William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #100
Pace 82.1 #4
Improvement -0.9 #229

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #146 B- C C- C+ B
Defense #130 C C B+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.26 #77 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #329 0.72 #221 -3.2 #329
Three Pointers 46% #76 1.00 #212 +2.3 #104
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #104 +2.6 #105
Freethrows 0.30 #183 75% #85 0.23 #146
Second Chance 26.8% #285 1.14 #70 0.31 #205
Turnovers 17.1% #221
Total Offense +0.5 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.23 #276 -0.9 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #354 0.78 #213 +2.6 #15
Three Pointers 49% #18 0.91 #57 -1.3 #244
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #172 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 0.29 #151 71% #105 0.20 #128
Second Chance 31.6% #229 1.00 #112 0.32 #174
Turnovers 19.5% #39
Total Defense +1.2 #130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #38 1.7% #330
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #133 -2.3% #140
Possession Length 13.7 #2 18.4 #315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #43 0.16 #138
Improvement +0.5 #155 -1.4 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 20.6% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 98.9% 92.5%
Conference Champion 19.2% 26.7% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.7% 20.6% 14.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 53.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 298 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 73% -4  1 - 0 -2 +0 C- A+ F -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 117 @Richmond L 86 - 90 34% -1  1 - 1 +2 +7 C- C A+ -5 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 18 @St. John's L 60 - 93 5% -13  1 - 2 -13 -11 D- A F +3 B- B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 145 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 42% +9  2 - 2 +12 +3 B C F +8 A+ D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 266 UTEP W 74 - 63 77% +8  3 - 2 +5 -4 C+ D- F +9 A+ D- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 252 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 74% +12  4 - 2 +29 +13 A+ C+ C+ +14 B- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 222 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 79% +7  5 - 2 +6 +3 B+ F+ C- +2 C+ B A
 Tue, Dec 2 122 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 36% +8  6 - 2 +9 +5 A+ F F +4 A F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 65 @George Washington L 86 - 99 18% -4  6 - 3 -1 +8 B- B- C+ -8 D D+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 253 Radford W 96 - 83 82% +3  7 - 3 +5 +4 D B- A- -1 B- D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 163 Towson W 84 - 70 69% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +12 A+ F A- -2 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 238 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 80% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +12 +5 A+ D- D- +8 A- A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 160 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 45% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -4 F C A+ -1 D- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 186 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 52% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -10 -2 D+ A- F -8 D- F+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 201 @Drexel L 58 - 64 55% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -9 D- F F+ +3 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 15 293 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 87% +7  10 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +10 A C C- -13 F C A
 Thu, Jan 22 121 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 58% +11  11 - 6 4 - 3 +7 +1 C D+ C +5 A- B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 129 Hofstra W 89 - 82 61% +5  12 - 6 5 - 3 +6 +17 A- B A+ -11 C D+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 193 @Elon W 84 - 83 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 207 Campbell W 89 - 81 76%
 Thu, Feb 5 121 @UNC Wilmington L 75 - 79 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @Hampton W 77 - 74 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 256 @Northeastern W 88 - 84 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 193 Elon W 87 - 80 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 @Campbell W 86 - 84 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 256 Northeastern W 91 - 81 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @N.C. A&T W 86 - 80 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 235 Hampton W 80 - 71 79%
Totals 19 - 9 12 - 6 +2 +0 B- C C- +1 C C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.4 7.1 2.0 19.2 1st
2nd 0.2 5.1 13.6 10.0 2.2 0.1 31.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 10.5 6.2 0.8 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.4 6.2 4.8 0.5 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 4.5 0.5 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 1.2 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.8 1.9 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 7.5 14.8 21.1 23.0 18.2 9.4 2.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 95.9% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 75.8% 7.1    4.5 2.5 0.2
13-5 40.4% 7.4    2.4 3.7 1.2 0.1
12-6 11.3% 2.6    0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 8.8 7.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.1% 33.4% 33.4% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.4
14-4 9.4% 27.4% 27.4% 12.7 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.2 6.8
13-5 18.2% 25.5% 25.5% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.8 0.9 0.0 13.6
12-6 23.0% 20.2% 20.2% 13.2 0.6 2.7 1.3 0.0 18.3
11-7 21.1% 14.8% 14.8% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.1 18.0
10-8 14.8% 9.6% 9.6% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 13.4
9-9 7.5% 5.7% 5.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.1
8-10 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
7-11 0.9% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 13.1 82.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.0 14.6 71.5 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%