Texas A&M
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#20
Expected Predictive Rating+16.2#22
Pace65.7#275
Improvement-2.8#331

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#16
First Shot+0.7#165
After Offensive Rebound+8.0#1
Layup/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#292
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement-1.3#278

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#54
First Shot+5.3#41
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#242
Layups/Dunks+6.1#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#271
Freethrows+0.9#130
Improvement-1.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 10.4% 10.7% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 30.7% 31.4% 15.3%
Top 6 Seed 53.2% 54.2% 32.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.2% 86.9% 71.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.7% 85.4% 69.9%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 6.7
.500 or above 96.8% 97.3% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 84.8% 72.7%
Conference Champion 14.0% 14.2% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four4.4% 4.2% 7.9%
First Round83.9% 84.7% 67.0%
Second Round58.3% 59.1% 42.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.0% 28.5% 17.8%
Elite Eight12.2% 12.5% 6.5%
Final Four5.4% 5.5% 2.7%
Championship Game2.1% 2.2% 0.9%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 301   Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-46 98%     1 - 0 +21.3 +10.1 +14.6
  Nov 10, 2023 26   @ Ohio St. W 73-66 41%     2 - 0 +22.7 +11.5 +11.7
  Nov 14, 2023 95   @ SMU W 79-66 69%     3 - 0 +21.1 +10.4 +10.6
  Nov 17, 2023 159   Oral Roberts W 74-66 93%     4 - 0 +5.2 +7.6 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2023 115   Penn St. W 89-77 82%     5 - 0 +15.4 +23.6 -7.3
  Nov 24, 2023 13   Florida Atlantic L 89-96 41%     5 - 1 +8.5 +25.3 -17.0
  Nov 26, 2023 24   Iowa St. W 73-69 52%     6 - 1 +16.8 +5.1 +11.4
  Nov 29, 2023 30   @ Virginia L 47-59 43%     6 - 2 +3.2 -6.3 +7.3
  Dec 06, 2023 192   DePaul W 82-64 95%    
  Dec 10, 2023 37   Memphis W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 16, 2023 3   Houston L 63-69 28%    
  Dec 22, 2023 359   Houston Christian W 93-62 99.8%   
  Dec 30, 2023 248   Prairie View W 82-61 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 94   LSU W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 09, 2024 17   @ Auburn L 71-75 34%    
  Jan 13, 2024 18   Kentucky W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 16, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 20, 2024 94   @ LSU W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 23, 2024 80   Missouri W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 27, 2024 77   Mississippi W 74-65 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 33   Florida W 79-75 66%    
  Feb 07, 2024 80   @ Missouri W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 10, 2024 8   Tennessee L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 13, 2024 178   @ Vanderbilt W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 17, 2024 15   @ Alabama L 79-84 32%    
  Feb 20, 2024 46   Arkansas W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 24, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 28, 2024 73   South Carolina W 74-65 79%    
  Mar 02, 2024 88   @ Georgia W 74-69 66%    
  Mar 06, 2024 27   Mississippi St. W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 09, 2024 77   @ Mississippi W 71-68 61%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 3.9 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.1 14.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.5 1.6 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 5.4 1.3 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.0 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.2 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.3 0.4 5.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.2 7.0 9.6 12.1 15.1 15.0 12.9 9.5 5.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.9% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 72.1% 4.3    2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.3% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1
13-5 12.3% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 7.6 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.9 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.9% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.4 1.0 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 3.3 0.3 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.9% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.2 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.0% 99.3% 12.5% 86.9% 5.4 0.2 1.0 2.8 4.1 3.8 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-7 15.1% 98.1% 7.9% 90.2% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.9 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.9%
10-8 12.1% 92.8% 6.8% 86.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.9 92.3%
9-9 9.6% 85.3% 7.1% 78.2% 8.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.2 0.9 0.0 1.4 84.1%
8-10 7.0% 49.9% 5.4% 44.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 47.0%
7-11 4.2% 22.3% 4.0% 18.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3 19.0%
6-12 2.6% 5.2% 3.1% 2.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.3%
5-13 1.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2%
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 86.2% 9.9% 76.3% 5.7 3.2 7.2 9.6 10.7 11.2 11.3 10.0 7.9 6.2 5.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 84.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.6 21.4