Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#286
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#290
Pace73.1#77
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#318
First Shot-7.4#352
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#68
Layup/Dunks-3.9#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows-2.6#314
Improvement-1.4#292

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#220
First Shot+2.8#83
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#357
Layups/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#262
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement+1.9#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 0.9% 5.4% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.9% 17.4% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.3% 26.0% 37.5%
First Four0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 1.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 45 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 232 SIU Edwardsville L 60-77 51%     0 - 1 -24.0 -16.2 -7.2
  Wed, Nov 12 240 @Texas St. L 69-80 30%     0 - 2 -12.4 -3.2 -9.2
  Sat, Nov 15 312 @Denver W 84-79 47%     1 - 2 -1.0 +8.6 -9.2
  Mon, Nov 24 219 Abilene Christian L 50-61 37%     1 - 3 -14.5 -15.8 -0.2
  Tue, Nov 25 230 Georgia Southern W 77-64 39%     2 - 3 +9.0 -2.7 +11.1
  Sun, Nov 30 179 South Alabama L 58-82 40%     2 - 4 -28.3 -17.2 -10.8
  Sun, Dec 7 15 @Alabama L 55-97 1%     2 - 5 -21.4 -16.5 -0.8
  Sat, Dec 13 62 @Colorado L 64-88 5%     2 - 6 -12.2 -7.8 -3.6
  Wed, Dec 17 37 @USC L 66-88 2%    
  Mon, Dec 22 118 Seattle L 68-75 26%    
  Wed, Dec 31 117 @Florida Atlantic L 70-83 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 158 @Temple L 71-81 17%    
  Wed, Jan 7 194 Charlotte L 69-71 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 206 Tulane L 74-75 47%    
  Wed, Jan 14 208 Rice L 71-72 47%    
  Sun, Jan 18 75 @Memphis L 65-83 6%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 @North Texas L 61-72 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 158 Temple L 74-78 35%    
  Wed, Jan 28 119 UAB L 72-79 26%    
  Wed, Feb 4 86 @South Florida L 70-86 7%    
  Sat, Feb 7 145 North Texas L 64-69 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 280 @East Carolina L 71-74 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 194 @Charlotte L 66-74 25%    
  Wed, Feb 18 117 Florida Atlantic L 73-80 26%    
  Sun, Feb 22 83 @Tulsa L 67-84 6%    
  Wed, Feb 25 280 East Carolina W 74-71 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 100 Wichita St. L 66-75 21%    
  Sun, Mar 8 208 @Rice L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.8 4.2 1.3 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.9 2.4 0.1 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.2 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.4 4.7 0.7 0.0 20.9 12th
13th 1.2 4.7 8.0 7.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 25.5 13th
Total 1.2 4.8 9.5 13.8 16.4 16.0 13.6 9.9 6.9 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 41.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.1
9-9 4.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.0
8-10 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
7-11 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.9
6-12 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-13 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-15 13.8% 13.8
2-16 9.5% 9.5
1-17 4.8% 4.8
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%