Michigan
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#55
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#95
Pace68.6#194
Improvement-4.4#360

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#26
First Shot+6.9#27
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#182
Layup/Dunks+2.5#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#39
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement-2.9#355

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#103
First Shot+4.3#65
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#296
Layups/Dunks+5.8#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#250
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement-1.5#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 3.3% 5.7% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 9.7% 15.8% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.9% 48.0% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.3% 45.5% 24.8%
Average Seed 8.1 7.7 8.6
.500 or above 48.0% 64.1% 38.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 47.5% 35.5%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 5.1% 8.6%
First Four5.8% 6.4% 5.5%
First Round32.0% 44.9% 24.6%
Second Round17.0% 25.0% 12.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 8.7% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.0% 1.4%
Final Four0.7% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 54 - 11
Quad 25 - 39 - 14
Quad 33 - 112 - 15
Quad 44 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 214   UNC Asheville W 99-74 91%     1 - 0 +19.5 +20.8 -2.0
  Nov 10, 2023 217   Youngstown St. W 92-62 91%     2 - 0 +24.4 +5.8 +16.0
  Nov 13, 2023 57   @ St. John's W 89-73 40%     3 - 0 +28.1 +17.7 +9.9
  Nov 17, 2023 136   Long Beach St. L 86-94 84%     3 - 1 -9.2 +3.8 -12.3
  Nov 22, 2023 34   Memphis L 67-71 39%     3 - 2 +8.1 +1.3 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2023 98   Stanford W 83-78 67%     4 - 2 +9.7 +13.6 -3.7
  Nov 24, 2023 51   Texas Tech L 57-73 47%     4 - 3 -6.0 -1.1 -6.9
  Dec 02, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 74-78 36%    
  Dec 05, 2023 68   Indiana W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 10, 2023 37   @ Iowa L 81-86 32%    
  Dec 16, 2023 292   Eastern Michigan W 83-64 96%    
  Dec 19, 2023 25   Florida L 76-80 37%    
  Dec 29, 2023 179   McNeese St. W 77-64 89%    
  Jan 04, 2024 128   Minnesota W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 07, 2024 90   Penn St. W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 11, 2024 59   @ Maryland L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 15, 2024 27   Ohio St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 18, 2024 31   Illinois L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 23, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 66-81 10%    
  Jan 26, 2024 37   Iowa W 84-83 54%    
  Jan 30, 2024 17   @ Michigan St. L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 03, 2024 54   Rutgers W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 07, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 10, 2024 52   @ Nebraska L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 13, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 17, 2024 17   Michigan St. L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 22, 2024 62   @ Northwestern L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 25, 2024 1   Purdue L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 29, 2024 54   @ Rutgers L 66-69 39%    
  Mar 03, 2024 27   @ Ohio St. L 70-77 29%    
  Mar 10, 2024 52   Nebraska W 76-74 58%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.5 3.0 4.6 1.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 4.3 4.0 0.8 0.0 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.1 1.5 0.0 9.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.5 1.4 0.1 8.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.2 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 4.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.7 11.6 13.1 12.9 11.9 10.1 7.0 5.3 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 74.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 76.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 47.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 21.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.6% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.9% 99.8% 9.3% 90.5% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 5.3% 99.1% 6.2% 92.9% 6.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.0%
12-8 7.0% 93.0% 6.0% 87.0% 7.6 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 92.6%
11-9 10.1% 80.0% 5.3% 74.7% 8.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.1 2.0 78.9%
10-10 11.9% 50.6% 4.5% 46.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.9 48.2%
9-11 12.9% 18.1% 3.5% 14.6% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 15.1%
8-12 13.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6 1.1%
7-13 11.6% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.3 0.1%
6-14 8.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.5
5-15 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-16 4.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-17 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 34.9% 3.9% 31.0% 8.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.2 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 65.1 32.3%