Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.2 #360
Expected Predictive Rating -20.5 #360
Pace 65.0 #282
Improvement -1.4 #253

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #360 F D+ C D+ D
Defense #323 D D- D C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 0.92 #361 -4.8 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #20 0.66 #320 +2.4 #65
Three Pointers 31% #346 0.84 #355 -7.8 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.81 #364 -10.2 #364
Freethrows 0.29 #219 68% #319 0.20 #258
Second Chance 26.4% #293 0.99 #252 0.26 #297
Turnovers 16.5% #179
Total Offense -10.0 #360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #44 1.28 #319 -5.7 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.75 #158 +1.6 #69
Three Pointers 39% #234 1.09 #281 -0.5 #201
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #319 -4.6 #317
Freethrows 0.30 #181 74% #274 0.22 #210
Second Chance 34.5% #317 1.15 #307 0.39 #336
Turnovers 13.9% #326
Total Defense -5.2 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #326 1.7% #327
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -17.9% #364 7.6% #315
Possession Length 19.5 #347 16.3 #33
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.25 #357
Improvement -2.9 #328 +1.5 #91

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.4% 79.0% 92.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 43 - 184 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 @Radford L 75 - 80 12% -5  0 - 1 -7 +8 D A+ C- -16 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 23 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  0 - 2 +0 +1 D- C- C -4 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 301 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 18% -7  0 - 3 -21 -14 D F F -8 D- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 140 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 5% -6  0 - 4 -6 -3 D+ F+ B -4 B B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 236 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 22% -13  0 - 5 -27 -14 F B- D+ -12 D D- C
 Sun, Nov 23 290 North Dakota L 69 - 78 32% +1  0 - 6 -19 -14 D- D+ D- -5 D- B B+
 Tue, Dec 2 152 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0 - 7 -48 -8 F F+ B+ -44 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 290 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 16% +1  1 - 7 -1 -10 F A D+ +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 250 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 11% -13  1 - 8 0 - 1 -18 -2 D C- B -15 F F D
 Mon, Dec 22 261 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 26% +3  1 - 9 0 - 2 -14 -13 D F+ F+ -0 B F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 231 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 10% +15  1 - 10 0 - 3 -8 -5 B- F F -4 C+ B F+
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 11% -9  1 - 11 0 - 4 -25 -18 F F F -8 D F C
 Thu, Jan 8 229 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 21% -14  1 - 12 0 - 5 -29 -11 F D- B -17 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 338 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 46% +2  1 - 13 0 - 6 -19 -19 F F F -1 C B- C-
 Tue, Jan 13 312 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 19% -4  1 - 14 0 - 7 -8 -13 F D+ D+ +5 A- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 14% -6  1 - 15 0 - 8 -11 +7 F+ D+ A+ -18 F+ D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 299 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 17% -1  1 - 16 0 - 9 -10 -6 F C A- -5 B F D
 Fri, Jan 23 322 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 21% -22  1 - 17 0 - 10 -39 -12 F D B -25 F F C
 Thu, Jan 29 246 Southeast Missouri St. L 66 - 74 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 231 Tennessee Martin L 61 - 69 22%
 Thu, Feb 5 338 @Tennessee Tech L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 229 @Tennessee St. L 66 - 80 9%
 Tue, Feb 10 312 Eastern Illinois L 62 - 65 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 71 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 322 Southern Indiana L 65 - 68 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 299 Morehead St. L 67 - 71 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 57 - 70 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Lindenwood L 69 - 76 25%
Totals 4 - 24 3 - 17 -15 -10 F D+ C -5 D D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.4 3.6 6.5 3.7 1.2 0.1 15.4 10th
11th 6.2 18.0 25.4 19.4 8.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 79.1 11th
Total 6.2 18.0 25.8 23.0 15.9 7.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 7.3% 7.3
4-16 15.9% 15.9
3-17 23.0% 23.0
2-18 25.8% 25.8
1-19 18.0% 18.0
0-20 6.2% 6.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.2%