Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #204
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 #184
Pace 81.1 #6
Improvement +4.8 #18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #198 C C C- C- B
Defense #226 C C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 1.12 #217 +4.2 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #250 0.71 #260 -1.7 #269
Three Pointers 36% #288 1.02 #186 -2.6 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #181 -0.2 #180
Freethrows 0.31 #165 66% #346 0.20 #228
Second Chance 33.2% #107 0.92 #326 0.31 #202
Turnovers 17.0% #217
Total Offense -1.2 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.19 #231 +2.6 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #229 0.78 #220 +0.5 #151
Three Pointers 48% #23 1.00 #162 -3.4 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #189 -0.3 #190
Freethrows 0.31 #210 76% #345 0.24 #261
Second Chance 26.4% #52 1.24 #354 0.33 #207
Turnovers 14.9% #271
Total Defense -1.5 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #47 -0.3% #138
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #212 0.9% #203
Possession Length 14.9 #15 17.2 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #115 0.20 #259
Improvement +1.3 #117 +3.5 #24

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 52.3% 69.2% 39.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 79.0% 48.4%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.4% 3.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 516 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 111 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 19% -17  0 - 1 -23 -9 D- D- F -13 D- D C
 Sun, Nov 9 279 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 54% +4  1 - 1 +4 +9 B- B- D+ -6 D+ D F+
 Tue, Nov 11 136 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 25% -5  1 - 2 -18 -12 F B+ F -3 A F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 120 Troy W 94 - 85 41% +4  2 - 2 +9 +16 B+ A+ D -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 195 Idaho L 64 - 78 48% -4  2 - 3 -16 -14 F C+ C- -2 A F C
 Fri, Nov 28 226 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 54% -18  2 - 4 -36 -30 F D F -3 C F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 82% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +3 C+ B- C- +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 114 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 20% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -8 +6 C+ D- A+ -14 C- F D
 Wed, Dec 10 149 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 49% +4  4 - 5 -1 +16 A+ F+ B- -17 F B+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 278 @Delaware W 88 - 66 54% +19  5 - 5 +18 +17 A+ C- C+ +2 B- B- A
 Mon, Dec 22 285 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 76% +4  6 - 5 +2 +7 A- F B+ -7 C- A F
 Sat, Dec 27 83 @Stanford L 80 - 88 12% -1  6 - 6 +2 +7 B+ F C- -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 198 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 37% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -8 +1 C- D+ F+ -8 F A- B
 Sat, Jan 3 133 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 45% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +8 -5 D+ B- F +12 A+ A- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 271 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 73% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -4 +4 A C+ D -9 C C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 217 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 40% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -7 -1 C D C+ -5 D C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 126 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 23% +2  9 - 8 4 - 3 +10 +12 C A- A+ -2 A D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 254 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 71% -0  9 - 9 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- D -9 D- B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 102 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 16% -9  9 - 10 4 - 5 -13 -4 C D C- -8 F A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 198 UC Davis W 94 - 78 60% +4  10 - 10 5 - 5 +11 +7 A+ D- C+ +2 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 31 126 UC San Diego L 77 - 79 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 271 @Cal Poly W 91 - 90 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 UC Riverside W 82 - 75 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 102 Hawaii L 76 - 81 34%
 Thu, Feb 19 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 76 - 83 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 254 @Long Beach St. L 79 - 80 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 114 UC Irvine L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Feb 28 287 @UC Riverside W 79 - 78 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 80 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 84 64%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 -3 -1 C C C- -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.1 3.3 0.4 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 8.0 6.6 1.4 18.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 10.9 8.0 1.2 0.0 23.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 8.6 8.5 1.4 0.0 20.2 6th
7th 0.7 5.8 6.7 1.3 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 3.9 1.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 11th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.4 12.3 19.1 22.9 18.5 12.2 6.0 1.7 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 68.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 15.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 1.7% 13.5% 13.5% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
13-7 6.0% 8.3% 8.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 5.5
12-8 12.2% 5.4% 5.4% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 11.5
11-9 18.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 18.1
10-10 22.9% 2.1% 2.1% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 22.4
9-11 19.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 19.0
8-12 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
7-13 5.4% 5.4
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.4 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%