Davidson
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#119
Expected Predictive Rating+6.3#90
Pace63.2#319
Improvement+0.2#28

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#56
First Shot+6.5#34
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#286
Layup/Dunks+1.8#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#260
Freethrows+5.8#6
Improvement+0.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#215
First Shot+1.0#147
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#297
Layups/Dunks-2.4#269
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#127
Freethrows+2.2#74
Improvement+0.1#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.3% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.7% 0.6%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 12.9
.500 or above 75.0% 84.3% 62.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.8% 65.2% 52.5%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.8% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.8% 5.5%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 0.8%
First Round7.0% 8.5% 4.9%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 7
Quad 37 - 410 - 11
Quad 47 - 117 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 186   @ Wright St. W 102-97 2OT 56%     1 - 0 +7.1 +6.9 -1.0
  Nov 13, 2022 338   VMI W 75-71 95%     2 - 0 -11.0 -6.0 -4.9
  Nov 17, 2022 80   @ College of Charleston L 66-89 28%     2 - 1 -13.4 -5.2 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2022 231   South Carolina W 69-60 75%     3 - 1 +5.4 -0.1 +5.8
  Nov 20, 2022 145   Old Dominion W 66-61 58%     4 - 1 +6.5 +0.1 +6.7
  Nov 25, 2022 83   San Francisco W 89-80 51%     5 - 1 +12.4 +20.3 -7.7
  Nov 29, 2022 122   Charlotte L 66-68 OT 62%     5 - 2 -1.6 -0.5 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2022 195   @ Delaware W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 07, 2022 286   Western Carolina W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 17, 2022 3   Purdue L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 21, 2022 257   Northeastern W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 28, 2022 174   @ Fordham W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 31, 2022 72   Dayton L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 04, 2023 170   Loyola Chicago W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 11, 2023 99   Richmond W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 14, 2023 156   @ George Mason L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 17, 2023 72   @ Dayton L 59-66 26%    
  Jan 24, 2023 221   @ La Salle W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 27, 2023 46   Saint Louis L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 31, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 04, 2023 100   @ Massachusetts L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 11, 2023 174   Fordham W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 46   @ Saint Louis L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 18, 2023 192   Saint Joseph's W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 22, 2023 107   St. Bonaventure W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 26, 2023 133   @ Duquesne L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 01, 2023 198   George Washington W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 04, 2023 175   @ Rhode Island W 67-66 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.6 4.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 5.3 1.0 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.4 2.3 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.8 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.9 1.3 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.6 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.2 3.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.8 10.3 12.9 14.0 13.6 11.7 8.5 5.9 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 82.9% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 52.0% 1.8    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.4% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 80.0% 40.0% 40.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
16-2 0.6% 66.1% 18.1% 48.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 58.7%
15-3 1.6% 46.3% 20.4% 25.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 32.6%
14-4 3.5% 30.7% 16.1% 14.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.5 17.5%
13-5 5.9% 17.0% 13.1% 3.9% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 4.5%
12-6 8.5% 10.8% 9.8% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.6 1.1%
11-7 11.7% 7.9% 7.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.8 0.5%
10-8 13.6% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.8 0.0%
9-9 14.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.4
8-10 12.9% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 12.5
7-11 10.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.1
6-12 7.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.6
5-13 4.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.8
4-14 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.6% 5.9% 1.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 92.4 1.8%