Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#178
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#247
Pace66.3#264
Improvement+0.3#157

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#137
First Shot+1.7#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks-3.9#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#209
Freethrows+3.3#36
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#233
First Shot-2.0#246
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#198
Layups/Dunks+0.0#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+0.3#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.2% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.1% 62.9% 71.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 21 - 62 - 18
Quad 32 - 35 - 21
Quad 44 - 19 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 290   Presbyterian L 62-68 81%     0 - 1 -16.0 -13.3 -2.8
  Nov 10, 2023 271   South Carolina Upstate W 74-67 79%     1 - 1 -2.1 +5.0 -6.2
  Nov 14, 2023 103   UNC Greensboro W 74-70 42%     2 - 1 +5.5 +6.6 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2023 348   Central Arkansas W 75-71 91%     3 - 1 -11.7 -3.6 -7.9
  Nov 23, 2023 67   North Carolina St. L 78-84 21%     3 - 2 +1.9 -1.7 +4.4
  Nov 24, 2023 81   Arizona St. L 67-82 25%     3 - 3 -8.7 +3.7 -13.2
  Nov 29, 2023 97   Boston College L 62-80 41%     3 - 4 -16.2 -3.5 -14.5
  Dec 02, 2023 344   Alabama A&M W 78-59 91%     4 - 4 +3.6 -3.0 +6.3
  Dec 06, 2023 69   San Francisco L 68-73 30%    
  Dec 16, 2023 54   Texas Tech L 66-76 19%    
  Dec 19, 2023 149   Western Carolina W 74-72 56%    
  Dec 23, 2023 37   @ Memphis L 68-83 8%    
  Dec 30, 2023 285   Dartmouth W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 06, 2024 15   Alabama L 75-88 12%    
  Jan 09, 2024 94   @ LSU L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 13, 2024 77   @ Mississippi L 64-75 17%    
  Jan 17, 2024 17   Auburn L 67-79 13%    
  Jan 20, 2024 27   @ Mississippi St. L 60-76 7%    
  Jan 27, 2024 8   Tennessee L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 31, 2024 17   @ Auburn L 64-82 5%    
  Feb 03, 2024 80   Missouri L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 06, 2024 18   Kentucky L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 10, 2024 73   @ South Carolina L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 13, 2024 20   Texas A&M L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 17, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 60-80 4%    
  Feb 21, 2024 88   Georgia L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 33   @ Florida L 69-85 8%    
  Feb 27, 2024 46   @ Arkansas L 67-81 10%    
  Mar 02, 2024 94   LSU L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 06, 2024 18   @ Kentucky L 68-86 5%    
  Mar 09, 2024 33   Florida L 72-82 20%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.7 1.1 0.1 10.8 12th
13th 0.7 3.9 8.2 7.1 2.4 0.2 22.5 13th
14th 7.5 16.9 16.9 10.3 2.7 0.3 54.6 14th
Total 7.5 17.7 20.9 20.1 14.9 9.2 5.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 21.2% 21.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.2%
10-8 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 2.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 5.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.4
5-13 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.1
4-14 14.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.9
3-15 20.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.0
2-16 20.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.9
1-17 17.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.7
0-18 7.5% 7.5
Total 100% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%