BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.6 #14
Expected Predictive Rating +20.1 #13
Pace 72.2 #89
Improvement -2.1 #283

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 B A B+ B- C-
Defense #20 A C+ C+ A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.39 #7 +1.8 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #148 0.83 #82 +1.3 #106
Three Pointers 43% #138 1.06 #118 +2.1 #116
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.3 #51
Freethrows 0.32 #127 76% #77 0.24 #106
Second Chance 38.1% #15 1.23 #18 0.47 #8
Turnovers 13.7% #35
Total Offense +10.9 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #359 1.12 #123 +7.2 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.64 #18 -2.2 #330
Three Pointers 42% #165 0.85 #18 +3.1 #65
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #6 +8.1 #6
Freethrows 0.22 #12 70% #84 0.16 #14
Second Chance 26.8% #55 1.14 #304 0.31 #142
Turnovers 17.2% #123
Total Defense +7.8 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #247 -4.3% #4
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.2% #33 -12.0% #18
Possession Length 15.2 #23 18.6 #333
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #21 0.14 #71
Improvement -0.9 #233 -1.2 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.2% 7.0% 2.3%
Top 2 Seed 15.9% 24.3% 10.0%
Top 4 Seed 62.3% 76.8% 52.0%
Top 6 Seed 93.2% 97.8% 90.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 4.1 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 99.4% 95.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round89.2% 93.0% 86.5%
Sweet Sixteen52.2% 57.3% 48.6%
Elite Eight24.2% 27.7% 21.7%
Final Four11.2% 12.8% 10.0%
Championship Game5.0% 5.9% 4.3%
National Champion2.2% 2.7% 1.8%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 41.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b7 - 110 - 8
Quad 26 - 016 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 36 Villanova W 71 - 66 68% +6  1 - 0 +19 +6 C- D+ A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 325 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  2 - 0 +32 +16 A+ F A+ +15 A+ C- A-
 Tue, Nov 11 278 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  3 - 0 +7 +21 C A+ B -11 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 15 10 Connecticut L 84 - 86 44% -9  3 - 1 +18 +17 A+ A+ C +1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 39 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 70% +12  4 - 1 +41 +24 B+ A A+ +15 A+ B B+
 Thu, Nov 27 40 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 71% +3  5 - 1 +23 +7 B C C+ +16 A+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 85 Dayton W 83 - 79 87% -0  6 - 1 +11 +11 A C+ B -0 C- B- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 140 California Baptist W 66 - 44 94% +18  7 - 1 +23 +28 A+ A+ A +6 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 32 Clemson W 67 - 64 67% -5  8 - 1 +17 +13 D+ A+ B+ +4 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 292 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +14  9 - 1 +37 +16 A+ D+ C+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 123 Pacific W 93 - 57 95% +18  10 - 1 +35 +18 B- A+ B+ +17 A+ D A+
 Fri, Dec 19 252 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 98% +5  11 - 1 +10 +8 B+ A+ F +1 A- F B+
 Mon, Dec 22 241 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +9  12 - 1 +21 +24 A+ A A+ -5 C F C
 Sat, Jan 3 87 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 80% +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 77 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 90% +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +33 +21 A+ B- D+ +9 A+ B- A
 Sat, Jan 10 104 @Utah W 89 - 84 85% +4  15 - 1 3 - 0 +13 +13 C A+ C -1 A- F+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 45 TCU W 76 - 70 83% -0  16 - 1 4 - 0 +15 +9 F A+ A+ +5 A- A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 15 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 40% -1  16 - 2 4 - 1 +8 +6 C B+ C +2 B B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 104 Utah W 91 - 78 93% +6  17 - 2 5 - 1 +15 +24 B A+ B -8 D- A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 83 - 86 40% -9  17 - 3 5 - 2 +18 +15 B B B- +4 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 17 @Kansas L 75 - 77 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 63 @Oklahoma St. W 88 - 81 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 4 Houston W 74 - 73 51%
 Tue, Feb 10 48 @Baylor W 83 - 78 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 80 Colorado W 89 - 74 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 77 - 86 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 9 Iowa St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 49 Central Florida W 87 - 76 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 57 @West Virginia W 74 - 68 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 @Cincinnati W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 15 Texas Tech W 81 - 78 63%
Totals 24 - 7 12 - 6 +19 +11 B A B+ +8 A C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.7 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.3 2.4 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.7 4.2 0.2 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 9.4 8.0 0.5 19.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 8.3 9.1 1.4 19.9 5th
6th 0.6 5.4 8.0 1.9 15.7 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.6 12.4 19.7 22.6 20.2 11.7 4.4 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 88.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
15-3 42.1% 1.9    0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 5.8% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.9 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.7% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.5 1.6 4.0 4.6 1.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 20.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 3.2 0.6 3.6 8.6 5.8 1.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 22.6% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 3.9 0.2 1.3 6.0 9.1 5.1 0.8 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.7% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 4.7 0.3 2.1 5.8 7.8 3.4 0.4 100.0%
10-8 12.4% 99.9% 3.2% 96.7% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 5.6% 99.7% 3.0% 96.7% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 2.1% 97.1% 0.5% 96.7% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.1%
7-11 0.5% 93.9% 1.0% 92.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.9%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 8.2% 91.7% 4.1 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 73.8 26.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 51.5 48.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 37.5 58.3 4.2