South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#185
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Pace63.7#319
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#203
First Shot-1.2#205
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks+5.4#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#343
Freethrows-0.2#185
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot+1.8#111
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#327
Layups/Dunks+7.2#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-13.0#365
Freethrows+4.6#4
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 11.8% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 94.4% 97.8% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 90.7% 73.3%
Conference Champion 11.7% 17.0% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.2% 11.8% 6.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 168 @Toledo W 76-74 35%     1 - 0 +4.2 +8.0 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 6 331 Alcorn St. W 76-70 86%     2 - 0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.7
  Thu, Nov 13 326 Central Michigan W 66-64 78%     3 - 0 -7.8 -3.5 -4.0
  Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72-62 93%     4 - 0 -8.6 -5.1 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 271 @Jacksonville St. W 71-65 55%     5 - 0 +3.1 +3.7 -0.3
  Fri, Nov 21 115 @UAB L 72-80 22%     5 - 1 -1.6 +8.0 -10.4
  Sun, Nov 30 295 @Texas San Antonio W 82-58 59%     6 - 1 +19.8 +7.9 +11.5
  Tue, Dec 2 133 New Mexico St. W 77-75 37%     7 - 1 +3.6 +9.5 -5.8
  Fri, Dec 5 123 @East Tennessee St. L 65-91 24%     7 - 2 -20.2 -3.8 -17.0
  Sun, Dec 14 146 North Texas L 57-58 51%     7 - 3 -3.0 -7.3 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 17 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 96-92 2OT 80%     8 - 3 1 - 0 -6.8 -1.4 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 20 257 @Texas St. W 67-66 52%    
  Wed, Dec 31 321 @Louisiana W 66-61 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 143 @Troy L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Jan 10 219 Georgia Southern W 77-72 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 138 Arkansas St. L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 321 Louisiana W 69-58 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 195 @James Madison L 69-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 @Marshall L 69-74 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 259 Coastal Carolina W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 344 Georgia St. W 76-63 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 207 @Appalachian St. L 63-65 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 203 @Southern Miss L 69-71 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 138 @Arkansas St. L 72-78 30%    
  Thu, Feb 19 257 Texas St. W 70-63 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 143 Troy W 70-69 51%    
  Wed, Feb 25 355 Louisiana Monroe W 79-64 91%    
  Fri, Feb 27 203 Southern Miss W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 3.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.1 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.4 4.2 5.3 1.0 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.7 1.9 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.0 0.2 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.6 0.5 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.3 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.5 12.2 14.7 16.1 14.1 11.6 7.7 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.1% 1.6    1.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 84.3% 3.3    2.4 0.9 0.1
14-4 52.1% 4.0    1.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.3% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.2 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 41.3% 41.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.6% 35.9% 35.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-3 4.0% 31.9% 31.9% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7
14-4 7.7% 25.2% 25.2% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 5.7
13-5 11.6% 19.8% 19.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 9.3
12-6 14.1% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 12.6
11-7 16.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 15.2
10-8 14.7% 2.5% 2.5% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.3
9-9 12.2% 1.5% 1.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.0
8-10 8.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-11 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.0
6-12 2.6% 2.6
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.8 0.2 90.8 0.0%