Green Bay
Horizon
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#227
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#176
Pace60.3#353
Improvement+1.6#118

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#217
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks+1.1#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#73
Freethrows-2.3#327
Improvement+2.0#78

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#229
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks-1.8#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-1.5#281
Improvement-0.4#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 43.9% 100.0% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.6% 5.2% 4.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 37 - 47 - 7
Quad 49 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 13   @ Iowa St. L 44-85 3%     0 - 1 -22.2 -12.7 -13.3
  Nov 14, 2023 304   @ Valparaiso L 59-64 57%     0 - 2 -10.0 -12.8 +2.5
  Nov 20, 2023 252   @ Montana St. W 54-53 OT 45%     1 - 2 -0.9 -15.0 +14.2
  Nov 21, 2023 212   UC Riverside L 68-74 48%     1 - 3 -8.8 +0.5 -9.9
  Nov 25, 2023 166   St. Thomas W 64-51 49%     2 - 3 +10.1 -7.3 +18.2
  Nov 29, 2023 171   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 71-75 30%     2 - 4 -1.8 +4.0 -6.0
  Dec 02, 2023 243   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-58 63%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +5.2 +2.8 +4.3
  Dec 06, 2023 291   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-78 54%     3 - 5 -13.2 -2.3 -11.4
  Dec 09, 2023 269   Western Illinois L 59-68 68%     3 - 6 -17.2 -3.2 -15.9
  Dec 12, 2023 196   @ Illinois-Chicago W 70-68 36%     4 - 6 +2.5 +3.7 -1.1
  Dec 16, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma L 47-81 6%     4 - 7 -19.6 -16.6 -3.6
  Dec 29, 2023 153   Wright St. W 88-77 45%     5 - 7 2 - 0 +9.0 +9.2 -0.1
  Dec 31, 2023 305   Robert Morris W 78-61 76%     6 - 7 3 - 0 +6.5 +7.5 +0.9
  Jan 04, 2024 353   @ Detroit Mercy W 69-51 80%     7 - 7 4 - 0 +6.0 -0.2 +9.0
  Jan 06, 2024 145   @ Oakland L 73-79 24%     7 - 8 4 - 1 -1.9 +5.5 -7.7
  Jan 10, 2024 361   @ IUPUI W 68-58 86%     8 - 8 5 - 1 -4.9 +4.9 -7.4
  Jan 14, 2024 206   Cleveland St. W 79-71 58%     9 - 8 6 - 1 +2.7 +6.0 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2024 153   @ Wright St. W 88-81 26%     10 - 8 7 - 1 +10.4 +13.7 -3.1
  Jan 20, 2024 185   @ Northern Kentucky L 52-74 33%     10 - 9 7 - 2 -20.8 -11.1 -12.9
  Jan 25, 2024 145   Oakland W 69-59 43%     11 - 9 8 - 2 +8.6 +4.7 +5.4
  Jan 27, 2024 353   Detroit Mercy W 78-64 90%     12 - 9 9 - 2 -3.4 -3.3 +0.1
  Feb 01, 2024 361   IUPUI W 79-56 93%     13 - 9 10 - 2 +2.7 +4.0 +0.7
  Feb 08, 2024 305   @ Robert Morris W 81-76 OT 57%     14 - 9 11 - 2 -0.1 -1.3 +0.8
  Feb 10, 2024 133   @ Youngstown St. W 84-83 22%     15 - 9 12 - 2 +6.0 +13.6 -7.6
  Feb 14, 2024 185   Northern Kentucky L 57-58 54%     15 - 10 12 - 3 -5.2 -9.5 +4.1
  Feb 23, 2024 171   Purdue Fort Wayne L 59-85 50%     15 - 11 12 - 4 -29.2 -9.8 -21.7
  Feb 25, 2024 133   Youngstown St. L 59-71 39%     15 - 12 12 - 5 -12.4 -6.5 -7.6
  Feb 28, 2024 206   @ Cleveland St. W 69-61 37%     16 - 12 13 - 5 +8.2 +2.0 +7.0
  Mar 02, 2024 243   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.1 41.8 43.9 1st
2nd 56.1 56.1 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 58.2 41.8 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 41.8    1.5 40.2
13-7 3.6% 2.1    2.1
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 43.9% 43.9 1.5 40.2 2.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 41.8% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.2 39.6
13-7 58.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.2 1.7 0.5 55.8
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.6 3.2 0.7 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 41.8% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 1.1 3.6 0.5
Lose Out 58.2% 4.1% 15.1 0.3 3.0 0.9