Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.2 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #242
Pace 66.8 #234
Improvement +0.2 #173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #309 D C- D C- D+
Defense #209 D B- C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.10 #256 +2.9 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #30 0.75 #197 +3.4 #36
Three Pointers 24% #365 0.80 #361 -11.2 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #318 -4.9 #317
Freethrows 0.27 #277 74% #116 0.20 #243
Second Chance 31.8% #152 0.91 #332 0.29 #245
Turnovers 18.6% #315
Total Offense -5.1 #309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.22 #267 -4.3 #318
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #303 0.66 #42 +2.4 #26
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.15 #338 -2.2 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #311 -4.2 #311
Freethrows 0.33 #280 72% #141 0.24 #270
Second Chance 29.4% #128 0.96 #69 0.28 #93
Turnovers 17.2% #132
Total Defense -1.0 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #277 1.8% #332
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.4% #318 6.3% #300
Possession Length 17.7 #211 17.2 #161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #106 0.18 #203
Improvement +0.0 #182 +0.3 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 36.4% 51.5% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 41.1% 58.9% 22.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 91 - 11
Quad 413 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 17% -13  0 - 1 -31 -23 F F F -8 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 8 175 @Tulane L 71 - 79 23% +6  0 - 2 -6 +2 D B- B- -9 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 341 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 79% +10  1 - 2 -4 +0 F A- B+ -4 C C- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 306 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 70% +12  2 - 2 -1 -3 D- A+ F +2 C- B+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 252 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 58% +11  3 - 2 +6 -5 D D- F +13 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 64% +5  4 - 2 -1 -8 C F F +8 B+ B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 124 Seattle L 52 - 66 22% -5  4 - 3 -12 -6 C- F D+ -8 F A- D
 Sat, Nov 29 304 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 59% +1  4 - 4 -12 -2 D C- F+ -10 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 230 @Rice L 72 - 77 31% -2  4 - 5 -6 -0 D+ F C -6 B F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 260 Southern W 86 - 83 59% -2  5 - 5 -5 +1 A- F F -7 F+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 156 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 38% -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -8 F C D+ -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 192 South Alabama W 67 - 65 46% -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -2 F B+ D+ -1 C B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 113 @Troy L 80 - 100 12% -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -14 +12 C A+ D -26 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 74% +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -8 +2 D- A D- -10 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 259 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 36% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -12 -9 F C- C- -3 D B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 19% -5  7 - 9 2 - 4 +2 +2 D+ A+ F +1 B- A B
 Wed, Jan 14 314 Louisiana W 59 - 54 72% +5  8 - 9 3 - 4 -7 -8 B+ F F +2 C- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 259 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 59% +3  9 - 9 4 - 4 -1 -3 C- D- F +1 C A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 236 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 32% -3  9 - 10 4 - 5 -3 -0 F D+ A+ -3 C B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 210 @James Madison L 57 - 82 28% -17  9 - 11 4 - 6 -25 -12 F F C+ -16 F D C
 Wed, Jan 28 168 Marshall W 72 - 68 40% +4  10 - 11 5 - 6 +0 -2 C B+ D +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 222 Old Dominion W 72 - 71 52%
 Wed, Feb 4 245 @Georgia Southern L 73 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 7 273 Western Michigan W 74 - 71 61%
 Wed, Feb 11 113 Troy L 67 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 67 88%
 Thu, Feb 19 192 @South Alabama L 64 - 71 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 314 @Louisiana W 65 - 64 50%
 Fri, Feb 27 200 Appalachian St. L 64 - 65 48%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -6 -5 D C- D -1 D B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.2 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.4 1.3 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.9 5.0 0.3 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 5.4 2.8 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.8 9.4 0.7 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 5.3 6.6 0.1 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 12.2 1.5 14.4 9th
10th 0.1 4.8 8.9 0.1 14.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 9.6 2.3 13.3 11th
12th 0.3 4.5 5.0 0.1 10.0 12th
13th 0.5 1.8 0.3 2.6 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.8 7.8 20.6 29.7 23.9 12.7 4.0 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 4.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
10-8 12.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.5
9-9 23.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.8
8-10 29.7% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 29.6
7-11 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 20.6
6-12 7.8% 7.8
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.4%