Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#187
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#312
Pace73.6#73
Improvement+0.2#42

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#205
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#280
Layup/Dunks+0.0#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#279
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement+0.0#207

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#177
First Shot+3.1#83
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#320
Layups/Dunks-0.2#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#87
Freethrows-1.6#268
Improvement+0.2#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 15.3% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.4% 10.1% 31.9%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 10
Quad 21 - 62 - 16
Quad 32 - 64 - 22
Quad 43 - 27 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 202   Stetson L 74-83 64%     0 - 1 -13.7 -1.8 -12.7
  Nov 11, 2022 75   @ Central Florida L 54-68 14%     0 - 2 -3.6 -6.9 +2.4
  Nov 14, 2022 154   Troy L 72-79 55%     0 - 3 -9.1 -5.8 -3.0
  Nov 18, 2022 66   Florida L 67-76 28%     0 - 4 -3.9 -8.2 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2022 197   Mercer W 81-72 63%     1 - 4 +4.6 +6.1 -1.3
  Nov 24, 2022 194   Siena L 63-80 51%     1 - 5 -18.3 -12.2 -5.2
  Nov 25, 2022 81   Stanford L 60-70 23%     1 - 6 -3.4 -7.8 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2022 91   Nebraska L 58-75 27%     1 - 7 -11.4 -14.1 +2.9
  Nov 30, 2022 3   Purdue L 69-79 6%     1 - 8 +6.7 +0.6 +6.3
  Dec 03, 2022 13   @ Virginia L 55-76 2%    
  Dec 10, 2022 213   Louisville W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 13, 2022 348   South Carolina Upstate W 82-67 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 43   St. John's L 73-84 14%    
  Dec 21, 2022 78   Notre Dame L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 31, 2022 19   @ Duke L 61-80 4%    
  Jan 07, 2023 108   Georgia Tech L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 11, 2023 70   @ Wake Forest L 71-83 13%    
  Jan 14, 2023 13   Virginia L 58-73 10%    
  Jan 17, 2023 78   @ Notre Dame L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 21, 2023 105   @ Pittsburgh L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 24, 2023 37   Miami (FL) L 70-79 22%    
  Jan 28, 2023 76   Clemson L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 01, 2023 30   @ North Carolina St. L 69-86 6%    
  Feb 04, 2023 213   @ Louisville L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 08, 2023 96   Syracuse L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 105   Pittsburgh L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 15, 2023 76   @ Clemson L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 18, 2023 146   Boston College W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 37   @ Miami (FL) L 67-82 10%    
  Feb 27, 2023 23   North Carolina L 69-81 14%    
  Mar 04, 2023 58   @ Virginia Tech L 62-75 13%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.9 3.0 0.3 13.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 5.3 8.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 19.8 13th
14th 0.2 2.3 6.6 8.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 22.9 14th
15th 0.9 3.6 6.6 5.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 19.8 15th
Total 0.9 3.8 8.9 13.8 17.0 17.2 13.8 10.4 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.0
9-11 4.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
7-13 10.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-14 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.8
5-15 17.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.2
4-16 17.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.0
3-17 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
2-18 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
1-19 3.8% 3.8
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%