Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#205
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace72.6#95
Improvement-2.6#333

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#168
First Shot+3.2#91
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#344
Layup/Dunks-0.4#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#80
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement-1.3#282

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#271
First Shot-3.0#271
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#194
Layups/Dunks-7.6#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#19
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement-1.4#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 15.4% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 32.0% 65.0% 31.6%
.500 or above in Conference 54.5% 74.8% 54.2%
Conference Champion 9.1% 19.3% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 4.9% 10.8%
First Four1.4% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round7.4% 15.0% 7.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 92 @Stanford L 68-91 14%     0 - 1 -14.3 -5.0 -7.8
  Tue, Nov 11 141 @UNLV W 102-93 24%     1 - 1 +13.4 +17.5 -5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 250 Cal Poly W 90-82 69%     2 - 1 -0.1 +0.9 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 45 @Texas A&M L 81-86 6%     2 - 2 +9.3 +14.3 -5.0
  Sun, Nov 23 223 Lamar L 63-68 64%     2 - 3 -11.6 -11.6 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 149 Oakland L 87-95 48%     2 - 4 -10.3 +0.5 -10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 146 North Dakota St. L 72-81 47%     2 - 5 -11.1 -1.3 -9.8
  Sat, Dec 6 342 @North Dakota W 79-75 71%     3 - 5 -4.5 +5.1 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 20 10 @Louisville L 70-95 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 270 Northern Arizona W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 154 Northern Colorado L 78-79 49%    
  Thu, Jan 8 172 @Idaho L 75-80 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 241 @Eastern Washington L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 174 @Montana St. L 71-76 33%    
  Mon, Jan 19 270 @Northern Arizona L 74-75 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 212 Weber St. W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 163 Idaho St. W 73-72 51%    
  Thu, Jan 29 177 @Portland St. L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 279 @Sacramento St. W 80-79 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 241 Eastern Washington W 84-79 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 172 Idaho W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 174 Montana St. W 74-73 54%    
  Thu, Feb 19 163 @Idaho St. L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 212 @Weber St. L 77-80 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 279 Sacramento St. W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 177 Portland St. W 75-74 55%    
  Mon, Mar 2 154 @Northern Colorado L 75-81 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.8 2.3 0.7 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 6.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.5 3.5 0.3 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.1 8.9 11.3 12.4 13.6 12.4 10.3 7.6 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 92.3% 1.4    1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 77.8% 2.5    1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 50.1% 2.6    1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 20.5% 1.6    0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1
11-7 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 31.8% 31.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 39.1% 39.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.5% 34.1% 34.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0
14-4 3.2% 24.3% 24.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.4
13-5 5.2% 18.4% 18.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 4.3
12-6 7.6% 16.7% 16.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.3
11-7 10.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 9.1
10-8 12.4% 9.4% 9.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 11.2
9-9 13.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 12.8
8-10 12.4% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.9
7-11 11.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.0
6-12 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.8
5-13 6.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.0
4-14 3.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.0 2.2 92.1 0.0%