Dayton
Atlantic 10
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#72
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#159
Pace60.3#351
Improvement-0.1#282

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#179
First Shot+1.8#114
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#293
Layup/Dunks+1.9#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#273
Freethrows+3.9#21
Improvement-0.1#279

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#27
First Shot+10.3#5
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#308
Layups/Dunks+5.6#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
Freethrows+3.0#39
Improvement+0.0#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 21.1% 12.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.4% 5.7% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.7
.500 or above 91.9% 92.9% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.9% 90.4% 81.2%
Conference Champion 22.3% 22.7% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four2.3% 2.3% 2.1%
First Round19.5% 20.0% 12.6%
Second Round6.0% 6.2% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 37 - 310 - 11
Quad 410 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 333   Lindenwood W 73-46 97%     1 - 0 +12.2 -3.6 +17.0
  Nov 11, 2022 153   SMU W 74-62 82%     2 - 0 +9.9 +5.5 +4.9
  Nov 15, 2022 77   @ UNLV L 52-60 41%     2 - 1 +2.0 -10.6 +12.5
  Nov 19, 2022 249   Robert Morris W 60-51 91%     3 - 1 +1.7 -9.1 +11.9
  Nov 23, 2022 34   Wisconsin L 42-43 37%     3 - 2 +10.0 -16.9 +26.8
  Nov 24, 2022 30   North Carolina St. L 64-76 31%     3 - 3 +0.8 -3.3 +3.8
  Nov 25, 2022 86   BYU L 75-79 OT 56%     3 - 4 +2.2 +5.7 -3.5
  Nov 30, 2022 315   Western Michigan W 67-47 96%     4 - 4 +8.0 -2.5 +14.0
  Dec 03, 2022 276   SE Louisiana W 74-58 94%    
  Dec 07, 2022 58   @ Virginia Tech L 58-62 36%    
  Dec 10, 2022 200   UNC Asheville W 70-58 88%    
  Dec 17, 2022 148   Wyoming W 64-58 72%    
  Dec 21, 2022 291   Alcorn St. W 70-52 95%    
  Dec 28, 2022 133   Duquesne W 68-60 78%    
  Dec 31, 2022 119   @ Davidson W 63-62 54%    
  Jan 04, 2023 192   Saint Joseph's W 69-57 87%    
  Jan 10, 2023 174   @ Fordham W 62-57 68%    
  Jan 13, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 60-56 65%    
  Jan 17, 2023 119   Davidson W 66-59 74%    
  Jan 21, 2023 198   @ George Washington W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 25, 2023 175   @ Rhode Island W 61-56 68%    
  Jan 28, 2023 99   Richmond W 61-55 70%    
  Jan 31, 2023 170   Loyola Chicago W 63-52 83%    
  Feb 04, 2023 107   @ St. Bonaventure W 60-59 51%    
  Feb 07, 2023 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-59 44%    
  Feb 10, 2023 46   Saint Louis W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 17, 2023 170   @ Loyola Chicago W 60-55 67%    
  Feb 22, 2023 100   @ Massachusetts L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 25, 2023 156   George Mason W 65-55 81%    
  Feb 28, 2023 221   La Salle W 66-52 89%    
  Mar 04, 2023 46   @ Saint Louis L 63-68 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.1 6.7 4.1 1.7 0.4 22.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.0 5.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.8 4.3 0.9 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 4.0 0.8 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.1 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.7 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.3 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.8 11.1 13.5 15.5 14.9 12.2 8.5 4.3 1.7 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.7% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 96.4% 4.1    3.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 78.5% 6.7    4.6 1.9 0.2
14-4 49.7% 6.1    2.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.4% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.3% 22.3 13.5 6.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 93.1% 45.8% 47.2% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.2%
17-1 1.7% 80.9% 33.8% 47.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 71.1%
16-2 4.3% 61.4% 29.4% 32.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 45.3%
15-3 8.5% 41.3% 25.9% 15.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 5.0 20.8%
14-4 12.2% 26.7% 21.3% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 6.9%
13-5 14.9% 19.5% 18.2% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 12.0 1.7%
12-6 15.5% 15.9% 15.5% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.1 0.4%
11-7 13.5% 12.9% 12.9% 0.1% 13.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 11.7 0.1%
10-8 11.1% 10.3% 10.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.9
9-9 7.8% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 7.2
8-10 5.0% 6.5% 6.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.7
7-11 2.9% 5.6% 5.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.6% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.6% 16.0% 4.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.8 4.8 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 79.4 5.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 95.5% 3.8 22.7 13.6 27.3 27.3 4.5