Winthrop
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#112
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#177
Pace73.4#71
Improvement-2.5#327

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#71
First Shot+2.5#105
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#63
Layup/Dunks-1.3#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#23
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement+1.9#53

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#214
First Shot-0.6#200
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#228
Layups/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#211
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement-4.4#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.1% 37.1% 29.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 96.9% 97.9% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 98.5% 96.8%
Conference Champion 48.0% 49.3% 39.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round36.0% 37.1% 29.2%
Second Round3.4% 3.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 34 - 24 - 7
Quad 416 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 202 Queens W 81-74 72%     1 - 0 +4.2 -0.9 +4.9
  Fri, Nov 7 77 @George Mason L 90-96 24%     1 - 1 +4.7 +15.1 -9.9
  Tue, Nov 11 244 @Coastal Carolina L 66-72 69%     1 - 2 -7.7 -7.1 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 168 Mercer W 105-69 75%     2 - 2 +32.2 +15.2 +12.2
  Tue, Nov 18 21 @Arkansas L 83-84 9%     2 - 3 +17.6 +16.7 +0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 315 @Jackson St. W 80-62 82%     3 - 3 +11.9 +14.2 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 25 @Nebraska L 73-80 9%     3 - 4 +10.9 +9.2 +1.6
  Sat, Nov 29 360 South Carolina St. W 101-79 96%     4 - 4 +4.3 +16.1 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 2 211 @LIU Brooklyn W 94-92 OT 64%     5 - 4 +1.7 +13.6 -12.0
  Sat, Dec 6 244 Coastal Carolina L 84-88 85%     5 - 5 -11.7 +9.6 -21.3
  Thu, Dec 18 342 @North Dakota W 84-72 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 24 @Texas Tech L 72-87 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 308 @Longwood W 85-76 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 357 Gardner-Webb W 93-72 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 267 Charleston Southern W 85-73 87%    
  Sat, Jan 10 262 @South Carolina Upstate W 81-75 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 105 High Point W 86-84 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 222 @UNC Asheville W 81-77 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 255 Radford W 90-78 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 263 @Presbyterian W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 222 UNC Asheville W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 255 @Radford W 87-81 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 308 Longwood W 88-73 91%    
  Thu, Feb 12 357 @Gardner-Webb W 90-75 91%    
  Thu, Feb 19 262 South Carolina Upstate W 84-72 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 105 @High Point L 83-87 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 267 @Charleston Southern W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 263 Presbyterian W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.8 6.3 12.5 14.7 9.5 3.1 48.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.1 11.7 7.0 1.6 34.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 4.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.4 9.7 13.7 18.6 19.6 16.2 9.5 3.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
15-1 100.0% 9.5    9.0 0.4
14-2 90.4% 14.7    11.6 3.1 0.0
13-3 63.9% 12.5    7.7 4.6 0.2
12-4 33.9% 6.3    2.8 3.0 0.5 0.0
11-5 12.8% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
10-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.0% 48.0 34.5 12.1 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.1% 59.4% 59.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.3
15-1 9.5% 53.3% 53.3% 12.8 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.4
14-2 16.2% 48.1% 48.1% 13.2 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.5 0.3 8.4
13-3 19.6% 39.8% 39.8% 13.6 0.4 3.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.8
12-4 18.6% 33.8% 33.8% 13.9 0.2 1.5 3.2 1.4 0.0 12.3
11-5 13.7% 26.8% 26.8% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.1 10.1
10-6 9.7% 21.8% 21.8% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 7.6
9-7 5.4% 18.1% 18.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 4.4
8-8 2.5% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1
7-9 1.1% 10.3% 10.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.0
6-10 0.4% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.1 0.3
5-11 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.1% 36.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.4 11.9 12.7 5.5 0.9 63.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.9 1.4 2.7 1.4 13.5 63.5 17.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%