Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#302
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#298
Pace69.9#140
Improvement-1.6#259

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#295
First Shot-6.7#339
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks-5.6#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows-3.3#351
Improvement-2.3#302

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#260
First Shot-1.9#240
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#265
Layups/Dunks-1.5#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#288
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement+0.7#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 24.6% 60.3% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 256   North Dakota St. L 76-80 OT 49%     0 - 1 -11.4 -6.1 -5.1
  Nov 11, 2023 201   Georgia St. L 70-77 40%     0 - 2 -12.1 -3.2 -9.1
  Nov 14, 2023 38   @ Northwestern L 59-63 3%     0 - 3 +10.0 +1.9 +7.5
  Nov 19, 2023 55   @ Ohio St. L 56-73 4%     0 - 4 -4.7 -8.6 +2.8
  Nov 24, 2023 289   SE Louisiana W 68-67 47%     1 - 4 -5.9 -5.6 -0.3
  Nov 25, 2023 230   Mercer W 72-66 34%     2 - 4 +2.7 +4.9 -1.6
  Dec 01, 2023 166   St. Thomas L 51-65 33%     2 - 5 -16.9 -20.0 +1.9
  Dec 05, 2023 115   @ Notre Dame L 65-86 10%     2 - 6 -14.7 +2.0 -17.5
  Dec 09, 2023 133   Youngstown St. L 68-72 25%     2 - 7 -4.4 -4.5 -0.1
  Dec 16, 2023 196   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-89 22%     2 - 8 -20.5 -6.0 -13.4
  Dec 21, 2023 206   @ Cleveland St. L 77-90 23%     2 - 9 -12.8 -3.4 -8.5
  Jan 02, 2024 235   @ Miami (OH) W 83-74 26%     3 - 9 1 - 0 +8.1 +2.7 +4.6
  Jan 06, 2024 341   @ Buffalo W 82-77 59%     4 - 9 2 - 0 -5.0 +6.3 -11.2
  Jan 09, 2024 313   Northern Illinois W 95-90 OT 64%     5 - 9 3 - 0 -6.2 +1.7 -8.6
  Jan 13, 2024 152   Ohio W 81-79 29%     6 - 9 4 - 0 +0.0 +5.8 -5.7
  Jan 16, 2024 104   @ Akron L 66-77 9%     6 - 10 4 - 1 -3.7 +2.9 -7.5
  Jan 20, 2024 246   @ Bowling Green L 79-84 28%     6 - 11 4 - 2 -6.4 -0.7 -5.3
  Jan 23, 2024 326   Eastern Michigan W 73-56 70%     7 - 11 5 - 2 +4.0 -5.2 +9.6
  Jan 27, 2024 274   Central Michigan L 55-62 53%     7 - 12 5 - 3 -15.3 -15.6 +0.0
  Jan 30, 2024 148   @ Toledo L 63-88 14%     7 - 13 5 - 4 -21.2 -10.8 -11.0
  Feb 03, 2024 258   Ball St. L 67-77 50%     7 - 14 5 - 5 -17.6 -8.7 -9.1
  Feb 06, 2024 170   @ Kent St. L 61-63 18%     7 - 15 5 - 6 +0.2 -2.5 +2.4
  Feb 10, 2024 215   @ Southern Miss L 54-86 24%     7 - 16 -32.2 -14.5 -19.5
  Feb 17, 2024 274   @ Central Michigan L 42-69 32%     7 - 17 5 - 7 -29.9 -27.5 -2.8
  Feb 20, 2024 235   Miami (OH) W 77-58 45%     8 - 17 6 - 7 +12.6 +0.6 +11.9
  Feb 24, 2024 341   Buffalo W 91-72 77%     9 - 17 7 - 7 +3.6 +3.9 -1.7
  Feb 27, 2024 326   @ Eastern Michigan L 67-70 50%     9 - 18 7 - 8 -10.5 -3.6 -7.2
  Mar 02, 2024 258   @ Ball St. L 69-74 30%    
  Mar 05, 2024 246   Bowling Green L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 08, 2024 104   Akron L 64-73 19%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 8.1 2.6 10.8 5th
6th 3.4 10.5 0.4 14.3 6th
7th 22.0 2.5 24.5 7th
8th 12.7 19.5 0.2 32.4 8th
9th 17.4 0.3 17.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 30.3 45.2 21.4 3.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 3.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
9-9 21.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 21.1
8-10 45.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 44.9
7-11 30.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 30.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 1.2% 16.0 1.2
Lose Out 30.3% 0.4% 16.0 0.4