Montana St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.3 160
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 182
Pace 65.2 270
Improvement -1.2 245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #176 C C- C+ D D
Defense C #158 C+ C C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 351 53% 293 -6.3 351
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 108 45% 37 +2.9 51
Three Pointers 46% 76 36% 107 +3.7 63
1st FG Attempt 1.02 166 +0.3 165
Second Chance 29.1% 225 1.03 164 0.30 203
Turnovers 16.1% 131
Freethrows 0.26 326 75% 108 0.19 297
Total Offense -0.6 176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 17 55% 90 -2.8 276
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 42% 300 -0.6 235
Three Pointers 34% 349 31% 78 +5.0 13
1st FG Attempt 0.99 127 +1.5 127
Second Chance 30.3% 170 1.05 218 0.32 197
Turnovers 16.3% 216
Freethrows 0.27 65 76% 340 0.20 113
Total Defense +0.3 158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 308 +0.6 279
Shot Type Accuracy +1.3 124 -2.0 99
Possession Length 18.7 319 16.9 125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 254 0.17 155
Improvement -0.2 #197 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 20.0% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 70.0% 86.8% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 100.0% 98.9%
Conference Champion 10.8% 18.9% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round17.4% 20.0% 15.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 40.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 37 - 57 - 10
Quad 49 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 70 @Colorado L 78 - 84 15% -1  39% 0 - 1 B- +5 B +7 A F+ C C- -2 C+ C C-
 Sun, Nov 9 259 Denver L 73 - 75 78% +2  67% 0 - 2 D -10 D -6 D- B+ C+ D+ -5 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 78 @Stanford L 68 - 77 16% -4  17% 0 - 3 C +1 D- -7 B- D+ D A- +9 A C- C+
 Sat, Nov 15 58 @Boise St. L 58 - 62 12% -2  30% 0 - 4 B +8 D- -6 C- F B A+ +14 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 251 @Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 57% +3  88% 1 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +3 C- C+ A C+ +1 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 35 @Utah St. L 81 - 84 OT 6% -3  8% 1 - 5 A- +14 B- +5 B- C- C+ A- +9 A- A D
 Wed, Dec 3 122 St. Thomas W 82 - 74 51% +1  57% 2 - 5 B- +7 B+ +8 C+ C A+ C -0 D- A A+
 Sat, Dec 6 338 @Oral Roberts L 68 - 72 78% +6  81% 2 - 6 D- -12 D -5 C+ F+ F D- -8 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 178 @Oregon St. L 57 - 67 42% -4  4% 2 - 7 D -8 F -12 F B D B- +3 A+ F C
 Tue, Dec 16 267 @Cal Poly W 83 - 80 60% +3  67% 3 - 7 C +0 C+ +3 F A- A C- -3 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 176 Northern Colorado W 89 - 75 64% +6  90% 4 - 7 1 - 0 B +10 B+ +8 B A+ B+ C+ +2 A- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 312 Northern Arizona W 77 - 68 86% +7  78% 5 - 7 2 - 0 C- -3 C +2 B- C A- D+ -4 C- C- F+
 Thu, Jan 8 227 @Eastern Washington W 68 - 64 51% -0  41% 6 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -4 C- D+ F B+ +8 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 189 @Idaho L 89 - 92 45% +9  90% 6 - 8 3 - 1 C- -2 A+ +16 A+ C+ D F -19 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 168 Montana W 76 - 67 63% +0  51% 7 - 8 4 - 1 B- +5 C- -1 C- D+ B- B+ +6 B- A+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 176 @Northern Colorado W 73 - 68 41% +4  71% 8 - 8 5 - 1 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ F B- B +5 A F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 252 Idaho St. W 74 - 62 77% +5  85% 9 - 8 6 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 C- B A+ B +5 A- F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 231 Weber St. W 91 - 88 74% +2  63% 10 - 8 7 - 1 C- -4 A- +9 A+ C+ C- F -14 F B F
 Thu, Jan 29 257 @Sacramento St. L 80 - 83 58% -3  22% 10 - 9 7 - 2 D+ -5 C -0 C D+ D D+ -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Portland St. L 54 - 63 33% -3  23% 10 - 10 7 - 3 D+ -5 D- -8 F B- D C+ +2 F A B+
