Florida
Southeastern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#53
Pace74.5#56
Improvement+2.6#18

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#21
First Shot+5.4#48
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#45
Layup/Dunks+6.3#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
Freethrows+2.0#67
Improvement+0.5#132

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#50
First Shot+7.4#14
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#323
Layups/Dunks+4.9#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#144
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+2.1#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.3% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 5.2% 6.9% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 16.9% 21.3% 9.8%
Top 6 Seed 32.9% 39.3% 22.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.4% 79.1% 61.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.7% 76.8% 58.5%
Average Seed 6.7 6.5 7.4
.500 or above 95.0% 97.6% 90.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 84.1% 75.9%
Conference Champion 10.9% 12.6% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four5.8% 5.3% 6.6%
First Round69.5% 76.5% 58.1%
Second Round45.4% 51.4% 35.8%
Sweet Sixteen20.8% 24.8% 14.3%
Elite Eight9.3% 11.3% 6.1%
Final Four4.1% 5.0% 2.6%
Championship Game1.7% 2.1% 1.1%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 26 - 210 - 9
Quad 35 - 115 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 308   Loyola Maryland W 93-73 98%     1 - 0 +9.0 +11.9 -3.9
  Nov 10, 2023 45   Virginia L 70-73 60%     1 - 1 +7.5 +9.1 -1.7
  Nov 14, 2023 338   Florida A&M W 89-68 99%     2 - 1 +6.4 +10.2 -4.2
  Nov 17, 2023 66   Florida St. W 89-68 78%     3 - 1 +26.1 +13.1 +11.8
  Nov 22, 2023 39   Pittsburgh W 86-71 58%     4 - 1 +26.1 +10.1 +14.5
  Nov 24, 2023 13   Baylor L 91-95 40%     4 - 2 +11.6 +17.1 -5.3
  Nov 29, 2023 76   @ Wake Forest W 82-79 62%    
  Dec 05, 2023 296   Merrimack W 81-58 99%    
  Dec 09, 2023 85   Richmond W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 14, 2023 208   East Carolina W 86-71 92%    
  Dec 19, 2023 55   Michigan W 80-76 63%    
  Dec 22, 2023 327   Grambling St. W 87-61 99%    
  Dec 30, 2023 253   Quinnipiac W 90-69 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 14   Kentucky W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 10, 2024 96   @ Mississippi W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 13, 2024 53   Arkansas W 82-76 72%    
  Jan 16, 2024 8   @ Tennessee L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 20, 2024 93   @ Missouri W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 24, 2024 20   Mississippi St. W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 27, 2024 94   Georgia W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 31, 2024 14   @ Kentucky L 78-83 32%    
  Feb 03, 2024 19   @ Texas A&M L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 10, 2024 21   Auburn W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 13, 2024 71   LSU W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 94   @ Georgia W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 9   @ Alabama L 83-90 28%    
  Feb 24, 2024 154   Vanderbilt W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 28, 2024 93   Missouri W 82-71 83%    
  Mar 02, 2024 80   @ South Carolina W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 05, 2024 9   Alabama L 86-87 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 154   @ Vanderbilt W 81-72 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.1 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.2 10.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.9 4.8 1.2 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.2 1.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.4 5.7 1.8 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 5.6 2.6 0.2 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.0 0.3 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.3 8.2 11.2 13.5 14.4 13.6 11.6 8.4 4.9 2.4 0.7 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-2 94.0% 2.3    1.8 0.4 0.0
15-3 73.4% 3.6    2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.2% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.2
13-5 8.2% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 5.7 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.9% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 3.0 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.4% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.1 0.2 0.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.6% 99.2% 12.9% 86.4% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.1 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-6 13.6% 97.1% 10.8% 86.2% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.3 3.4 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 96.7%
11-7 14.4% 89.2% 8.2% 81.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.3 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 88.3%
10-8 13.5% 74.1% 6.5% 67.6% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.6 2.9 1.4 0.1 3.5 72.3%
9-9 11.2% 52.0% 4.5% 47.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 2.2 1.8 0.1 5.4 49.8%
8-10 8.2% 22.8% 4.5% 18.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 19.1%
7-11 5.3% 5.8% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 3.0%
6-12 2.9% 4.8% 4.5% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.2%
5-13 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.4% 9.0% 63.4% 6.7 1.7 3.5 5.2 6.5 7.6 8.4 8.8 9.0 8.0 7.8 5.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 27.6 69.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.6 10.4