SMU
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#233
Pace70.4#137
Improvement-0.5#337

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#226
First Shot-5.9#331
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#12
Layup/Dunks+0.0#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#356
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-0.5#358

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#93
First Shot+5.0#51
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#305
Layups/Dunks+1.4#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows+1.8#77
Improvement+0.0#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.5
.500 or above 12.6% 13.9% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 22.5% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 17.7% 27.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 21 - 62 - 12
Quad 33 - 55 - 17
Quad 46 - 111 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 261   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-60 80%     1 - 0 +9.0 +3.0 +5.9
  Nov 11, 2022 74   @ Dayton L 62-74 18%     1 - 1 -1.6 +0.9 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2022 57   New Mexico L 63-84 30%     1 - 2 -14.8 -13.7 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2022 315   Evansville W 55-47 88%     2 - 2 -4.1 -18.6 +14.6
  Nov 22, 2022 122   Louisiana L 72-76 OT 52%     2 - 3 -3.6 -6.0 +2.8
  Nov 27, 2022 330   Lamar W 75-50 91%     3 - 3 +10.8 -1.8 +13.7
  Nov 30, 2022 56   @ Texas A&M L 64-83 15%     3 - 4 -6.8 -4.9 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 76-64 88%    
  Dec 07, 2022 40   Arizona St. L 62-69 27%    
  Dec 10, 2022 53   TCU L 63-71 21%    
  Dec 22, 2022 83   Iona L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 01, 2023 169   Tulsa W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 05, 2023 1   @ Houston L 49-73 2%    
  Jan 08, 2023 75   @ Central Florida L 58-67 20%    
  Jan 11, 2023 107   Tulane L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 89   Cincinnati L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 18, 2023 169   @ Tulsa L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 22, 2023 95   Wichita St. L 63-64 45%    
  Jan 26, 2023 30   @ Memphis L 62-77 9%    
  Jan 29, 2023 187   South Florida W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 01, 2023 107   @ Tulane L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 04, 2023 207   @ East Carolina L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 08, 2023 96   Temple L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 12, 2023 95   @ Wichita St. L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 16, 2023 1   Houston L 52-70 6%    
  Feb 19, 2023 207   East Carolina W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 187   @ South Florida L 63-64 45%    
  Mar 02, 2023 30   Memphis L 65-74 21%    
  Mar 05, 2023 89   @ Cincinnati L 67-75 23%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.5 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.8 5.1 0.7 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 6.3 5.1 0.9 0.0 14.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 14.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.4 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.2 6.7 10.8 13.8 15.0 15.0 12.9 9.3 5.9 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 28.9% 8.9% 20.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.0%
14-4 0.2% 11.2% 3.7% 7.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.8%
13-5 0.7% 6.4% 3.6% 2.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8%
12-6 1.8% 3.6% 2.9% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.8%
11-7 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
10-8 5.9% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-9 9.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
8-10 12.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.8
7-11 15.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.8
6-12 15.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.9
5-13 13.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
3-15 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
2-16 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.3 0.1%