New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 #154
Expected Predictive Rating -3.3 #219
Pace 65.0 #283
Improvement -4.8 #344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #118 C C B C- D-
Defense #233 C+ C- D+ F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.18 #144 -3.4 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #41 0.77 #152 +3.3 #38
Three Pointers 39% #214 1.05 #138 -0.2 #188
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 0.29 #239 72% #180 0.21 #216
Second Chance 33.3% #104 0.98 #263 0.33 #156
Turnovers 14.4% #64
Total Offense +2.0 #118

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.19 #218 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.68 #57 +0.0 #184
Three Pointers 43% #122 1.02 #185 -1.0 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #143 +1.1 #142
Freethrows 0.38 #346 79% #363 0.30 #362
Second Chance 29.3% #125 1.17 #324 0.34 #246
Turnovers 15.1% #267
Total Defense -1.8 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 -1.3% #73
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #137 -0.9% #170
Possession Length 18.1 #256 17.7 #240
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #128 0.20 #268
Improvement +0.1 #177 -4.8 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 29.5% 45.9% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.1% 39.9% 14.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 2.3% 8.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round5.0% 6.2% 4.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 87 - 11
Quad 46 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 43 New Mexico W 76 - 68 21% +2  1 - 0 +17 +14 C A A+ +3 A D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 239 Samford W 81 - 72 77% +10  2 - 0 +2 +12 B+ A- B+ -10 B F F
 Tue, Nov 25 120 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 40% +5  3 - 0 +15 -10 F B F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 270 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 73% +9  4 - 0 +13 -0 C- D A- +12 B+ A- C
 Tue, Dec 2 192 South Alabama L 75 - 77 59% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C D+ D- -11 B- D D
 Sat, Dec 6 252 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 59% -5  4 - 2 -10 +4 D+ D+ C+ -15 F F+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 70 Tulsa L 70 - 83 23% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F D C -2 D+ F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 115 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 50% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +9 A D+ A+ -0 A B C-
 Fri, Jan 2 190 @Florida International L 74 - 89 47% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -14 +1 A- F C- -15 D F B-
 Sun, Jan 4 183 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 46% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +8 C+ C C -14 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 166 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 64% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +12 +12 C- A+ C+ +2 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 142 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 58% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -13 D F D+ +7 A+ B+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 94 @Liberty L 71 - 73 21% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B- B- A+ -8 D+ B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 278 @Delaware W 97 - 68 65% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +25 +36 A+ A+ A+ -7 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 183 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 69% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -14 +6 F B- A+ -21 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 190 Florida International L 78 - 81 69% -4  7 - 9 3 - 6 -8 -3 F D- C -5 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 278 Delaware L 64 - 73 83% -5  7 - 10 3 - 7 -19 -2 C C D+ -18 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 153 @Kennesaw St. L 78 - 81 39%
 Wed, Feb 4 209 @Louisiana Tech W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 266 @UTEP W 71 - 68 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 94 Liberty L 72 - 74 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 184 @Jacksonville St. L 69 - 70 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 266 UTEP W 74 - 65 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 166 @Western Kentucky L 74 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 @Middle Tennessee L 69 - 73 36%
 Thu, Mar 5 184 Jacksonville St. W 72 - 67 68%
 Sat, Mar 7 153 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 78 61%
Totals 12 - 15 8 - 12 +0 +2 C C B -2 C+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.4 2.5 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 5.9 0.6 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 8.7 2.6 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 8.8 5.8 0.3 16.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 8.2 8.9 1.3 0.0 20.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.6 1.6 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.2 10.8 17.6 21.9 20.0 14.4 7.1 2.2 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.4% 10.3% 10.3% 12.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 2.2% 19.5% 19.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8
11-9 7.1% 10.9% 10.9% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.3
10-10 14.4% 8.0% 8.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 13.3
9-11 20.0% 5.0% 5.0% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 19.0
8-12 21.9% 3.8% 3.8% 15.3 0.6 0.3 21.1
7-13 17.6% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 16.8
6-14 10.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.6
5-15 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-16 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.4 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%