Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.6 #341
Expected Predictive Rating -13.1 #345
Pace 72.3 #88
Improvement -0.7 #224

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #334 F+ D C- D C
Defense #313 D+ D C- B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 0.96 #358 -5.3 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.72 #239 -0.5 #201
Three Pointers 44% #125 0.84 #351 -2.4 #267
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #358 -8.1 #358
Freethrows 0.26 #315 72% #195 0.18 #318
Second Chance 28.8% #235 0.88 #352 0.25 #316
Turnovers 17.1% #230
Total Offense -6.8 #334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.17 #196 +0.0 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #339 0.75 #151 +2.3 #30
Three Pointers 47% #34 1.08 #276 -4.8 #340
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #264 -2.5 #264
Freethrows 0.27 #85 71% #98 0.19 #80
Second Chance 36.9% #354 1.05 #197 0.39 #329
Turnovers 15.3% #249
Total Defense -4.9 #313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #213 1.4% #302
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.7% #361 3.4% #246
Possession Length 16.9 #126 17.1 #128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #139 0.23 #339
Improvement +1.7 #93 -2.4 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.8% 86.1% 94.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 1.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 91 - 17
Quad 43 - 94 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 261 SIU Edwardsville L 60 - 77 38% -3  0 - 1 -26 -16 F F B+ -9 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 271 @Texas St. L 69 - 80 21% -10  0 - 2 -14 -4 F C B- -10 A- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 284 @Denver W 84 - 79 24% +4  1 - 2 +1 +10 A- D- D- -9 D A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 252 Abilene Christian L 50 - 61 27% -7  1 - 3 -16 -17 F D+ D -1 A+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 245 Georgia Southern W 77 - 64 25% -1  2 - 3 +8 -4 F D+ A+ +11 A+ D+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 192 South Alabama L 58 - 82 26% -14  2 - 4 -29 -17 F F+ B+ -12 D- D- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 16 @Alabama L 55 - 97 1% -27  2 - 5 -21 -16 D- F+ F -1 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 80 @Colorado L 64 - 88 3% -10  2 - 6 -14 -8 D- D+ F -5 F+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 44 @USC L 70 - 97 2% -10  2 - 7 -12 +1 F+ A F -12 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 124 Seattle L 68 - 71 16% -4  2 - 8 -4 -3 B D- C- -1 A- C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 101 @Florida Atlantic L 70 - 110 4% -27  2 - 9 0 - 1 -32 -7 F D C- -20 F D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Temple L 57 - 76 8% -9  2 - 10 0 - 2 -15 -12 F D F -4 B F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 165 Charlotte L 58 - 74 22% -9  2 - 11 0 - 3 -19 -14 F D B- -7 B+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 175 Tulane L 52 - 85 24% -19  2 - 12 0 - 4 -37 -22 F F F -16 F+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 230 Rice L 73 - 89 32% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 -23 +5 C- C+ B- -30 F F D-
 Sun, Jan 18 100 @Memphis L 69 - 95 4% -12  2 - 14 0 - 6 -18 +2 C D+ F+ -19 F B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 144 @North Texas L 62 - 81 8% -14  2 - 15 0 - 7 -15 -2 D+ F C- -14 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 147 Temple L 64 - 70 19% -0  2 - 16 0 - 8 -8 -4 D C D- -5 C C- C
 Wed, Jan 28 118 UAB L 73 - 83 14% -1  2 - 17 0 - 9 -10 -1 F B- A -9 F+ C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 67 @South Florida L 69 - 92 1%
 Sat, Feb 7 144 North Texas L 62 - 72 19%
 Wed, Feb 11 262 @East Carolina L 69 - 78 20%
 Sun, Feb 15 165 @Charlotte L 66 - 80 9%
 Wed, Feb 18 101 Florida Atlantic L 70 - 84 10%
 Sun, Feb 22 70 @Tulsa L 68 - 91 2%
 Wed, Feb 25 262 East Carolina L 72 - 75 39%
 Sun, Mar 1 99 Wichita St. L 66 - 80 10%
 Sun, Mar 8 230 @Rice L 68 - 79 16%
Totals 3 - 25 1 - 17 -12 -7 F+ D C- -5 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 4.4 5.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 26.3 37.2 19.7 4.0 0.4 0.0 87.5 13th
Total 26.3 37.2 24.1 9.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 2.3% 2.3
3-15 9.7% 9.7
2-16 24.1% 24.1
1-17 37.2% 37.2
0-18 26.3% 26.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.7%