Louisiana
Sun Belt
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#152
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#144
Pace66.7#249
Improvement-0.4#224

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#100
First Shot+2.2#119
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#28
Freethrows-2.1#294
Improvement+1.2#63

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#229
First Shot-1.7#233
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#194
Layups/Dunks-5.9#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#36
Freethrows+0.1#188
Improvement-1.6#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 75.5% 86.4% 67.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 81.8% 71.2%
Conference Champion 9.2% 12.0% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 1.7%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round7.6% 9.4% 6.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 41.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 217   Youngstown St. W 72-62 73%     1 - 0 +4.4 -9.6 +13.5
  Nov 11, 2023 112   @ Toledo L 78-87 28%     1 - 1 -2.2 +5.6 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2023 131   Wright St. L 85-91 43%     1 - 2 -3.6 +6.4 -9.7
  Nov 21, 2023 312   Buffalo W 68-60 80%     2 - 2 -0.4 -0.7 +1.3
  Nov 22, 2023 136   Long Beach St. W 92-82 46%     3 - 2 +11.8 +21.9 -9.8
  Nov 30, 2023 161   @ Samford L 77-79 41%    
  Dec 09, 2023 104   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-74 27%    
  Dec 13, 2023 219   Eastern Kentucky W 79-73 72%    
  Dec 17, 2023 179   @ McNeese St. L 69-70 45%    
  Dec 22, 2023 249   @ Rice W 79-77 58%    
  Dec 30, 2023 170   @ Marshall L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 04, 2024 67   James Madison L 79-83 34%    
  Jan 06, 2024 305   Coastal Carolina W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 10, 2024 212   @ Troy W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 213   @ Arkansas St. W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 17, 2024 216   @ Texas St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 194   @ South Alabama L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 25, 2024 213   Arkansas St. W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 27, 2024 216   Texas St. W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 31, 2024 281   Louisiana Monroe W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 03, 2024 194   South Alabama W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 07, 2024 186   Georgia St. W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 15, 2024 181   @ Old Dominion L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 17, 2024 117   @ Appalachian St. L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 22, 2024 281   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 24, 2024 202   @ Southern Miss L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 28, 2024 212   Troy W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 01, 2024 202   Southern Miss W 74-68 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.4 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.2 0.7 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.4 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.4 0.1 6.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 4.2 6.6 8.8 11.5 12.7 13.5 12.6 10.4 7.1 4.4 2.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.6% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 83.3% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 61.2% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.5% 2.4    0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 4.8 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 47.8% 31.3% 16.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.9%
17-1 0.9% 35.5% 31.8% 3.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 5.3%
16-2 2.4% 27.4% 27.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.2%
15-3 4.4% 19.7% 19.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 3.5
14-4 7.1% 15.0% 15.0% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.0
13-5 10.4% 12.0% 12.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.1
12-6 12.6% 9.9% 9.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.3
11-7 13.5% 7.2% 7.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.6
10-8 12.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 12.1
9-9 11.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.2
8-10 8.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.2 8.6
7-11 6.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 4.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.2
5-13 2.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 92.2 0.1%