Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#130
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#190
Pace76.6#34
Improvement+0.4#152

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#56
First Shot+5.4#52
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#182
Layup/Dunks+1.9#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#261
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement-0.4#210

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#267
First Shot-3.7#290
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#116
Layups/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#238
Freethrows-0.1#196
Improvement+0.8#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 29.5% 25.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 87.8% 91.7% 77.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 92.9% 88.5%
Conference Champion 35.7% 38.3% 29.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.8%
First Round27.8% 29.2% 24.3%
Second Round3.3% 3.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 21   @ Colorado St. L 77-105 10%     0 - 1 -11.8 +3.1 -12.7
  Nov 14, 2023 120   Toledo L 77-78 59%     0 - 2 -1.0 +4.9 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2023 64   @ Indiana L 80-89 20%     0 - 3 +2.2 +8.1 -5.3
  Nov 20, 2023 174   Louisiana W 91-85 61%     1 - 3 +5.5 +12.1 -6.9
  Nov 21, 2023 100   Hofstra L 76-85 41%     1 - 4 -4.3 +4.2 -8.4
  Nov 22, 2023 214   Illinois St. W 74-49 67%     2 - 4 +22.8 +1.7 +20.7
  Nov 29, 2023 357   IUPUI W 103-74 96%     3 - 4 +11.7 +19.5 -8.4
  Dec 02, 2023 123   @ Davidson L 73-82 37%     3 - 5 -3.2 +5.7 -9.4
  Dec 12, 2023 183   Western Kentucky W 86-80 72%    
  Dec 19, 2023 252   Miami (OH) W 85-75 83%    
  Dec 29, 2023 287   @ Green Bay W 76-70 72%    
  Dec 31, 2023 278   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-81 70%    
  Jan 04, 2024 193   Cleveland St. W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 06, 2024 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 82-83 49%    
  Jan 10, 2024 299   @ Robert Morris W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 12, 2024 158   @ Youngstown St. L 84-85 47%    
  Jan 18, 2024 287   Green Bay W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 20, 2024 278   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90-78 86%    
  Jan 25, 2024 193   @ Cleveland St. W 79-78 52%    
  Jan 28, 2024 357   @ IUPUI W 85-71 89%    
  Feb 01, 2024 158   Youngstown St. W 87-82 68%    
  Feb 04, 2024 186   @ Northern Kentucky W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 08, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 87-73 91%    
  Feb 10, 2024 155   Oakland W 84-79 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 299   Robert Morris W 84-71 88%    
  Feb 22, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 25, 2024 155   @ Oakland L 81-82 47%    
  Feb 28, 2024 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-80 70%    
  Mar 02, 2024 186   Northern Kentucky W 80-74 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.4 8.8 9.9 6.8 2.9 0.6 35.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 8.1 3.9 1.1 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.3 5.8 2.0 0.3 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.2 1.3 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 4.2 6.4 9.3 11.9 14.1 15.6 13.0 11.0 6.9 2.9 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 100.0% 2.9    2.9 0.0
17-3 98.7% 6.8    6.4 0.4
16-4 90.3% 9.9    7.8 2.0 0.1
15-5 67.5% 8.8    4.9 3.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 34.5% 5.4    1.7 2.4 1.1 0.2
13-7 8.9% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.7% 35.7 24.4 8.8 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 76.6% 72.9% 3.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 13.9%
18-2 2.9% 64.6% 64.2% 0.4% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.0 1.2%
17-3 6.9% 49.5% 49.5% 12.8 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.5
16-4 11.0% 46.5% 46.5% 13.3 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.8 0.2 5.9
15-5 13.0% 35.6% 35.6% 13.7 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.4
14-6 15.6% 30.2% 30.2% 14.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.1 0.1 10.9
13-7 14.1% 23.9% 23.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.3 10.7
12-8 11.9% 18.2% 18.2% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 9.8
11-9 9.3% 14.3% 14.3% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 7.9
10-10 6.4% 11.0% 11.0% 15.8 0.1 0.6 5.7
9-11 4.2% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.9
8-12 2.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.1 1.9
7-13 1.2% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.1 1.1
6-14 0.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.5 9.2 5.6 2.5 71.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 78.4% 10.5 4.8 2.2 2.6 3.5 10.4 37.2 15.6 2.2