Kentucky
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#46
Pace72.5#102
Improvement+0.2#157

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#5
First Shot+11.5#4
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#40
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#9
Freethrows-1.6#266
Improvement+1.9#24

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#51
First Shot+5.1#47
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#204
Layups/Dunks+4.7#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#261
Freethrows+2.5#44
Improvement-1.7#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.6% 8.0% 3.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.6% 19.7% 9.2%
Top 4 Seed 40.1% 45.1% 28.4%
Top 6 Seed 60.7% 66.0% 48.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.6% 90.8% 80.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.7% 89.3% 77.3%
Average Seed 5.2 4.9 5.9
.500 or above 98.2% 99.1% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 90.8% 85.4%
Conference Champion 18.4% 20.2% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.1% 2.7% 4.1%
First Round86.2% 89.6% 78.2%
Second Round66.3% 70.3% 56.8%
Sweet Sixteen37.8% 41.1% 29.9%
Elite Eight19.4% 21.3% 14.8%
Final Four9.1% 10.2% 6.3%
Championship Game4.4% 5.1% 2.7%
National Champion2.0% 2.4% 1.3%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 24 - 110 - 8
Quad 36 - 016 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 235   New Mexico St. W 86-46 97%     1 - 0 +33.3 +9.3 +24.1
  Nov 10, 2023 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-61 98%     2 - 0 +9.2 +8.9 +1.4
  Nov 14, 2023 4   Kansas L 84-89 36%     2 - 1 +14.1 +8.9 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2023 355   Stonehill W 101-67 99%     3 - 1 +16.9 +15.2 +0.0
  Nov 20, 2023 126   Saint Joseph's W 96-88 OT 92%     4 - 1 +7.8 +13.6 -6.9
  Nov 24, 2023 170   Marshall W 118-82 95%     5 - 1 +32.7 +29.6 -1.2
  Nov 28, 2023 29   Miami (FL) W 84-78 70%    
  Dec 02, 2023 135   UNC Wilmington W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 09, 2023 189   Penn W 86-69 95%    
  Dec 16, 2023 12   North Carolina L 79-80 50%    
  Dec 21, 2023 155   @ Louisville W 83-71 86%    
  Dec 29, 2023 231   Illinois St. W 82-60 98%    
  Jan 06, 2024 25   @ Florida L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 09, 2024 93   Missouri W 83-70 89%    
  Jan 13, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 17, 2024 20   Mississippi St. W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 94   Georgia W 83-70 88%    
  Jan 23, 2024 80   @ South Carolina W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 27, 2024 53   @ Arkansas W 81-78 59%    
  Jan 31, 2024 25   Florida W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 03, 2024 8   Tennessee W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 06, 2024 154   @ Vanderbilt W 82-70 86%    
  Feb 10, 2024 10   Gonzaga W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 13, 2024 96   Mississippi W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 17, 2024 21   @ Auburn L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 21, 2024 71   @ LSU W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 24, 2024 9   Alabama W 88-86 56%    
  Feb 27, 2024 20   @ Mississippi St. L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 02, 2024 53   Arkansas W 84-75 78%    
  Mar 06, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 85-67 94%    
  Mar 09, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 70-74 35%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.4 6.1 4.2 1.9 0.4 18.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.6 5.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.8 5.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.7 1.5 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 5.7 1.8 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.2 0.1 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.1 5.4 7.9 11.3 13.8 15.1 13.9 11.7 8.6 4.6 2.0 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.1% 1.9    1.9 0.1
16-2 92.6% 4.2    3.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 70.7% 6.1    3.5 2.2 0.4
14-4 37.8% 4.4    1.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.4% 18.4 10.7 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.6% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.7 2.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.6% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.3 1.9 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.7% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3.1 0.9 2.6 4.1 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.9% 99.8% 14.7% 85.2% 4.1 0.2 1.2 3.3 4.2 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 15.1% 98.9% 12.2% 86.7% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.9 4.1 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-7 13.8% 95.6% 9.5% 86.1% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 95.2%
10-8 11.3% 87.6% 7.6% 80.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.4 86.6%
9-9 7.9% 72.7% 6.8% 65.9% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.2 2.2 70.7%
8-10 5.4% 40.4% 6.5% 34.0% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 36.3%
7-11 3.1% 17.3% 6.5% 10.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 11.6%
6-12 1.4% 5.3% 1.9% 3.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.4%
5-13 0.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 87.6% 13.2% 74.4% 5.2 6.6 10.0 11.9 11.7 11.2 9.4 7.8 6.6 5.2 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 85.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.9 13.1