Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#20
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#15
Pace70.1#161
Improvement-0.4#223

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#87
First Shot+2.3#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#141
Layup/Dunks+0.2#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#267
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement-0.7#256

Defense
Total Defense+10.8#3
First Shot+5.1#48
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#1
Layups/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#54
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+0.2#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.0% 4.6% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 11.0% 12.6% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 30.6% 33.8% 18.1%
Top 6 Seed 51.3% 55.5% 34.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.8% 87.2% 75.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.1% 85.7% 73.1%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.7
.500 or above 98.7% 99.3% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 81.5% 70.9%
Conference Champion 11.0% 12.0% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four4.3% 3.9% 6.3%
First Round82.7% 85.5% 71.5%
Second Round57.6% 60.6% 45.8%
Sweet Sixteen29.1% 31.3% 20.1%
Elite Eight13.3% 14.5% 8.2%
Final Four5.5% 6.1% 3.2%
Championship Game2.4% 2.7% 1.1%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.3%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Away) - 80.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 27 - 212 - 8
Quad 35 - 116 - 8
Quad 46 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 86   Arizona St. W 71-56 77%     1 - 0 +20.9 +4.4 +16.7
  Nov 11, 2023 247   Tennessee Martin W 87-63 96%     2 - 0 +16.5 +4.6 +10.8
  Nov 14, 2023 242   North Alabama W 81-54 96%     3 - 0 +19.8 -2.7 +19.8
  Nov 18, 2023 64   Washington St. W 76-64 70%     4 - 0 +20.4 +6.3 +14.1
  Nov 19, 2023 62   Northwestern W 66-57 69%     5 - 0 +17.5 +2.0 +16.2
  Nov 24, 2023 240   Nicholls St. W 74-61 96%     6 - 0 +5.8 -3.8 +9.4
  Nov 28, 2023 137   @ Georgia Tech W 74-65 80%    
  Dec 03, 2023 319   Southern W 83-58 99%    
  Dec 09, 2023 92   Tulane W 80-72 78%    
  Dec 13, 2023 188   Murray St. W 78-60 96%    
  Dec 17, 2023 77   North Texas W 60-53 74%    
  Dec 23, 2023 54   Rutgers W 64-60 65%    
  Dec 31, 2023 356   Bethune-Cookman W 84-53 99.8%   
  Jan 06, 2024 80   @ South Carolina W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 10, 2024 8   Tennessee L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 13, 2024 9   Alabama L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 17, 2024 14   @ Kentucky L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 20, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 77-61 93%    
  Jan 24, 2024 25   @ Florida L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 27, 2024 21   Auburn W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 30, 2024 96   @ Mississippi W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 03, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 07, 2024 94   Georgia W 74-62 84%    
  Feb 10, 2024 93   @ Missouri W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 53   Arkansas W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 21, 2024 96   Mississippi W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 24, 2024 71   @ LSU W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 27, 2024 14   Kentucky W 73-72 55%    
  Mar 02, 2024 21   @ Auburn L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 06, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 80   South Carolina W 71-61 81%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 11.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.5 1.7 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.4 0.2 10.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.2 0.3 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.5 5.8 8.6 11.1 13.6 14.0 13.2 11.2 7.9 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.2% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 94.9% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.3% 3.6    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.2% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 9.3% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.1 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.2 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.9% 99.9% 15.9% 84.1% 2.9 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.2% 100.0% 13.7% 86.2% 3.8 0.2 1.3 3.1 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 99.9% 11.7% 88.3% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 3.6 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 14.0% 99.1% 9.4% 89.7% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 13.6% 95.0% 7.9% 87.1% 7.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.3 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 94.6%
9-9 11.1% 86.7% 5.9% 80.8% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.0 1.5 85.9%
8-10 8.6% 62.7% 4.6% 58.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 1.7 0.1 3.2 60.8%
7-11 5.8% 31.2% 4.0% 27.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.3 4.0 28.3%
6-12 3.5% 11.3% 4.2% 7.1% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 7.4%
5-13 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6%
4-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 84.8% 9.9% 74.8% 5.8 4.0 7.0 9.2 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.5 7.5 6.2 5.8 3.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 83.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.6 19.4