Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#149
Pace73.5#68
Improvement+5.7#1

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#115
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#224
Layup/Dunks-1.8#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#23
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+5.1#1

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#228
First Shot-6.4#350
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#5
Layups/Dunks-5.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement+0.6#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.3% 20.6% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 82.1% 92.7% 77.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 91.2% 83.4%
Conference Champion 23.7% 28.8% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round15.9% 20.2% 13.9%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 413 - 316 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 174   @ Louisiana L 62-72 41%     0 - 1 -7.5 -14.3 +7.3
  Nov 10, 2023 51   @ Michigan L 62-92 13%     0 - 2 -17.5 -12.6 -2.2
  Nov 17, 2023 218   Utah Tech W 75-68 70%     1 - 2 +1.6 +10.9 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2023 60   @ Dayton L 69-77 15%     1 - 3 +3.4 +5.6 -2.7
  Nov 29, 2023 193   Cleveland St. W 94-69 67%     2 - 3 +20.6 +16.5 +3.4
  Dec 02, 2023 299   @ Robert Morris W 71-57 67%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +9.5 -3.0 +12.3
  Dec 06, 2023 129   @ Ohio L 77-82 31%    
  Dec 09, 2023 302   @ Western Michigan W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 21, 2023 298   Navy W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 31, 2023 155   Oakland W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 04, 2024 186   @ Northern Kentucky L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 07, 2024 357   IUPUI W 83-66 94%    
  Jan 10, 2024 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-78 62%    
  Jan 12, 2024 130   Wright St. W 85-84 53%    
  Jan 17, 2024 155   @ Oakland L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 25, 2024 357   @ IUPUI W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 28, 2024 186   Northern Kentucky W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 01, 2024 130   @ Wright St. L 82-87 32%    
  Feb 04, 2024 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 08, 2024 278   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-75 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 287   Green Bay W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 14, 2024 299   Robert Morris W 80-69 82%    
  Feb 17, 2024 193   @ Cleveland St. L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 23, 2024 278   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 25, 2024 287   @ Green Bay W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 28, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 82-70 86%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.5 6.4 3.4 1.3 0.2 23.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.3 6.8 3.7 0.7 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.9 6.0 2.4 0.3 16.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.2 5.1 1.7 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.8 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.2 1.0 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.5 8.9 12.1 14.0 14.3 13.7 10.6 7.2 3.5 1.3 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
17-3 97.9% 3.4    3.2 0.2
16-4 89.6% 6.4    5.0 1.5 0.0
15-5 61.7% 6.5    3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 32.0% 4.4    1.4 2.1 0.8 0.2
13-7 8.6% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 14.8 6.8 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 81.4% 75.2% 6.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 25.0%
18-2 1.3% 54.3% 54.2% 0.1% 12.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.3%
17-3 3.5% 48.0% 48.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8
16-4 7.2% 33.7% 33.7% 13.4 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2 4.8
15-5 10.6% 27.4% 27.4% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 7.7
14-6 13.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 11.2
13-7 14.3% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 12.0
12-8 14.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 12.4
11-9 12.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 11.0
10-10 8.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.1 0.4 8.4
9-11 6.5% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.2
8-12 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.0
7-13 2.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-14 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 5.4 4.1 2.1 83.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 97.8% 9.7 13.3 13.3 4.4 13.3 42.2 11.1