Kansas
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#17
Expected Predictive Rating+20.9#6
Pace72.1#97
Improvement+0.1#79

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#24
First Shot+6.0#39
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#97
Layup/Dunks+3.6#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#129
Freethrows-0.5#201
Improvement+0.2#32

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#22
First Shot+6.9#28
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#88
Layups/Dunks+1.8#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#173
Freethrows+3.4#27
Improvement+0.0#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 5.1% 1.3%
#1 Seed 15.4% 19.5% 8.6%
Top 2 Seed 35.9% 42.9% 24.4%
Top 4 Seed 70.3% 77.1% 59.3%
Top 6 Seed 85.4% 90.2% 77.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.9% 98.0% 92.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.3% 97.7% 91.4%
Average Seed 3.7 3.3 4.3
.500 or above 96.9% 98.7% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 83.5% 75.6%
Conference Champion 18.3% 20.6% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.8% 3.0%
First Four2.4% 1.4% 4.0%
First Round94.9% 97.4% 90.8%
Second Round79.4% 83.4% 72.9%
Sweet Sixteen48.2% 52.2% 41.7%
Elite Eight24.2% 27.0% 19.5%
Final Four11.4% 13.1% 8.6%
Championship Game5.0% 5.9% 3.6%
National Champion2.1% 2.6% 1.3%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 9
Quad 25 - 115 - 10
Quad 32 - 017 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 289   Nebraska Omaha W 89-64 98%     1 - 0 +15.3 +10.3 +4.9
  Nov 10, 2022 302   North Dakota St. W 82-59 98%     2 - 0 +12.3 +0.8 +10.9
  Nov 15, 2022 19   Duke W 69-64 52%     3 - 0 +20.3 +1.7 +18.4
  Nov 18, 2022 179   Southern Utah W 82-76 95%     4 - 0 +2.5 -5.6 +7.3
  Nov 23, 2022 30   North Carolina St. W 80-74 62%     5 - 0 +18.8 +7.2 +11.2
  Nov 24, 2022 34   Wisconsin W 69-68 OT 68%     6 - 0 +12.0 +4.5 +7.5
  Nov 25, 2022 5   Tennessee L 50-64 40%     6 - 1 +4.6 -6.9 +10.8
  Nov 28, 2022 252   Texas Southern W 87-55 97%     7 - 1 +24.6 +17.6 +8.9
  Dec 01, 2022 68   Seton Hall W 91-65 84%     8 - 1 +31.1 +23.5 +8.0
  Dec 10, 2022 51   @ Missouri W 83-80 62%    
  Dec 17, 2022 6   Indiana W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 22, 2022 151   Harvard W 78-60 95%    
  Dec 31, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 03, 2023 27   @ Texas Tech L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 07, 2023 14   @ West Virginia L 70-73 37%    
  Jan 10, 2023 40   Oklahoma W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 33   Iowa St. W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 17, 2023 45   @ Kansas St. W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 21, 2023 52   TCU W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 23, 2023 20   @ Baylor L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 28, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 31, 2023 45   Kansas St. W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 06, 2023 4   Texas L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 40   @ Oklahoma W 67-65 59%    
  Feb 14, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 20   Baylor W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 20, 2023 52   @ TCU W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 25, 2023 14   West Virginia W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 28, 2023 27   Texas Tech W 71-65 69%    
  Mar 04, 2023 4   @ Texas L 67-73 28%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.9 5.1 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.1 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.8 6.2 2.9 0.7 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 7.1 4.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.3 3.1 6.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.3 5.5 8.1 11.1 13.5 14.4 13.8 11.5 8.1 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.3    2.2 0.2
15-3 86.2% 4.4    3.5 0.8 0.0
14-4 62.9% 5.1    3.2 1.7 0.2
13-5 34.3% 3.9    1.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 11.0% 1.5    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 11.5 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.3 3.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.6 3.9 3.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.5% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.0 3.3 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.5 1.6 5.2 5.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.4% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.1 0.5 3.1 6.0 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.5% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.9 0.1 0.9 4.4 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.1% 100.0% 10.4% 89.5% 4.7 0.2 1.5 3.2 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 8.1% 98.5% 9.3% 89.2% 6.4 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
7-11 5.5% 88.4% 8.0% 80.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 87.4%
6-12 3.3% 62.0% 6.1% 55.9% 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 59.5%
5-13 1.5% 28.0% 3.3% 24.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 25.5%
4-14 0.8% 7.9% 4.6% 3.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5%
3-15 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.9% 14.1% 81.8% 3.7 15.4 20.5 20.4 14.1 9.4 5.7 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 95.3%