New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#133
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#151
Pace63.9#319
Improvement-3.4#350

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#148
First Shot-0.9#198
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#86
Layup/Dunks-3.7#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#311
Freethrows+2.4#58
Improvement-2.1#322

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#133
First Shot+0.9#135
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#175
Layups/Dunks+4.0#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#204
Freethrows-3.5#345
Improvement-1.4#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 16.2% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 83.2% 89.9% 73.6%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 88.7% 71.4%
Conference Champion 19.4% 26.5% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.5% 2.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round13.8% 16.2% 10.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 58.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 410 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 71 New Mexico W 76-68 38%     1 - 0 +12.9 +11.0 +2.4
  Fri, Nov 21 237 Samford W 81-72 80%     2 - 0 +1.9 +13.3 -10.3
  Tue, Nov 25 122 UC Irvine W 57-45 45%     3 - 0 +14.9 -8.7 +23.6
  Wed, Nov 26 334 Georgia St. W 77-58 87%     4 - 0 +8.4 -3.3 +10.5
  Tue, Dec 2 179 South Alabama L 75-77 62%     4 - 1 -3.3 +6.3 -9.7
  Sat, Dec 6 219 @Abilene Christian L 69-77 59%     4 - 2 -8.5 +5.6 -14.9
  Sat, Dec 13 83 Tulsa L 70-83 30%     4 - 3 -5.9 -2.3 -3.6
  Sun, Dec 21 125 Sam Houston St. W 75-73 59%    
  Fri, Jan 2 187 @Florida International W 73-72 51%    
  Sun, Jan 4 251 @Missouri St. W 68-64 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 147 Western Kentucky W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 157 Middle Tennessee W 73-68 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 109 @Liberty L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 282 @Delaware W 70-65 69%    
  Thu, Jan 22 251 Missouri St. W 71-61 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 187 Florida International W 76-70 72%    
  Wed, Jan 28 282 Delaware W 73-62 85%    
  Sat, Jan 31 162 @Kennesaw St. L 77-78 45%    
  Wed, Feb 4 178 @Louisiana Tech L 64-65 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 217 @UTEP W 66-64 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 109 Liberty W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 254 @Jacksonville St. W 67-63 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 217 UTEP W 69-61 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 147 @Western Kentucky L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 157 @Middle Tennessee L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Mar 5 254 Jacksonville St. W 70-60 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 162 Kennesaw St. W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 4.4 5.3 3.8 2.1 0.7 0.2 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.9 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.7 3.1 0.7 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 4.7 7.3 9.6 11.3 12.4 12.9 11.7 9.3 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 98.6% 2.1    1.9 0.1
17-3 91.7% 3.8    3.2 0.6 0.0
16-4 74.0% 5.3    3.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 47.8% 4.4    2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0
14-6 19.7% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 12.3 5.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 57.8% 53.3% 4.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.5%
19-1 0.7% 41.7% 41.7% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.1% 42.7% 42.7% 12.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2
17-3 4.2% 32.7% 32.7% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.8
16-4 7.1% 29.0% 29.0% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.0
15-5 9.3% 21.6% 21.6% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.3
14-6 11.7% 18.6% 18.6% 13.2 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 9.6
13-7 12.9% 15.3% 15.3% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 10.9
12-8 12.4% 10.8% 10.8% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.1
11-9 11.3% 7.0% 7.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.5
10-10 9.6% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.2
9-11 7.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.1
8-12 4.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.6
7-13 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
6-14 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.6 3.5 1.0 0.2 86.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.3 8.3 16.7 4.2 25.0 8.3 33.3 4.2