Tennessee
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#25
Pace69.4#177
Improvement-0.5#231

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#66
First Shot+3.0#93
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#101
Layup/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#101
Freethrows+2.0#64
Improvement-0.9#283

Defense
Total Defense+12.4#1
First Shot+13.8#1
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#278
Layups/Dunks+8.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#22
Freethrows+0.4#167
Improvement+0.4#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 4.9% 1.9%
#1 Seed 15.1% 21.2% 10.4%
Top 2 Seed 32.5% 43.1% 24.4%
Top 4 Seed 61.9% 73.6% 52.8%
Top 6 Seed 79.5% 88.3% 72.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.5% 98.1% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.6% 97.6% 92.4%
Average Seed 4.0 3.4 4.5
.500 or above 98.8% 99.6% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 96.4% 93.3%
Conference Champion 30.3% 35.1% 26.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 0.8% 2.6%
First Round94.7% 97.7% 92.4%
Second Round79.7% 85.8% 74.9%
Sweet Sixteen50.8% 57.6% 45.5%
Elite Eight28.3% 33.0% 24.7%
Final Four15.1% 18.6% 12.4%
Championship Game7.8% 10.1% 6.0%
National Champion3.9% 5.3% 2.7%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 35 - 017 - 8
Quad 45 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 304   Tennessee Tech W 80-42 99%     1 - 0 +27.2 +1.7 +25.8
  Nov 10, 2023 35   @ Wisconsin W 80-70 57%     2 - 0 +25.1 +13.5 +11.4
  Nov 14, 2023 266   Wofford W 82-61 98%     3 - 0 +12.4 +11.5 +3.1
  Nov 20, 2023 95   Syracuse W 73-56 87%     4 - 0 +22.0 -3.5 +24.1
  Nov 21, 2023 1   Purdue L 67-71 35%     4 - 1 +17.0 +1.6 +15.6
  Nov 22, 2023 4   Kansas L 60-69 42%     4 - 2 +10.1 -4.0 +14.3
  Nov 29, 2023 12   @ North Carolina L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 05, 2023 111   George Mason W 73-57 93%    
  Dec 09, 2023 31   Illinois W 72-65 76%    
  Dec 12, 2023 318   Georgia Southern W 83-54 99%    
  Dec 16, 2023 58   North Carolina St. W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 21, 2023 173   Tarleton St. W 75-55 97%    
  Jan 02, 2024 274   Norfolk St. W 79-53 99%    
  Jan 06, 2024 96   Mississippi W 74-59 91%    
  Jan 10, 2024 20   @ Mississippi St. W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 13, 2024 94   @ Georgia W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 16, 2024 25   Florida W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 20, 2024 9   Alabama W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 154   @ Vanderbilt W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 30, 2024 80   South Carolina W 72-58 89%    
  Feb 03, 2024 14   @ Kentucky L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 07, 2024 71   LSU W 73-61 86%    
  Feb 10, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 14, 2024 53   @ Arkansas W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 78-59 96%    
  Feb 20, 2024 93   @ Missouri W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 24, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 28, 2024 21   Auburn W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 02, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 76-79 40%    
  Mar 06, 2024 80   @ South Carolina W 69-61 74%    
  Mar 09, 2024 14   Kentucky W 74-70 65%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 6.4 9.5 7.6 3.9 1.1 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.4 7.1 2.9 0.4 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.5 5.5 1.8 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.4 1.7 0.1 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.8 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.8 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 5.2 8.0 11.4 14.1 15.3 15.3 12.5 8.0 3.9 1.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
16-2 95.1% 7.6    6.4 1.2 0.0
15-3 76.0% 9.5    5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 41.5% 6.4    2.1 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.6% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 19.3 8.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.1 0.9 0.2 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.0% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.5 4.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.5% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.0 4.1 5.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.3% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.6 2.1 5.0 5.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.5 0.5 2.3 5.1 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.1% 99.7% 14.1% 85.7% 4.6 0.1 0.5 2.3 4.2 3.8 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 11.4% 99.1% 12.0% 87.1% 5.8 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 8.0% 96.2% 9.5% 86.8% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.8%
9-9 5.2% 85.4% 8.5% 76.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.8 84.0%
8-10 2.8% 60.9% 4.9% 56.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.1 58.9%
7-11 1.5% 22.7% 4.5% 18.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 19.1%
6-12 0.7% 4.8% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4%
5-13 0.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.5% 17.1% 78.5% 4.0 15.1 17.5 16.2 13.1 10.2 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 94.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 90.7 9.3