Alabama
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#15
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#54
Pace79.9#8
Improvement-4.7#357

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#2
First Shot+9.0#11
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#37
Layup/Dunks+5.0#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows+4.8#13
Improvement-3.1#355

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#84
First Shot+3.2#81
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks-0.5#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#63
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement-1.6#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 8.5% 8.6% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 19.8% 20.1% 4.1%
Top 4 Seed 44.0% 44.4% 18.4%
Top 6 Seed 63.1% 63.5% 38.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.0% 88.3% 72.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.9% 86.2% 69.2%
Average Seed 5.0 4.9 6.6
.500 or above 94.7% 94.9% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.6% 89.8% 82.7%
Conference Champion 22.2% 22.5% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 9.0%
First Round86.6% 86.9% 68.2%
Second Round68.0% 68.4% 47.3%
Sweet Sixteen39.5% 39.9% 17.3%
Elite Eight22.0% 22.2% 8.5%
Final Four11.3% 11.4% 4.8%
Championship Game5.5% 5.6% 0.7%
National Champion2.8% 2.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 198   Morehead St. W 105-73 96%     1 - 0 +27.4 +27.4 -1.5
  Nov 10, 2023 74   Indiana St. W 102-80 85%     2 - 0 +26.3 +23.7 +1.3
  Nov 14, 2023 231   South Alabama W 102-46 97%     3 - 0 +49.8 +26.5 +24.0
  Nov 17, 2023 257   Mercer W 98-67 98%     4 - 0 +22.9 +17.2 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2023 26   Ohio St. L 81-92 61%     4 - 1 +1.7 +9.8 -7.8
  Nov 25, 2023 49   Oregon W 99-91 70%     5 - 1 +17.9 +19.2 -2.1
  Nov 28, 2023 34   Clemson L 77-85 74%     5 - 2 +0.9 +7.5 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2023 240   Arkansas St. W 93-71 98%    
  Dec 09, 2023 1   Purdue L 81-86 34%    
  Dec 16, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 80-84 37%    
  Dec 20, 2023 2   Arizona L 87-91 34%    
  Dec 23, 2023 225   Eastern Kentucky W 97-76 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 61   Liberty W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 178   @ Vanderbilt W 88-75 88%    
  Jan 09, 2024 73   South Carolina W 84-73 84%    
  Jan 13, 2024 27   @ Mississippi St. L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 16, 2024 80   Missouri W 87-75 86%    
  Jan 20, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 78-82 36%    
  Jan 24, 2024 17   Auburn W 85-81 63%    
  Jan 27, 2024 94   LSU W 87-74 88%    
  Jan 31, 2024 88   @ Georgia W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 03, 2024 27   Mississippi St. W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 07, 2024 17   @ Auburn L 82-84 42%    
  Feb 10, 2024 94   @ LSU W 84-77 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 20   Texas A&M W 84-79 68%    
  Feb 21, 2024 33   Florida W 91-84 71%    
  Feb 24, 2024 18   @ Kentucky L 87-89 43%    
  Feb 28, 2024 77   @ Mississippi W 82-77 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 8   Tennessee W 81-79 57%    
  Mar 05, 2024 33   @ Florida W 88-87 52%    
  Mar 09, 2024 46   Arkansas W 88-80 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 5.5 7.2 4.7 2.2 0.5 22.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 6.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.8 4.8 1.2 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.0 4.9 1.0 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.9 1.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.7 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.1 0.3 6.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.4 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 4.9 7.9 11.0 13.5 14.8 13.9 12.0 8.9 4.9 2.2 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
16-2 96.1% 4.7    4.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 81.2% 7.2    4.6 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.9% 5.5    2.0 2.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 13.8% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 13.6 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.2% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.9% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.6 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 8.9% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.2 2.4 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.9 1.2 3.4 3.9 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.9% 99.8% 17.8% 82.0% 3.9 0.4 1.5 3.7 4.1 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 14.8% 99.4% 15.0% 84.4% 5.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 13.5% 97.8% 10.8% 87.0% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.8 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.6%
10-8 11.0% 88.3% 10.1% 78.3% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.3 87.0%
9-9 7.9% 72.0% 10.3% 61.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 68.8%
8-10 4.9% 34.9% 4.6% 30.2% 10.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 31.7%
7-11 3.1% 13.9% 5.8% 8.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6 8.6%
6-12 1.5% 4.8% 3.9% 0.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0%
5-13 0.6% 8.9% 8.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.0% 15.3% 72.7% 5.0 8.5 11.4 12.0 12.1 10.5 8.6 7.6 5.6 4.1 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 85.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2