Florida
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#66
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#108
Pace76.3#39
Improvement+0.0#221

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#58
First Shot+6.0#40
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#264
Layup/Dunks+5.6#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#185
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+0.1#121

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#74
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#155
Layups/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#259
Freethrows+2.5#59
Improvement-0.1#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 18.5% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.2% 16.3% 6.7%
Average Seed 9.4 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 49.8% 53.0% 26.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 43.0% 29.5%
Conference Champion 0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.1% 3.9%
First Four3.8% 4.0% 2.5%
First Round15.5% 16.6% 7.3%
Second Round6.9% 7.5% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 14
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 342   Stony Brook W 81-45 98%     1 - 0 +20.2 -0.1 +20.2
  Nov 11, 2022 214   Kennesaw St. W 88-78 90%     2 - 0 +4.2 +3.4 +0.1
  Nov 14, 2022 65   Florida Atlantic L 74-76 61%     2 - 1 +3.2 -1.4 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2022 187   @ Florida St. W 76-67 72%     3 - 1 +11.0 -0.2 +10.6
  Nov 24, 2022 28   Xavier L 83-90 32%     3 - 2 +6.1 +5.6 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2022 209   Oregon St. W 81-68 84%     4 - 2 +10.6 +13.1 -1.6
  Nov 27, 2022 14   West Virginia L 55-84 22%     4 - 3 -12.6 -14.2 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2022 360   Florida A&M W 102-62 99%     5 - 3 +20.0 +19.6 -0.7
  Dec 04, 2022 202   Stetson W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 07, 2022 2   Connecticut L 71-80 19%    
  Dec 14, 2022 152   Ohio W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 20, 2022 40   Oklahoma L 68-70 41%    
  Dec 28, 2022 29   @ Auburn L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 04, 2023 56   Texas A&M W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 07, 2023 124   Georgia W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 10, 2023 62   @ LSU L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 14, 2023 51   Missouri W 85-84 55%    
  Jan 18, 2023 56   @ Texas A&M L 75-79 36%    
  Jan 21, 2023 26   @ Mississippi St. L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 25, 2023 231   South Carolina W 79-64 91%    
  Jan 28, 2023 45   @ Kansas St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 01, 2023 5   Tennessee L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 04, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 08, 2023 12   @ Alabama L 73-84 16%    
  Feb 11, 2023 88   Vanderbilt W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 15, 2023 64   Mississippi W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 15   @ Arkansas L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 22, 2023 18   Kentucky L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 25, 2023 88   @ Vanderbilt L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 28, 2023 124   @ Georgia W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 04, 2023 62   LSU W 76-73 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 4.8 1.3 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 5.8 2.5 0.2 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.9 4.0 0.4 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.2 0.8 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.6 3.9 5.2 1.5 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.4 2.6 5.0 2.1 0.1 10.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.9 8.5 12.3 14.3 15.2 13.8 11.4 7.7 4.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 73.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 98.7% 14.1% 84.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
14-4 1.1% 98.6% 10.0% 88.6% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
13-5 2.3% 90.3% 3.9% 86.4% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.9%
12-6 4.7% 76.1% 4.7% 71.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 74.9%
11-7 7.7% 54.0% 4.4% 49.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 51.9%
10-8 11.4% 28.2% 3.4% 24.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.2 25.7%
9-9 13.8% 11.7% 2.3% 9.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 9.6%
8-10 15.2% 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.7 1.1%
7-11 14.3% 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.0 0.1%
6-12 12.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.1
5-13 8.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.4
4-14 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.9
3-15 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-16 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.3% 2.5% 14.8% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 82.7 15.2%