Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 #107
Expected Predictive Rating +6.9 #79
Pace 66.6 #241
Improvement -1.0 #238

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #151 C- C B+ F D
Defense #78 B- C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #319 1.06 #298 -5.0 #336
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.79 #120 +3.1 #50
Three Pointers 40% #201 1.05 #139 +0.0 #174
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #235 -1.9 #235
Freethrows 0.22 #355 66% #349 0.15 #362
Second Chance 32.8% #120 0.98 #259 0.32 #165
Turnovers 13.2% #22
Total Offense +0.3 #151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.06 #64 +0.0 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.80 #255 -1.1 #274
Three Pointers 36% #315 0.91 #51 +4.7 #23
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #65 +3.6 #65
Freethrows 0.29 #160 73% #210 0.21 #163
Second Chance 29.7% #140 1.06 #198 0.31 #163
Turnovers 15.5% #232
Total Defense +3.6 #78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #322 0.1% #173
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #197 -7.1% #59
Possession Length 17.9 #226 17.8 #247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.15 #115
Improvement -2.3 #300 +1.2 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 32.5% 30.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.3% 69.1% 44.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.2% 32.5% 30.0%
Second Round2.6% 2.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 5
Quad 418 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 156 Arkansas St. W 90 - 65 74% +16  1 - 0 +22 +10 C- A+ F +11 A+ A C
 Tue, Nov 11 230 @Rice W 81 - 69 68% +8  2 - 0 +11 +9 B- C B- +2 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 252 Abilene Christian W 76 - 66 87% +1  3 - 0 +2 +4 C- D+ A+ -2 B B D-
 Tue, Nov 18 149 @Fresno St. L 78 - 80 52% +1  3 - 1 +2 +12 C+ A+ C+ -11 F D- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 281 @Pepperdine W 63 - 60 78% -3  4 - 1 -1 -7 F A- B- +6 B- C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 157 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 66 53% +3  4 - 2 -2 +1 D+ C B- -4 D+ B C
 Wed, Dec 3 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 73 - 60 80% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +1 D- C A+ +7 A+ A F
 Sun, Dec 7 361 Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 76 97% +11  6 - 2 +1 +11 B+ F+ A -10 A- F F
 Wed, Dec 17 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 60 80% +1  7 - 2 2 - 0 +4 +4 C+ C A- +1 C+ D C+
 Mon, Dec 29 311 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 48 82% +6  8 - 2 3 - 0 +21 +8 D+ C+ A- +15 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 268 @Northwestern St. W 74 - 64 75% +7  9 - 2 4 - 0 +7 +3 D+ F B+ +5 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 265 @SE Louisiana W 73 - 63 74% +8  10 - 2 5 - 0 +7 +6 D+ C+ B- +2 C+ F+ C+
 Mon, Jan 5 82 @McNeese St. L 64 - 66 28% +2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +8 +5 C- B C- +3 C+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 300 Houston Christian W 85 - 67 91% +15  11 - 3 6 - 1 +7 +15 C- B A+ -6 D- C A
 Mon, Jan 12 240 Incarnate Word W 56 - 46 86% +7  12 - 3 7 - 1 +3 -18 F C C+ +21 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 220 @New Orleans W 84 - 79 67% +1  13 - 3 8 - 1 +4 +10 B+ F A+ -6 D- D C-
 Mon, Jan 19 255 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 62 73% +16  14 - 3 9 - 1 +15 +10 B+ F B- +5 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 205 @Lamar W 88 - 81 64% +4  15 - 3 10 - 1 +7 +21 A+ D- A+ -13 D F C
 Tue, Jan 27 268 Northwestern St. W 69 - 67 88% +8  16 - 3 11 - 1 -7 -11 F D+ B+ +4 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 31 265 SE Louisiana W 73 - 60 88%
 Mon, Feb 2 82 McNeese St. L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 205 Lamar W 73 - 63 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 311 East Texas A&M W 78 - 62 93%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 70 - 67 62%
 Mon, Feb 16 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68 - 65 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 Nicholls St. W 78 - 66 88%
 Mon, Feb 23 220 New Orleans W 81 - 71 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Houston Christian W 74 - 65 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 240 @Incarnate Word W 72 - 67 69%
Totals 24 - 5 19 - 3 +4 +0 C- C B+ +4 B- C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 12.0 23.5 20.1 7.4 66.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.6 10.9 11.1 3.7 33.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 6.1 13.8 23.1 27.2 20.1 7.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 7.4    7.4
20-2 100.0% 20.1    18.7 1.4
19-3 86.3% 23.5    15.8 7.7
18-4 51.9% 12.0    5.8 6.2
17-5 21.4% 3.0    0.9 2.1 0.0
16-6 7.2% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1
15-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11
Total 66.3% 66.3 48.5 17.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 7.4% 42.4% 42.4% 11.8 0.7 2.1 0.2 4.2
20-2 20.1% 36.3% 36.3% 12.4 0.2 4.1 2.8 0.2 12.8
19-3 27.2% 35.5% 35.5% 12.7 0.1 3.7 5.0 0.9 0.0 17.5
18-4 23.1% 29.0% 29.0% 12.9 0.0 1.6 3.9 1.2 0.1 16.4
17-5 13.8% 27.0% 27.0% 13.1 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.0 10.1
16-6 6.1% 22.5% 22.5% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 4.7
15-7 1.8% 16.0% 16.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
14-8 0.5% 17.8% 17.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.0% 0.0
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 12.7 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 11.8 23.9 68.6 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%