Arkansas
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#53
Expected Predictive Rating+4.4#117
Pace72.8#94
Improvement-2.8#352

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#45
First Shot+5.0#57
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#138
Layup/Dunks+3.9#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#283
Freethrows+3.5#29
Improvement-1.5#319

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#72
First Shot+4.4#62
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#215
Layups/Dunks+0.7#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#25
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#93
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-1.3#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 3.8% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 11.6% 4.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.0% 45.2% 26.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.0% 42.6% 22.9%
Average Seed 8.4 8.0 8.7
.500 or above 66.1% 80.6% 59.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 60.1% 50.6%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.5% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.8% 2.9%
First Four4.9% 5.6% 4.7%
First Round29.6% 42.6% 23.8%
Second Round15.3% 22.9% 11.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 7.8% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Final Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 23 - 37 - 12
Quad 36 - 212 - 14
Quad 44 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 291   Alcorn St. W 93-59 96%     1 - 0 +24.0 +10.2 +12.7
  Nov 10, 2023 177   Gardner-Webb W 86-68 89%     2 - 0 +14.4 +5.0 +7.3
  Nov 13, 2023 181   Old Dominion W 86-77 90%     3 - 0 +5.0 +12.2 -7.3
  Nov 17, 2023 101   UNC Greensboro L 72-78 78%     3 - 1 -4.5 -1.8 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2023 98   Stanford W 77-74 2OT 69%     4 - 1 +7.7 -6.4 +13.7
  Nov 23, 2023 34   Memphis L 79-84 41%     4 - 2 +7.1 +9.9 -2.6
  Nov 24, 2023 12   North Carolina L 72-87 29%     4 - 3 +0.6 +4.6 -3.9
  Nov 29, 2023 7   Duke L 71-76 31%    
  Dec 04, 2023 115   Furman W 86-77 81%    
  Dec 09, 2023 24   Oklahoma L 71-74 38%    
  Dec 16, 2023 168   Lipscomb W 85-72 88%    
  Dec 21, 2023 151   Abilene Christian W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 30, 2023 135   UNC Wilmington W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 06, 2024 21   Auburn L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 10, 2024 94   @ Georgia W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 13, 2024 25   @ Florida L 76-82 28%    
  Jan 16, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 20, 2024 80   South Carolina W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 24, 2024 96   @ Mississippi W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 27, 2024 14   Kentucky L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 31, 2024 93   @ Missouri W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 03, 2024 71   @ LSU L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 10, 2024 94   Georgia W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 14, 2024 8   Tennessee L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 17, 2024 20   @ Mississippi St. L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 20, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 24, 2024 93   Missouri W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 27, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 81-69 86%    
  Mar 02, 2024 14   @ Kentucky L 75-84 22%    
  Mar 06, 2024 71   LSU W 76-71 67%    
  Mar 09, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 80-90 19%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.5 3.0 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 4.9 1.9 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 5.9 3.2 0.2 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.8 1.0 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.2 1.3 0.1 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 1.0 0.1 5.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.2 6.1 8.7 12.1 14.1 14.4 12.5 10.9 7.6 4.4 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 88.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 86.9% 0.2    0.2 0.1
15-3 75.7% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 39.6% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 99.5% 13.3% 86.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-5 4.4% 96.2% 8.3% 87.9% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.9%
12-6 7.6% 86.0% 6.9% 79.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 84.9%
11-7 10.9% 67.4% 6.1% 61.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.6 65.2%
10-8 12.5% 42.7% 4.5% 38.2% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.1 40.0%
9-9 14.4% 21.7% 3.3% 18.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.3 19.1%
8-10 14.1% 6.7% 3.1% 3.5% 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.1 3.6%
7-11 12.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.3%
6-12 8.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
5-13 6.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
4-14 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 13.6% 13.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 32.0% 4.2% 27.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.9 3.7 5.1 4.8 5.4 4.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 68.0 29.0%