Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#35
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#29
Pace68.5#187
Improvement+0.3#20

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#128
First Shot+0.5#151
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks-1.9#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#228
Freethrows+1.7#89
Improvement+0.2#28

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#10
First Shot+8.1#19
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#111
Layups/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#54
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+0.1#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 7.7% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.4% 21.8% 8.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.9% 70.9% 50.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.0% 68.1% 47.5%
Average Seed 7.9 7.7 8.7
.500 or above 95.2% 97.2% 89.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.6% 88.3% 68.8%
Conference Champion 9.4% 11.4% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four7.1% 7.0% 7.5%
First Round62.3% 67.3% 46.7%
Second Round32.5% 36.0% 21.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.6% 12.0% 6.1%
Elite Eight3.6% 4.2% 1.8%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 5
Quad 26 - 39 - 8
Quad 36 - 215 - 10
Quad 45 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 134   Tarleton St. W 62-59 85%     1 - 0 +2.5 -16.3 +18.5
  Nov 10, 2022 305   Northern Arizona W 84-68 97%     2 - 0 +5.0 +2.7 +2.2
  Nov 13, 2022 252   @ Texas Southern L 66-67 OT 87%     2 - 1 -2.4 -12.7 +10.4
  Nov 16, 2022 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-59 67%     3 - 1 +10.4 +0.4 +10.1
  Nov 17, 2022 57   Michigan W 87-62 58%     4 - 1 +33.9 +21.2 +14.0
  Nov 22, 2022 244   Grambling St. W 80-49 94%     5 - 1 +23.9 +8.3 +16.3
  Nov 27, 2022 291   Alcorn St. W 76-54 96%     6 - 1 +12.1 -0.7 +13.0
  Dec 01, 2022 50   @ Colorado W 60-59 43%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +13.7 -4.1 +17.8
  Dec 04, 2022 81   Stanford W 67-60 76%    
  Dec 07, 2022 153   @ SMU W 68-61 75%    
  Dec 12, 2022 10   Creighton L 65-71 27%    
  Dec 18, 2022 180   San Diego W 73-59 91%    
  Dec 21, 2022 83   @ San Francisco W 71-70 55%    
  Dec 31, 2022 16   Arizona L 77-79 41%    
  Jan 05, 2023 60   Washington St. W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 08, 2023 97   Washington W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 12, 2023 42   @ Oregon L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 14, 2023 209   @ Oregon St. W 69-59 82%    
  Jan 19, 2023 7   UCLA L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 21, 2023 71   USC W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 26, 2023 97   @ Washington W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 28, 2023 60   @ Washington St. L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 02, 2023 209   Oregon St. W 72-56 93%    
  Feb 04, 2023 42   Oregon W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 81   @ Stanford W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 232   @ California W 66-54 85%    
  Feb 16, 2023 50   Colorado W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 18, 2023 47   Utah W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 16   @ Arizona L 74-82 23%    
  Mar 02, 2023 7   @ UCLA L 63-73 19%    
  Mar 04, 2023 71   @ USC W 66-65 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.5 5.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.5 5.6 1.8 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.0 4.9 1.1 0.1 16.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 5.6 4.2 0.8 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.5 7.4 10.4 12.6 14.9 14.1 11.8 9.0 6.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.9% 1.1    1.0 0.1
17-3 79.3% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.0
16-4 51.1% 3.0    1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.2% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 4.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 4.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.0% 99.5% 13.9% 85.6% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 9.0% 98.9% 12.3% 86.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-6 11.8% 94.8% 9.6% 85.1% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.9 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 94.2%
13-7 14.1% 87.7% 8.4% 79.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.4 3.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 1.7 86.6%
12-8 14.9% 74.7% 6.9% 67.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.3 3.8 72.9%
11-9 12.6% 55.2% 6.0% 49.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.7 52.4%
10-10 10.4% 32.3% 4.8% 27.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.0 28.9%
9-11 7.4% 13.1% 4.2% 8.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4 9.3%
8-12 4.5% 5.8% 4.2% 1.7% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.7%
7-13 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 65.9% 8.0% 57.9% 7.9 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.4 4.9 7.3 8.7 10.1 9.9 9.3 7.3 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 34.1 63.0%