Oakland
Horizon
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#145
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#120
Pace67.7#205
Improvement-1.0#234

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#142
First Shot+1.7#135
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#206
Layup/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows-0.6#220
Improvement-1.8#285

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#168
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#210
Layups/Dunks+4.5#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#276
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#324
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement+0.8#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.8% 20.9% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.5% 100.0% 57.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.8% 20.9% 16.9%
Second Round1.6% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 20 - 11 - 5
Quad 36 - 47 - 9
Quad 413 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 55   @ Ohio St. L 73-79 15%     0 - 1 +6.3 +9.0 -3.0
  Nov 10, 2023 12   @ Illinois L 53-64 6%     0 - 2 +7.9 -9.6 +16.2
  Nov 14, 2023 246   Bowling Green W 81-62 78%     1 - 2 +12.2 -0.1 +10.9
  Nov 19, 2023 60   Drake L 77-85 24%     1 - 3 +0.9 +2.0 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2023 157   Loyola Marymount W 74-69 54%     2 - 3 +5.4 +7.2 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2023 239   Marshall W 78-71 69%     3 - 3 +3.1 -1.3 +3.9
  Nov 27, 2023 50   @ Xavier W 78-76 15%     4 - 3 +14.7 +14.5 +0.3
  Nov 29, 2023 353   @ Detroit Mercy W 65-50 89%     5 - 3 +3.0 -10.5 +14.5
  Dec 02, 2023 171   Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-98 67%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -24.2 +0.7 -24.3
  Dec 06, 2023 148   Toledo L 68-69 61%     5 - 5 -2.6 -8.5 +5.8
  Dec 08, 2023 326   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-63 80%     6 - 5 +6.5 +3.9 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2023 18   @ Michigan St. L 62-79 8%     6 - 6 +0.3 +9.0 -11.5
  Dec 20, 2023 41   @ Dayton L 67-91 13%     6 - 7 -10.3 +7.9 -21.3
  Dec 28, 2023 206   @ Cleveland St. L 67-75 55%     6 - 8 0 - 2 -7.8 -12.6 +5.4
  Dec 31, 2023 133   @ Youngstown St. W 88-81 36%     7 - 8 1 - 2 +12.0 +17.9 -5.8
  Jan 04, 2024 243   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 100-95 78%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -1.8 +6.9 -9.4
  Jan 06, 2024 227   Green Bay W 79-73 76%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +0.0 +7.1 -6.8
  Jan 10, 2024 185   Northern Kentucky W 70-65 OT 70%     10 - 8 4 - 2 +0.8 -12.4 +12.5
  Jan 13, 2024 361   @ IUPUI W 88-66 93%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +7.1 +8.7 -1.6
  Jan 17, 2024 133   Youngstown St. W 70-67 57%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +2.6 +2.3 +0.5
  Jan 25, 2024 227   @ Green Bay L 59-69 57%     12 - 9 6 - 3 -10.6 -6.0 -6.0
  Jan 27, 2024 243   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 91-87 2OT 60%     13 - 9 7 - 3 +2.7 -0.7 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2024 305   Robert Morris W 87-72 86%     14 - 9 8 - 3 +4.5 +15.2 -9.4
  Feb 03, 2024 206   Cleveland St. W 83-71 74%     15 - 9 9 - 3 +6.7 +13.9 -5.9
  Feb 08, 2024 185   @ Northern Kentucky L 89-99 OT 51%     15 - 10 9 - 4 -8.8 +8.3 -16.0
  Feb 10, 2024 153   @ Wright St. W 74-60 42%     16 - 10 10 - 4 +17.4 +0.6 +17.5
  Feb 14, 2024 171   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 71-63 47%     17 - 10 11 - 4 +10.2 +5.7 +5.1
  Feb 17, 2024 361   IUPUI W 107-59 97%     18 - 10 12 - 4 +27.7 +29.3 +0.3
  Feb 22, 2024 305   @ Robert Morris W 63-43 73%     19 - 10 13 - 4 +14.9 -9.7 +25.8
  Feb 25, 2024 153   Wright St. L 75-96 63%     19 - 11 13 - 5 -23.0 -10.9 -10.4
  Mar 02, 2024 353   Detroit Mercy W 82-63 96%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.1 96.3 98.5 1st
2nd 1.5 1.5 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.7 96.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 96.3    56.1 40.2
13-7 57.8% 2.1    2.1
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 98.5% 98.5 56.1 40.2 2.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 96.3% 20.9% 20.9% 13.2 0.0 1.9 11.8 6.1 0.3 76.2
13-7 3.7% 16.9% 16.9% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 1.9 12.1 6.4 0.4 79.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 96.3% 20.9% 13.2 0.0 1.9 12.3 6.4 0.3
Lose Out 3.7% 16.9% 13.6 0.4 6.9 8.6 0.9