Memphis
American Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#31
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#50
Pace72.3#92
Improvement+0.0#183

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#49
First Shot+4.6#61
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks+5.4#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#240
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement-0.2#317

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#30
First Shot+7.7#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#195
Layups/Dunks+7.1#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows+2.8#46
Improvement+0.2#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 8.2% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 16.8% 20.0% 6.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.7% 72.0% 50.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.2% 67.1% 43.7%
Average Seed 8.1 7.9 9.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.5% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.1% 94.2%
Conference Champion 13.3% 14.7% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four8.4% 8.2% 8.9%
First Round63.0% 68.4% 46.1%
Second Round36.7% 40.9% 23.7%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 16.2% 7.7%
Elite Eight6.3% 7.3% 3.3%
Final Four2.4% 2.9% 1.0%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 26 - 38 - 7
Quad 38 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 88   @ Vanderbilt W 76-67 64%     1 - 0 +18.0 +11.9 +6.7
  Nov 15, 2022 46   @ Saint Louis L 84-90 49%     1 - 1 +7.0 +6.3 +1.3
  Nov 20, 2022 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 62-47 81%     2 - 1 +18.4 -2.6 +21.2
  Nov 24, 2022 68   Seton Hall L 69-70 67%     2 - 2 +7.1 -1.1 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2022 91   Nebraska W 73-61 75%     3 - 2 +17.6 +6.0 +12.3
  Nov 27, 2022 81   Stanford W 56-48 72%     4 - 2 +14.6 -4.1 +19.8
  Nov 30, 2022 325   North Alabama W 87-68 98%     5 - 2 +5.5 +4.9 +0.5
  Dec 03, 2022 64   Mississippi W 72-65 76%    
  Dec 06, 2022 320   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-64 99%    
  Dec 10, 2022 29   Auburn L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 13, 2022 12   @ Alabama L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 17, 2022 56   Texas A&M W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 21, 2022 356   Alabama St. W 85-55 99.8%   
  Dec 29, 2022 185   South Florida W 74-58 94%    
  Jan 01, 2023 104   @ Tulane W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 206   East Carolina W 80-62 95%    
  Jan 11, 2023 75   @ Central Florida W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 15, 2023 95   @ Temple W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 19, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 22, 2023 89   @ Cincinnati W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 26, 2023 153   SMU W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 29, 2023 168   @ Tulsa W 80-70 80%    
  Feb 04, 2023 104   Tulane W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 08, 2023 185   @ South Florida W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 12, 2023 95   Temple W 75-64 82%    
  Feb 16, 2023 75   Central Florida W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 19, 2023 1   @ Houston L 57-69 15%    
  Feb 23, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 26, 2023 89   Cincinnati W 78-68 80%    
  Mar 02, 2023 153   @ SMU W 73-64 78%    
  Mar 05, 2023 1   Houston L 60-66 31%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 5.0 3.1 0.6 13.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 6.7 13.2 15.0 10.6 3.4 50.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.1 6.9 3.6 0.8 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.7 14.7 17.2 17.0 13.8 8.5 3.1 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 3.1    2.3 0.8
16-2 59.4% 5.0    2.6 2.4 0.0
15-3 23.0% 3.2    1.3 1.8 0.1
14-4 7.1% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.1 5.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 2.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.1% 99.8% 28.5% 71.3% 3.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 8.5% 98.8% 24.4% 74.4% 5.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
15-3 13.8% 94.4% 19.2% 75.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 93.1%
14-4 17.0% 87.0% 16.0% 71.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.3 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.1 2.2 84.6%
13-5 17.2% 74.1% 13.4% 60.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.0 3.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.4 70.1%
12-6 14.7% 55.1% 10.8% 44.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.6 49.6%
11-7 10.7% 37.7% 9.8% 28.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 6.7 31.0%
10-8 6.8% 20.6% 6.3% 14.3% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 15.2%
9-9 4.0% 11.1% 6.1% 5.0% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.6 5.3%
8-10 2.1% 3.8% 2.9% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0%
7-11 1.0% 4.6% 4.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 66.7% 14.2% 52.5% 8.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.5 8.9 10.1 11.4 9.5 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 33.3 61.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 70.8 29.2