Ohio
Mid-American
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#129
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#141
Pace69.9#165
Improvement-0.4#215

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#72
First Shot+0.4#170
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#23
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#198
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement-0.6#230

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#226
First Shot+1.4#127
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#342
Layups/Dunks+1.5#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#139
Freethrows-2.2#298
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 18.5% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.8
.500 or above 93.0% 96.0% 86.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 89.6% 82.0%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.9% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round16.6% 18.4% 12.6%
Second Round2.4% 2.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 56 - 7
Quad 413 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 189   Troy W 88-70 74%     1 - 0 +13.7 +7.0 +5.3
  Nov 11, 2023 193   @ Cleveland St. L 78-82 53%     1 - 1 -2.4 +11.2 -13.9
  Nov 18, 2023 323   Detroit Mercy W 71-52 90%     2 - 1 +7.1 -7.9 +15.4
  Nov 24, 2023 162   George Washington L 94-99 2OT 59%     2 - 2 -4.9 -5.2 +1.7
  Nov 25, 2023 221   Middle Tennessee W 80-68 68%     3 - 2 +9.6 +16.2 -5.5
  Nov 26, 2023 232   Brown W 82-77 71%     4 - 2 +1.8 +9.3 -7.5
  Dec 02, 2023 156   Delaware W 74-73 69%     5 - 2 -1.7 +2.0 -3.7
  Dec 06, 2023 158   Youngstown St. W 82-77 69%    
  Dec 09, 2023 196   Marshall W 83-76 75%    
  Dec 22, 2023 275   @ Austin Peay W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 30, 2023 123   Davidson L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 02, 2024 120   Toledo W 82-80 59%    
  Jan 06, 2024 160   Northern Illinois W 84-79 68%    
  Jan 09, 2024 230   @ Bowling Green W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 13, 2024 302   @ Western Michigan W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 16, 2024 319   Central Michigan W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 20, 2024 294   Eastern Michigan W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 23, 2024 113   @ Akron L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 27, 2024 108   @ Kent St. L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 30, 2024 321   Buffalo W 83-69 90%    
  Feb 03, 2024 252   Miami (OH) W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 06, 2024 253   @ Ball St. W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 120   @ Toledo L 79-83 38%    
  Feb 20, 2024 108   Kent St. W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 24, 2024 160   @ Northern Illinois L 81-82 48%    
  Feb 27, 2024 113   Akron W 74-72 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 230   Bowling Green W 81-72 78%    
  Mar 05, 2024 321   @ Buffalo W 80-72 77%    
  Mar 08, 2024 252   @ Miami (OH) W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 2.2 5.3 5.9 4.2 1.4 0.3 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.0 5.3 1.6 0.2 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.3 4.1 0.5 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.6 3.4 0.4 13.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.5 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.3 3.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.7 5.8 8.4 11.2 14.3 15.0 13.7 11.1 7.4 4.4 1.4 0.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 96.2% 4.2    3.9 0.4
15-3 78.7% 5.9    4.0 1.7 0.2
14-4 47.7% 5.3    2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.0% 2.2    0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.3 5.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 58.9% 54.4% 4.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.7%
17-1 1.4% 53.1% 52.2% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.8%
16-2 4.4% 40.0% 40.0% 12.4 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 2.6
15-3 7.4% 32.2% 32.2% 12.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1
14-4 11.1% 25.1% 25.1% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 8.3
13-5 13.7% 20.9% 20.9% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 10.8
12-6 15.0% 16.3% 16.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 12.6
11-7 14.3% 11.4% 11.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 12.6
10-8 11.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.3
9-9 8.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.8
8-10 5.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.5
7-11 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.6 4.8 2.1 0.6 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 68.2% 8.0 6.8 20.5 1.1 14.8 5.7 6.8 6.8 5.7