Dayton
Atlantic 10
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#70
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#41
Pace59.1#354
Improvement-0.7#247

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#57
First Shot+6.0#42
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#240
Layup/Dunks+0.0#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#64
Freethrows+1.9#71
Improvement+1.0#77

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#94
First Shot+2.5#100
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#161
Layups/Dunks+6.5#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement-1.7#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 3.9% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 35.4% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.6% 18.1% 7.8%
Average Seed 10.3 9.9 10.9
.500 or above 94.7% 97.9% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 92.3% 86.7%
Conference Champion 28.5% 33.0% 24.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four4.8% 6.0% 3.6%
First Round26.4% 32.4% 20.9%
Second Round10.0% 13.2% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 4.2% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 38 - 313 - 9
Quad 48 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville W 63-47 91%     1 - 0 +8.9 -5.5 +16.5
  Nov 10, 2023 62   @ Northwestern L 66-71 36%     1 - 1 +6.5 +12.5 -7.1
  Nov 16, 2023 71   LSU W 70-67 50%     2 - 1 +10.7 +7.2 +3.8
  Nov 17, 2023 57   St. John's W 88-81 45%     3 - 1 +16.1 +14.8 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2023 3   Houston L 55-69 14%     3 - 2 +5.2 +6.1 -4.1
  Nov 24, 2023 217   Youngstown St. W 77-69 89%     4 - 2 +2.4 +4.0 -1.1
  Nov 29, 2023 91   @ SMU L 67-68 48%    
  Dec 02, 2023 327   Grambling St. W 75-54 97%    
  Dec 06, 2023 129   UNLV W 71-63 78%    
  Dec 09, 2023 212   Troy W 74-61 89%    
  Dec 16, 2023 36   @ Cincinnati L 64-71 25%    
  Dec 20, 2023 134   Oakland W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 30, 2023 192   Longwood W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 03, 2024 141   @ Davidson W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 07, 2024 140   Massachusetts W 75-66 80%    
  Jan 12, 2024 84   @ Duquesne L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 16, 2024 148   Saint Louis W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 20, 2024 176   Rhode Island W 73-62 85%    
  Jan 23, 2024 204   @ La Salle W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 27, 2024 85   @ Richmond L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 30, 2024 147   George Washington W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 02, 2024 109   St. Bonaventure W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 06, 2024 126   @ Saint Joseph's W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 09, 2024 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-66 45%    
  Feb 13, 2024 84   Duquesne W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 17, 2024 172   Fordham W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 21, 2024 111   @ George Mason W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 27, 2024 141   Davidson W 69-60 80%    
  Mar 01, 2024 130   @ Loyola Chicago W 67-65 57%    
  Mar 05, 2024 148   @ Saint Louis W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 08, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth W 67-63 65%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.7 7.5 8.2 5.3 2.4 0.6 28.5 1st
2nd 0.6 4.0 6.7 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.6 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.9 7.2 10.4 12.9 14.2 13.9 12.7 9.4 5.5 2.4 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 2.4    2.4 0.0
16-2 97.7% 5.3    4.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 86.4% 8.2    6.1 2.0 0.1
14-4 58.5% 7.5    3.8 2.8 0.8 0.1
13-5 26.5% 3.7    0.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.5% 28.5 18.7 7.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 97.3% 60.6% 36.7% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.2%
17-1 2.4% 90.4% 44.6% 45.8% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 82.8%
16-2 5.5% 78.8% 36.2% 42.6% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.2 66.8%
15-3 9.4% 59.8% 30.8% 29.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.8 41.9%
14-4 12.7% 41.2% 24.2% 17.0% 10.9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 1.2 0.0 7.5 22.5%
13-5 13.9% 27.1% 19.7% 7.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.1 10.1 9.2%
12-6 14.2% 20.7% 17.1% 3.6% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 4.3%
11-7 12.9% 14.7% 13.7% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 11.0 1.2%
10-8 10.4% 10.1% 10.0% 0.1% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.1%
9-9 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.7
8-10 4.9% 6.9% 6.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.5
7-11 2.9% 6.2% 6.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
6-12 1.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.6
5-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.2% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 28.8% 18.5% 10.2% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.2 3.9 9.2 6.6 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 71.2 12.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.0 3.5 41.2 27.1 15.3 5.9 7.1