Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.1 #126
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #145
Pace 71.5 #106
Improvement -3.4 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 C- C+ B B B-
Defense #165 C C C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.06 #296 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #317 0.63 #340 -3.4 #334
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.02 #181 +3.3 #77
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #233 -1.8 #232
Freethrows 0.34 #61 73% #144 0.25 #65
Second Chance 34.0% #85 1.05 #167 0.36 #97
Turnovers 14.4% #65
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.13 #135 +1.2 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #235 0.89 #344 -0.5 #224
Three Pointers 44% #92 1.00 #151 -1.0 #224
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #190 -0.3 #191
Freethrows 0.32 #248 74% #252 0.24 #266
Second Chance 30.2% #162 1.11 #273 0.33 #223
Turnovers 16.5% #178
Total Defense +0.0 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #66 0.4% #199
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #269 0.2% #187
Possession Length 16.9 #129 17.2 #154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #216 0.14 #93
Improvement -4.4 #353 +1.0 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 28.8% 23.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.7% 45.9% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round27.6% 28.8% 23.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 25 - 7
Quad 415 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 Queens W 81 - 74 68% +2  1 - 0 +4 +0 F A+ C+ +4 A D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @George Mason L 90 - 96 24% -0  1 - 1 +4 +13 B F A+ -9 F B- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 236 @Coastal Carolina L 66 - 72 63% -7  1 - 2 -7 -7 D- F+ C +0 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 150 Mercer W 105 - 69 67% +16  2 - 2 +33 +15 B B A- +14 A B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 21 @Arkansas L 83 - 84 6% -1  2 - 3 +19 +16 A- A A- +3 A- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 337 @Jackson St. W 80 - 62 83% +8  3 - 3 +10 +10 C+ C+ B+ +1 D- C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 13 @Nebraska L 73 - 80 4% -2  3 - 4 +15 +13 A B- A +2 A B F
 Sat, Nov 29 359 South Carolina St. W 101 - 79 96% +14  4 - 4 +4 +15 B+ A+ F+ -13 F D D
 Tue, Dec 2 227 @LIU Brooklyn W 94 - 92 OT 61% +4  5 - 4 +1 +13 F+ A+ A -12 D- F+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 236 Coastal Carolina L 84 - 88 81% +1  5 - 5 -11 +9 D A+ C- -21 F D- D-
 Thu, Dec 18 290 @North Dakota L 88 - 90 73% +2  5 - 6 -6 +12 B B+ A -19 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 28 15 @Texas Tech L 57 - 87 5% -26  5 - 7 -9 -8 F D F+ -1 C- C A+
 Wed, Dec 31 257 @Longwood L 70 - 82 67% -7  5 - 8 0 - 1 -14 -2 F C+ A+ -13 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 77 97% -5  6 - 8 1 - 1 -10 +8 C F B -18 F A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 234 Charleston Southern W 81 - 77 81% -2  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 -2 D C+ D -1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 307 @South Carolina Upstate W 71 - 50 77% +15  8 - 8 3 - 1 +15 +1 C C D- +16 A+ C B+
 Wed, Jan 14 96 High Point W 92 - 75 48% +15  9 - 8 4 - 1 +20 +17 B A+ A+ +3 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 204 @UNC Asheville W 69 - 67 57% +6  10 - 8 5 - 1 +2 -3 F C- F +5 A+ B+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 253 Radford W 76 - 75 83% -2  11 - 8 6 - 1 -7 -2 B- F+ C -5 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 269 @Presbyterian W 82 - 72 69% +5  12 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +7 F B A+ +0 B C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 UNC Asheville W 79 - 71 77%
 Wed, Feb 4 253 @Radford W 85 - 81 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 257 Longwood W 83 - 73 84%
 Thu, Feb 12 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 71 95%
 Thu, Feb 19 307 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 68 90%
 Sat, Feb 21 96 @High Point L 79 - 85 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 234 @Charleston Southern W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 269 Presbyterian W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 3 +2 +2 C- C+ B +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 11.8 19.2 6.8 40.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 8.9 20.3 20.7 5.5 57.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 9.7 22.9 32.5 24.8 6.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 6.8    6.8
14-2 77.7% 19.2    10.6 8.7
13-3 36.4% 11.8    4.2 7.6 0.0
12-4 11.1% 2.5    0.6 1.7 0.2
11-5 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.7% 40.7 22.2 18.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 6.8% 38.9% 38.9% 12.5 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 4.2
14-2 24.8% 33.9% 33.9% 13.3 0.7 4.5 3.0 0.2 16.4
13-3 32.5% 27.6% 27.6% 13.7 0.3 3.1 4.8 0.9 0.0 23.5
12-4 22.9% 23.0% 23.0% 14.0 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.1 0.0 17.6
11-5 9.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 8.0
10-6 2.7% 16.5% 16.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3
9-7 0.5% 12.3% 12.3% 15.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.6% 27.6% 0.0% 13.6 72.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 12.5 3.2 46.6 45.1 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%