   Drake W 66-65 51%    
  Dec 13, 2022 321   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 17, 2022 76   Clemson L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 21, 2022 216   Bucknell W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 28, 2022 313   Coppin St. W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 31, 2022 158   @ George Mason W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 04, 2023 194   George Washington W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 130   Duquesne W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 11, 2023 116   @ Davidson L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 108   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 17, 2023 180   Rhode Island W 66-58 78%    
  Jan 20, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-61 56%    
  Jan 25, 2023 99   @ Massachusetts L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 28, 2023 74   @ Dayton L 56-61 32%    
  Feb 01, 2023 108   St. Bonaventure W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 05, 2023 177   Fordham W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 194   @ George Washington W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 171   Loyola Chicago W 65-57 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 220   @ La Salle W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 21, 2023 46   Saint Louis L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 24, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-64 35%    
  Mar 01, 2023 193   @ Saint Joseph's W 68-65 62%    
  Mar 04, 2023 158   George Mason W 68-61 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 11.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 5.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.6 4.2 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.8 1.3 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 2.3 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.0 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.7 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.4 8.8 12.0 13.4 13.7 13.4 10.4 7.1 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.2% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.6% 1.9    1.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 76.0% 3.3    2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.6% 3.2    1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.2 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 94.7% 42.1% 52.6% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
17-1 0.7% 74.5% 28.7% 45.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 64.2%
16-2 2.0% 49.2% 24.0% 25.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 33.1%
15-3 4.3% 29.9% 19.4% 10.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 3.0 13.0%
14-4 7.1% 17.5% 14.4% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 3.6%
13-5 10.4% 12.9% 12.2% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.9%
12-6 13.4% 10.6% 10.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.0 0.1%
11-7 13.7% 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 12.7 0.1%
10-8 13.4% 6.8% 6.8% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.5
9-9 12.0% 5.4% 5.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.3
8-10 8.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.5
7-11 6.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.2
6-12 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 8.5% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 89.9 1.8%