Auburn
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#21
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#47
Pace72.1#113
Improvement+0.4#136

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#25
First Shot+2.3#112
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#7
Layup/Dunks+3.5#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#193
Freethrows+2.3#53
Improvement-0.2#206

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+9.5#6
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#331
Layups/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#8
Freethrows+0.3#174
Improvement+0.6#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.8% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.3% 9.8% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.5% 26.8% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 40.5% 45.1% 24.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.3% 80.1% 63.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.8% 77.8% 60.3%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 7.1
.500 or above 97.2% 98.4% 93.2%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 86.6% 78.4%
Conference Champion 13.6% 14.9% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four5.3% 5.1% 6.0%
First Round73.7% 77.7% 60.0%
Second Round51.0% 55.0% 37.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.9% 28.7% 16.3%
Elite Eight11.9% 13.4% 6.9%
Final Four5.3% 6.0% 2.7%
Championship Game2.3% 2.7% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 36 - 116 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 13   Baylor L 82-88 43%     0 - 1 +9.6 +5.9 +4.3
  Nov 10, 2023 290   SE Louisiana W 86-71 98%     1 - 1 +5.1 +1.8 +2.5
  Nov 16, 2023 156   Notre Dame W 83-59 89%     2 - 1 +24.5 +11.5 +13.1
  Nov 17, 2023 109   St. Bonaventure W 77-60 82%     3 - 1 +21.0 +9.1 +12.6
  Nov 21, 2023 350   Alabama A&M W 84-54 99%     4 - 1 +14.0 +0.7 +12.2
  Nov 29, 2023 63   Virginia Tech W 79-71 78%    
  Dec 03, 2023 117   @ Appalachian St. W 75-68 75%    
  Dec 09, 2023 68   Indiana W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 13, 2023 214   UNC Asheville W 82-66 93%    
  Dec 17, 2023 32   USC W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 22, 2023 330   Alabama St. W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 30, 2023 183   Chattanooga W 83-65 95%    
  Jan 02, 2024 189   Penn W 83-65 95%    
  Jan 06, 2024 53   @ Arkansas W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 09, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 13, 2024 71   LSU W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 17, 2024 154   @ Vanderbilt W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 20, 2024 96   Mississippi W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 24, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 80-86 30%    
  Jan 27, 2024 20   @ Mississippi St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 31, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 81-65 92%    
  Feb 03, 2024 96   @ Mississippi W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 07, 2024 9   Alabama L 83-84 50%    
  Feb 10, 2024 25   @ Florida L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 14, 2024 80   South Carolina W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 17, 2024 14   Kentucky W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 24, 2024 94   @ Georgia W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 28, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 66-72 29%    
  Mar 02, 2024 20   Mississippi St. W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 05, 2024 93   @ Missouri W 77-71 68%    
  Mar 09, 2024 94   Georgia W 79-67 84%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 3.4 4.3 3.1 1.3 0.2 13.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.1 5.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.2 5.4 1.6 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.3 1.5 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.6 1.8 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.4 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.3 2.6 0.3 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.3 6.9 10.0 12.1 14.0 14.0 13.2 10.3 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.3% 1.3    1.3 0.1
16-2 93.2% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 68.5% 4.3    2.3 1.7 0.3
14-4 33.5% 3.4    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.9% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.4 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 2.0 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.8 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.9 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.2% 99.3% 11.6% 87.7% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 3.3 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-6 14.0% 97.1% 9.2% 88.0% 6.6 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.9%
11-7 14.0% 88.0% 8.3% 79.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 1.7 86.9%
10-8 12.1% 72.4% 6.5% 65.9% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.5 1.2 0.1 3.4 70.4%
9-9 10.0% 49.8% 4.9% 44.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.2 5.0 47.2%
8-10 6.9% 24.3% 4.6% 19.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 20.7%
7-11 4.3% 8.7% 3.0% 5.6% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 5.8%
6-12 2.3% 2.9% 2.4% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5%
5-13 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 76.3% 9.5% 66.8% 6.3 3.2 5.1 6.9 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.3 7.9 7.5 6.7 4.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.7 73.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.7 13.3