North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #254
Pace 70.2 #140
Improvement +6.0 #11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #221 D+ C- C+ C B-
Defense #330 F+ D B+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.03 #319 -1.4 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #279 0.64 #333 -2.8 #311
Three Pointers 43% #136 0.99 #219 +0.7 #147
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.6 #286
Freethrows 0.32 #135 70% #264 0.22 #172
Second Chance 28.1% #252 1.05 #172 0.30 #228
Turnovers 15.3% #112
Total Offense -1.9 #221

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.25 #295 -3.8 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #349 0.82 #282 +2.0 #42
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.18 #351 -5.2 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #353 -7.0 #353
Freethrows 0.39 #355 71% #117 0.27 #344
Second Chance 33.4% #299 1.13 #292 0.38 #314
Turnovers 19.7% #33
Total Defense -5.5 #330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #86 2.1% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.1% #313 11.4% #347
Possession Length 18.1 #254 16.4 #44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #293 0.18 #234
Improvement +7.5 #1 -1.6 #278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 5.8% 17.7% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 98.9% 87.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 4.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round1.8% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 411 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0 - 1 -8 -7 C+ F B- +1 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 292 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 62% -5  0 - 2 -14 -8 C F C+ -6 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 217 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 46% -4  0 - 3 -14 +2 C C+ A -16 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 292 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 39% +0  1 - 3 -2 -3 C- F+ C+ +0 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 55 @Creighton L 60 - 75 4% -9  1 - 4 -2 -3 D+ D+ B +0 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 22 236 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 38% -10  1 - 5 -21 -19 F D+ D -1 F+ B C
 Sun, Nov 23 360 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 68% -1  2 - 5 -3 -2 C- F F -2 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 28 97 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 8% -14  2 - 6 -29 -15 F D+ F -10 F C A-
 Wed, Dec 3 188 @Idaho L 58 - 90 21% -15  2 - 7 -31 -15 C- F F -17 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 161 Montana L 75 - 79 33% +1  2 - 8 -7 +2 D A C+ -9 D- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 360 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 84% -1  2 - 9 -21 -16 F C+ F -5 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 126 Winthrop W 90 - 88 27% -2  3 - 9 +1 +17 C- A+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 13 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  3 - 10 -1 -4 C F B- +2 B+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 1 331 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 72% +10  4 - 10 1 - 0 -3 -6 D- D+ F +4 B+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 180 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 39% +1  5 - 10 2 - 0 -1 +15 B- A+ B- -16 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 243 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 29% -7  5 - 11 2 - 1 -13 +7 D+ C A- -20 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 355 @UMKC W 81 - 79 63% -2  6 - 11 3 - 1 -9 +11 D+ C A+ -20 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 128 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 27% -5  6 - 12 3 - 2 -12 +3 C A- D -15 F D A
 Sat, Jan 17 287 South Dakota W 96 - 80 61% +11  7 - 12 4 - 2 +6 +16 C+ A+ A+ -10 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 331 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 51% +8  8 - 12 5 - 2 +9 +8 D+ C A+ +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @Denver W 93 - 86 38% +0  9 - 12 6 - 2 +3 +9 C+ D C -6 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 128 @St. Thomas L 72 - 84 13%
 Thu, Feb 5 243 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 76 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 284 Denver W 84 - 81 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 287 @South Dakota L 82 - 85 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 137 North Dakota St. L 72 - 78 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 355 UMKC W 80 - 70 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 180 @South Dakota St. L 74 - 83 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 137 @North Dakota St. L 69 - 81 14%
Totals 12 - 17 9 - 7 -7 -2 D+ C- C+ -5 F+ D B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.2 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 12.7 17.1 7.6 0.8 40.4 3rd
4th 0.8 10.9 14.9 4.6 0.2 31.4 4th
5th 0.2 4.4 8.7 2.3 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.9 3.8 1.2 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.6 9.5 22.9 30.0 22.4 10.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 64.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-4 12.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.5% 9.3% 9.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-4 2.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-5 10.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.2 0.4 9.6
10-6 22.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 21.7
9-7 30.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 29.4
8-8 22.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 22.5
7-9 9.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-10 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%