 Thu, Feb 5 189 Idaho W 73 - 66 67% +9  89% 11 - 10 8 - 3 C+ +2 D- -7 F C+ B+ A- +9 B- A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 227 Eastern Washington L 71 - 72 73% -2  25% 11 - 11 8 - 4 D+ -8 D -4 C- F A+ D+ -4 B- F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Montana L 71 - 74 41%
 Thu, Feb 19 231 @Weber St. W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 @Idaho St. W 72 - 70 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 141 Portland St. W 69 - 67 56%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 Sacramento St. W 81 - 73 77%
 Mon, Mar 2 312 @Northern Arizona W 74 - 68 70%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 6 +0 C -1 C C- C+ C +0 C+ C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ B+ B- C+ 30% 24% 46% D C C- C C- C+ D- B- D C B- D B- B- 46% 20% 34% D+ C+ C C- C C- B- D- C+
1.08 53% 45% 36% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.0 .30 16% .26 75% .19 1.08 55% 42% 31% -2 +1 0.99 30% 1.0 .32 16% .27 76% .19
Nov
3		 Colorado B B A+ B- A+ 40% 27% 33% C A D F F+ C C B+ C+ C- D+ F A+ B- 58% 20% 22% F+ C+ D+ B C C- F A- F
1.13 62% 64% 35% +9 -1 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 16% .29 76% .22 1.22 65% 56% 20% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.9 .32 13% .65 69% .45
Nov
9		 Denver D B B+ F D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- D- A+ B+ C+ F C+ F D+ F+ C+ F F 59% 27% 14% F F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.14 67% 44% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.7 .48 12% .12 71% .09 1.17 66% 38% 57% +10 +1 1.22 38% 1.3 .50 22% .20 60% .12
Nov
12		 Stanford D- D A+ C- B- 30% 28% 42% D B- F A+ D+ D F F F A- C A+ A+ A 48% 17% 35% B- A A+ F C- C+ C D+ C-
0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12 1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26
Nov
15		 Boise St. D- D+ D+ B+ C+ 25% 36% 40% F C- B- F F B F F F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 27% 16% 58% A- A+ A+ B- A+ D D+ F F
0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11 0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36
Nov
21		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D+ C 32% 32% 36% F C- D- A+ C+ A D C- D- C+ D C+ D+ C- 28% 46% 26% A+ C+ D+ B+ C+ C- D+ D+ D+
1.13 71% 35% 32% +2 -2 1.02 22% 1.7 .38 13% .32 74% .23 1.04 67% 36% 36% +2 -4 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
29		 Utah St. B- D- A C+ B 22% 22% 55% D+ B- B- D- C- C+ C- A+ B A- A+ F D+ A 54% 7% 39% D- A- A+ D- A D F+ B- D
1.05 46% 46% 34% 0 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .29 21% .29 89% .26 1.08 43% 75% 36% -4 +3 1.00 24% 1.3 .32 13% .39 69% .27
Dec
3		 St. Thomas B+ F C A B- 27% 17% 56% D C+ D+ B+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ C F C+ B- D- 38% 6% 56% C- D- C+ A+ A A+ C B- C+
1.21 46% 38% 41% +3 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36 1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20
Dec
6		 Oral Roberts D A- A- D B- 37% 12% 51% C- C+ A- F F+ F F+ C- F+ D- B- D+ A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C- B- F A- D- C+ F F F
1.06 67% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 40% 0.6 .26 22% .26 69% .18 1.12 50% 40% 23% -8 +1 0.87 41% 0.8 .32 19% .50 92% .46
Dec
13		 Oregon St. F F A+ F+ F 37% 18% 45% D+ F D+ A+ B D D F F B- B- D+ A+ A+ 40% 18% 43% D+ A+ A F F C F D- F
0.89 28% 56% 27% -12 0 0.78 28% 1.4 .38 17% .28 60% .17 1.04 50% 43% 18% -13 +1 0.78 18% 2.8 .50 17% .53 82% .43
Dec
16		 Cal Poly C+ A+ F F F 30% 14% 55% C- F C A+ A- A A+ D- A- C- A+ C A+ A+ 45% 6% 49% D A+ F F F F F A- F
1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27 1.11 41% 33% 25% -14 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36
Jan
1		 Northern Colorado B+ C+ A+ D B+ 39% 18% 43% C B D A+ A+ B+ D- D D- C+ B- A+ C+ A 40% 19% 40% C A- D- F F C+ C+ F D
1.24 59% 70% 29% +3 0 1.09 22% 2.4 .53 10% .28 72% .20 1.04 57% 20% 33% -4 0 0.94 32% 1.5 .47 18% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Northern Arizona C F A+ A B 29% 13% 58% D+ B- C C+ C A- D+ A+ B- D+ C D F D- 37% 42% 21% A+ C- D+ C C- F+ A- B B+
1.22 46% 67% 42% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 13% .25 93% .24 1.08 58% 41% 45% +5 -3 1.06 26% 1.0 .26 13% .20 64% .13
