Navy
Patriot League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#323
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#325
Pace64.4#293
Improvement-2.6#291

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#319
First Shot-6.4#334
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#143
Layup/Dunks-0.3#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#355
Freethrows+2.1#54
Improvement+1.3#111

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#284
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#319
Layups/Dunks-2.0#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#41
Freethrows-2.9#330
Improvement-3.9#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Away) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 410 - 1210 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 294   @ Campbell L 48-59 31%     0 - 1 -15.5 -18.3 +0.6
  Nov 10, 2023 179   Temple L 68-75 29%     0 - 2 -10.8 -3.2 -7.9
  Nov 18, 2023 114   @ UC San Diego L 55-73 8%     0 - 3 -11.7 -12.6 -0.4
  Nov 20, 2023 257   @ San Diego L 59-67 23%     0 - 4 -10.0 -12.7 +2.5
  Nov 29, 2023 358   VMI W 67-47 81%     1 - 4 +1.2 -15.0 +15.2
  Dec 03, 2023 359   Coppin St. W 75-52 81%     2 - 4 +4.1 -2.5 +6.7
  Dec 05, 2023 231   @ George Washington L 77-79 OT 20%     2 - 5 -2.7 -6.6 +4.1
  Dec 08, 2023 191   @ Quinnipiac L 68-71 16%     2 - 6 -2.2 -8.7 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2023 133   @ Youngstown St. L 65-75 9%     2 - 7 -5.0 -2.4 -3.3
  Dec 30, 2023 318   William & Mary W 77-65 60%     3 - 7 -0.2 +0.4 -0.2
  Jan 03, 2024 295   Boston University W 62-60 51%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -8.0 -9.3 +1.4
  Jan 06, 2024 141   Colgate L 72-80 21%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -9.2 +1.2 -10.5
  Jan 10, 2024 348   @ Holy Cross W 80-70 54%     5 - 8 2 - 1 -0.7 +5.6 -5.6
  Jan 13, 2024 307   @ Lafayette L 62-78 34%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -21.4 -8.2 -13.7
  Jan 17, 2024 271   Lehigh W 71-69 44%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -6.2 -2.8 -3.4
  Jan 20, 2024 330   Army W 57-53 66%     7 - 9 4 - 2 -9.9 -9.8 +0.6
  Jan 24, 2024 292   @ Bucknell L 63-71 30%     7 - 10 4 - 3 -12.3 -0.3 -13.4
  Jan 27, 2024 343   Loyola Maryland L 70-74 71%     7 - 11 4 - 4 -19.5 +3.0 -23.2
  Jan 31, 2024 271   @ Lehigh L 65-77 25%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -14.8 -5.0 -10.3
  Feb 03, 2024 141   @ Colgate L 64-88 10%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -19.8 -1.9 -19.3
  Feb 07, 2024 292   Bucknell L 67-80 50%     7 - 14 4 - 7 -22.8 -8.4 -14.7
  Feb 10, 2024 330   @ Army L 67-69 OT 45%     7 - 15 4 - 8 -10.4 -7.7 -2.6
  Feb 14, 2024 261   American L 42-59 43%     7 - 16 4 - 9 -24.8 -27.2 -1.1
  Feb 17, 2024 295   @ Boston University L 65-74 31%     7 - 17 4 - 10 -13.5 +4.1 -19.3
  Feb 21, 2024 343   @ Loyola Maryland W 69-62 51%     8 - 17 5 - 10 -3.0 -1.0 -1.4
  Feb 25, 2024 348   Holy Cross W 76-66 73%     9 - 17 6 - 10 -6.1 -4.0 -1.9
  Feb 28, 2024 307   Lafayette W 62-58 54%     10 - 17 7 - 10 -6.8 -5.6 -0.8
  Mar 02, 2024 261   @ American L 62-69 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 76.4 23.6 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 76.4 23.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 23.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.3
7-11 76.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.6 75.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 23.6% 1.3% 16.0 1.3
Lose Out 76.4% 0.8% 16.0 0.8