Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#207
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#80
Pace71.8#120
Improvement-1.1#284

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#202
First Shot+0.0#168
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#233
Layup/Dunks+0.6#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#100
Freethrows-1.7#278
Improvement-0.9#285

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#204
First Shot+1.4#124
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#328
Layups/Dunks+0.9#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#262
Freethrows-0.4#223
Improvement-0.2#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 9.3% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 83.6% 87.2% 67.7%
.500 or above in Conference 70.6% 75.3% 49.9%
Conference Champion 9.8% 11.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.9% 4.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round8.4% 9.1% 5.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 81.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 415 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 182   @ DePaul W 82-74 OT 34%     1 - 0 +9.9 +3.9 +5.4
  Nov 12, 2023 303   Texas A&M - Commerce W 86-64 79%     2 - 0 +11.2 +6.2 +4.1
  Nov 17, 2023 248   Northern Arizona W 77-67 59%     3 - 0 +5.5 -5.5 +9.8
  Nov 18, 2023 293   South Dakota W 93-81 68%     4 - 0 +4.9 +13.7 -9.1
  Nov 22, 2023 72   @ San Francisco L 60-76 12%     4 - 1 -5.5 -6.0 +0.5
  Nov 29, 2023 321   Green Bay W 73-63 82%    
  Dec 02, 2023 134   @ Oakland L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 06, 2023 339   @ Southern Indiana W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 09, 2023 340   Southeast Missouri St. W 84-71 88%    
  Dec 16, 2023 356   Bethune-Cookman W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 20, 2023 39   @ Pittsburgh L 68-84 7%    
  Dec 29, 2023 205   Northern Kentucky W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 31, 2023 310   Detroit Mercy W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 06, 2024 131   Wright St. L 80-82 45%    
  Jan 10, 2024 217   @ Youngstown St. L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 12, 2024 272   @ Robert Morris W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 17, 2024 351   IUPUI W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 20, 2024 164   @ Cleveland St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 25, 2024 205   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 01, 2024 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 04, 2024 217   Youngstown St. W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 07, 2024 164   Cleveland St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 10, 2024 351   @ IUPUI W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 14, 2024 134   Oakland L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 17, 2024 310   @ Detroit Mercy W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 23, 2024 321   @ Green Bay W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 25, 2024 261   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80-79 51%    
  Feb 28, 2024 131   @ Wright St. L 77-85 26%    
  Mar 02, 2024 272   Robert Morris W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 5.9 2.6 0.4 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.6 5.3 7.8 9.9 10.9 12.6 12.0 11.0 9.2 6.7 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 98.8% 1.0    0.9 0.1
17-3 86.2% 2.2    1.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 64.6% 2.8    1.7 1.0 0.1
15-5 33.2% 2.2    0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 11.1% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 72.5% 67.5% 5.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4%
19-1 0.3% 50.7% 48.6% 2.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.1%
18-2 1.0% 40.7% 40.0% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0%
17-3 2.5% 32.2% 32.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7
16-4 4.4% 24.9% 24.9% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.3
15-5 6.7% 17.4% 17.4% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.5
14-6 9.2% 14.6% 14.6% 14.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 7.9
13-7 11.0% 11.1% 11.1% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 9.8
12-8 12.0% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 11.2
11-9 12.6% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.9
10-10 10.9% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 10.4
9-11 9.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 9.6
8-12 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 5.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.3
6-14 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 1.0 91.4 0.0%