Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Tennessee 100.0%   1   22 - 6 12 - 3 24 - 7 14 - 4 +19.4      +9.1 16 +10.3 4 72.6 68 +17.2 5 +17.6 2
6 Auburn 99.2%   3   21 - 7 10 - 5 24 - 7 13 - 5 +19.0      +9.7 12 +9.4 7 72.4 75 +14.4 16 +14.9 5
7 Alabama 99.9%   2   20 - 8 12 - 3 22 - 9 14 - 4 +18.1      +14.8 1 +3.4 79 79.7 9 +15.9 11 +20.3 1
14 Kentucky 99.6%   4   20 - 8 10 - 5 22 - 9 12 - 6 +15.3      +11.7 6 +3.6 74 77.6 18 +13.6 20 +15.1 4
25 Florida 92.5%   6   20 - 8 10 - 5 22 - 9 12 - 6 +13.0      +9.2 15 +3.9 62 75.1 31 +13.5 21 +14.7 6
28 Mississippi St. 78.3%   10   19 - 9 8 - 7 20 - 11 9 - 9 +12.7      +5.1 58 +7.5 18 68.6 177 +12.3 34 +12.0 7
53 South Carolina 84.2%   10   23 - 5 11 - 4 24 - 7 12 - 6 +9.8      +4.7 67 +5.1 44 60.3 352 +16.6 6 +16.7 3
61 Texas A&M 21.3%   15 - 13 6 - 9 16 - 15 7 - 11 +8.9      +5.2 56 +3.7 69 64.7 290 +8.7 69 +6.4 10
71 Mississippi 13.8%   19 - 9 6 - 9 21 - 10 8 - 10 +7.8      +6.4 34 +1.5 130 66.9 231 +11.8 36 +8.6 9
79 Georgia 2.0%   15 - 13 5 - 10 16 - 15 6 - 12 +7.1      +3.9 87 +3.2 83 70.2 128 +7.5 83 +6.2 11
80 LSU 2.7%   15 - 13 7 - 8 17 - 14 9 - 9 +7.1      +3.3 96 +3.8 68 72.4 74 +7.8 77 +10.2 8
103 Arkansas 1.1%   14 - 14 5 - 10 15 - 16 6 - 12 +4.6      +2.6 110 +2.0 116 73.5 54 +6.0 96 +4.9 12
129 Missouri 0.6%   8 - 20 0 - 15 9 - 22 1 - 17 +2.6      +2.3 115 +0.3 161 66.8 234 -2.1 205 -9.4 14
167 Vanderbilt 0.3%   8 - 20 3 - 12 9 - 22 4 - 14 -0.2      0.0 181 -0.2 177 65.5 269 -1.4 185 +3.4 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Tennessee 1.6 56.0 37.7 2.6 1.7 1.9 0.1
Auburn 3.0 1.1 29.6 48.9 14.0 4.7 1.5 0.1
Alabama 1.4 66.4 31.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Kentucky 3.8 1.2 16.5 17.1 34.8 25.7 4.6 0.0
Florida 4.4 0.8 12.8 14.5 23.4 17.1 31.0 0.4
Mississippi St. 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.7 71.5 17.0 3.0
South Carolina 4.0 3.8 15.5 19.1 24.5 14.8 22.3
Texas A&M 9.3 8.0 15.0 33.7 31.1 11.2 1.0
Mississippi 9.0 6.9 21.1 41.3 23.4 6.7 0.6
Georgia 10.5 0.1 1.7 16.1 28.6 40.1 13.4 0.0
LSU 7.6 0.0 1.3 47.4 42.0 8.4 0.8 0.0
Arkansas 11.3 0.0 0.3 2.1 10.8 43.7 43.0 0.1
Missouri 14.0 0.7 99.3
Vanderbilt 13.0 0.0 0.7 3.3 95.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Tennessee 14 - 4 4.3 24.4 46.3 24.9
Auburn 13 - 5 0.2 4.1 28.3 67.4
Alabama 14 - 4 1.4 20.8 46.5 31.3
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.4 10.0 67.5 22.1
Florida 12 - 6 5.3 31.9 44.0 18.8
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 12.0 40.7 39.6 7.7
South Carolina 12 - 6 27.8 44.0 23.8 4.5
Texas A&M 7 - 11 17.9 39.6 32.5 10.0
Mississippi 8 - 10 11.2 35.0 38.9 14.9
Georgia 6 - 12 18.1 45.4 33.6 2.9
LSU 9 - 9 4.9 25.4 44.6 25.0
Arkansas 6 - 12 41.1 50.2 8.3 0.4
Missouri 1 - 17 40.8 44.3 13.6 1.2
Vanderbilt 4 - 14 53.0 39.1 7.6 0.3




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee 56.0% 32.7 21.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.1
Auburn 1.1% 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1
Alabama 66.4% 42.3 21.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.1
Kentucky 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1
Florida 0.8% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1
Mississippi St.
South Carolina 3.8% 0.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1
Texas A&M
Mississippi
Georgia
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1   42.5 44.8 10.5 2.0 0.2 100.0%
Auburn 99.2% 20.9% 78.4% 3   8.3 22.9 32.3 26.4 7.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.0%
Alabama 99.9% 18.0% 81.9% 2   20.2 38.6 28.2 11.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.8%
Kentucky 99.6% 11.1% 88.5% 4   0.8 4.8 19.8 41.5 26.4 5.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5%
Florida 92.5% 6.9% 85.6% 6   0.0 0.2 3.1 11.5 21.5 20.5 16.1 9.3 5.8 3.8 0.8 7.5 92.0%
Mississippi St. 78.3% 6.4% 71.9% 10   0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 5.7 11.9 15.1 17.0 17.3 5.9 0.0 21.7 76.8%
South Carolina 84.2% 3.7% 80.5% 10   0.0 0.1 1.6 3.6 12.6 18.2 24.1 18.3 5.8 15.8 83.6%
Texas A&M 21.3% 2.9% 18.4% 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.4 6.2 8.0 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 78.7 18.9%
Mississippi 13.8% 2.3% 11.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.6 7.1 0.6 0.0 86.2 11.8%
Georgia 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 98.0 0.1%
LSU 2.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.3 0.8%
Arkansas 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Missouri 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Tennessee 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.7% 75.1% 50.2% 29.3% 16.3% 8.5%
Auburn 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 93.9% 70.4% 41.4% 23.7% 13.0% 7.0%
Alabama 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 95.6% 69.3% 40.7% 21.5% 10.8% 5.3%
Kentucky 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 85.5% 51.3% 20.9% 9.3% 3.8% 1.4%
Florida 92.5% 1.9% 91.7% 61.6% 25.1% 8.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Mississippi St. 78.3% 11.9% 73.1% 41.6% 12.9% 5.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
South Carolina 84.2% 13.1% 77.0% 33.6% 7.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Texas A&M 21.3% 10.5% 15.6% 6.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 13.8% 8.7% 8.9% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LSU 2.7% 0.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.0 0.1 2.4 22.9 53.1 20.0 1.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.7 0.1 4.7 32.4 50.3 12.0 0.6 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 3.5 18.7 39.4 30.4 7.4 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.1 0.4 5.0 20.6 37.6 28.4 7.3 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 91.5% 1.7 8.5 33.7 39.4 16.0 2.2 0.1
Final Four 67.8% 0.9 32.2 48.0 17.9 1.8 0.0
Final Game 41.7% 0.5 58.3 37.7 4.0
Champion 22.7% 0.2 77.3 22.7