Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #281
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Pace 67.7 #217
Improvement -1.2 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #315 D+ D D C C-
Defense #221 C C- C B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.11 #232 -2.3 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #136 0.76 #172 +0.8 #135
Three Pointers 42% #170 0.93 #289 -1.5 #235
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #270 -3.1 #269
Freethrows 0.28 #245 78% #20 0.22 #173
Second Chance 28.7% #238 0.88 #346 0.25 #313
Turnovers 18.6% #312
Total Offense -5.6 #315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.16 #176 -2.2 #252
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #360 0.75 #155 +3.0 #8
Three Pointers 45% #71 0.96 #106 -0.8 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 +0.0 #181
Freethrows 0.25 #43 74% #250 0.18 #56
Second Chance 32.1% #257 1.09 #252 0.35 #264
Turnovers 16.2% #194
Total Defense -1.4 #221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #246 2.5% #357
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #266 -2.5% #136
Possession Length 18.1 #257 17.2 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.15 #132
Improvement +0.4 #159 -1.6 #277

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 90.1% 74.0% 92.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 101 - 18
Quad 44 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 34 @UCLA L 63 - 74 2% -10  0 - 1 +6 +5 D+ A+ C -1 B D- B-
 Sat, Nov 15 197 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 43% -5  0 - 2 -12 -9 D- F C- -3 C+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 220 New Orleans W 90 - 79 48% +6  1 - 2 +4 +6 B F A+ -3 C C A-
 Fri, Nov 21 107 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 22% +3  1 - 3 -2 -8 D+ D F +6 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 149 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 24% -7  1 - 4 -22 -16 F C F -7 D+ F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 216 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 26% -5  1 - 5 -14 -4 F F+ C+ -11 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 252 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 54% -8  1 - 6 -16 -4 D F B- -13 D- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 198 Vermont L 56 - 65 44% -1  1 - 7 -15 -14 F F F -2 D+ A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 43% +4  2 - 7 +3 -2 B+ F F +5 A- A- B
 Thu, Dec 18 251 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 31% +2  2 - 8 -5 +4 A A- F -9 F+ C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 230 Rice W 84 - 62 50% +8  3 - 8 +15 +6 A C F +9 A+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 28 11 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -10 F+ B- C+ -13 D+ B- C-
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -17 F C- F -5 C- B C
 Fri, Jan 2 50 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 4% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -5 -8 D- C F +4 D+ A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 123 @Pacific L 69 - 74 13% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 +0 +2 C D C- -2 C- F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 208 @San Diego L 63 - 83 25% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -8 D F D- -13 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 98 San Francisco L 60 - 80 19% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -8 F D+ A -10 D C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 218 Portland W 67 - 63 47% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -2 -5 C- B- D +3 A- A- D+
 Wed, Jan 21 11 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  4 - 15 1 - 7 -1 -2 C C D+ +0 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 131 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 14% -12  4 - 16 1 - 8 -11 +5 A F F -16 F+ F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 208 San Diego L 88 - 92 OT 46% +3  4 - 17 1 - 9 -10 +0 C- F+ A+ -10 A- F D
 Wed, Feb 4 124 @Seattle L 60 - 72 13%
 Sat, Feb 7 123 Pacific L 66 - 72 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 80 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 162 Loyola Marymount L 66 - 70 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 218 @Portland L 68 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 @Oregon St. L 66 - 74 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 124 Seattle L 63 - 69 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 131 Washington St. L 71 - 77 30%
Totals 6 - 23 3 - 15 -7 -6 D+ D D -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.5 0.5 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 7.7 2.8 0.0 13.8 11th
12th 14.1 28.3 25.9 9.2 0.3 77.7 12th
Total 14.1 28.4 29.1 18.2 7.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12 2.2% 2.2
5-13 7.5% 7.5
4-14 18.2% 18.2
3-15 29.1% 29.1
2-16 28.4% 28.4
1-17 14.1% 14.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 14.1%