Jan
8		 Eastern Washington D+ C B- B C+ 31% 28% 41% F C- A- F D+ F A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ 48% 20% 32% D- A+ D- A+ B+ D- C- F F
1.05 58% 45% 38% +4 -2 1.08 41% 0.8 .33 26% .44 81% .36 0.99 38% 50% 25% -12 +1 0.80 36% 0.7 .26 15% .31 94% .29
Jan
10		 Idaho A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% C+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D C+ A B+ F F+ C- F F 44% 14% 42% D- F D- A+ B- F A D- B+
1.30 65% 57% 54% +16 0 1.34 32% 0.9 .28 18% .37 81% .30 1.35 65% 38% 44% +10 +1 1.24 32% 0.7 .22 7% .22 79% .17
Jan
17		 Montana C- F+ C- A+ C+ 30% 38% 32% F C- D+ C- D+ B- A- A A B+ A+ F D+ A- 58% 4% 38% F B- A+ B- A+ C+ B F C
1.07 50% 35% 41% 0 -3 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 14% .36 77% .28 0.94 45% 100% 37% -3 +4 1.02 10% 1.0 .10 21% .25 93% .23
Jan
19		 Northern Colorado C+ F+ C A+ B 40% 10% 50% B B+ F F F B- B- C B- B A B C+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F+ A F B- F C+ A+ A+ A+
1.11 48% 40% 42% +2 +2 1.10 15% 0.8 .12 11% .36 76% .27 1.04 46% 33% 33% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .44 18% .06 33% .02
Jan
22		 Idaho St. C F C+ A C- 35% 22% 43% D+ C- B- B- B A+ F F F B C+ B+ A A 44% 7% 49% F A- C+ F F+ D- D+ A+ B-
1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12 0.99 55% 33% 27% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21
Jan
24		 Weber St. A- B A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C- A+ A- D- C+ C- B- A+ A+ F B+ F F F 61% 4% 35% F F A- C B F B F C
1.29 67% 56% 46% +15 0 1.31 38% 1.0 .38 17% .36 90% .32 1.25 48% 50% 58% +7 +4 1.24 25% 1.0 .25 11% .30 79% .24
Jan
29		 Sacramento St. C F A+ A+ C+ 26% 20% 54% F C C D- D+ D C+ D- C- D+ D+ F F F 41% 30% 30% C- F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ C- A
1.11 29% 55% 41% +2 -1 1.04 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 68% .22 1.16 59% 63% 50% +15 -1 1.30 11% 0.7 .07 15% .23 79% .18
Jan
31		 Portland St. D- F A F D- 24% 37% 39% F F B+ C- B- D F A+ F+ C+ D F F F 44% 23% 33% B F D- A+ A B+ B+ B- B+
0.88 45% 47% 17% -10 -3 0.76 36% 0.9 .33 21% .27 85% .23 1.03 63% 50% 43% +9 0 1.21 37% 0.5 .17 23% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Idaho D- C D- F F+ 35% 44% 21% F F F A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- B F A+ B+ 57% 16% 28% F B- A- A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.00 59% 33% 20% -6 -3 0.83 13% 2.3 .30 12% .47 87% .41 0.91 52% 56% 25% -5 +2 0.97 21% 0.6 .12 19% .15 89% .14
Feb
7		 Eastern Washington D F A+ B+ C- 36% 18% 46% D+ C- F F F A+ C+ D- C- D+ B+ C+ F B 54% 22% 24% F+ B- F+ F F D+ A F B+
1.09 44% 56% 39% +2 0 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 8% .33 70% .23 1.11 48% 36% 42% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.4 .52 17% .20 82% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 5.5 3.2 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 13.0 23.1 11.8 1.6 51.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 9.3 13.8 4.6 0.2 28.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 4.1 0.6 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 0.3 2.1 5th
6th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.7 4.6 15.1 27.5 29.8 17.4 4.9 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.2% 3.2    1.7 1.5
13-5 31.3% 5.5    1.5 3.4 0.6
12-6 6.8% 2.0    0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 3.4 6.0 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.9% 28.0% 28.0% 13.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.5
13-5 17.4% 22.9% 22.9% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 13.4
12-6 29.8% 18.3% 18.3% 14.3 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.2 0.0 24.3
11-7 27.5% 16.3% 16.3% 14.8 0.0 0.9 3.3 0.2 23.0
10-8 15.1% 11.6% 11.6% 15.4 0.0 1.1 0.7 13.4
9-9 4.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.2
8-10 0.7% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 14.4 82.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 13.2 10.7 55.9 31.6 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 0.3%