Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.7#354
Expected Predictive Rating-16.0#352
Pace62.4#343
Improvement-1.3#272

Offense
Total Offense-7.4#343
First Shot-6.4#342
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#240
Layup/Dunks-5.7#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#324
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement-2.4#335

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#346
First Shot-6.1#348
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#339
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement+1.1#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 2.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 17.7% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 49.0% 28.4% 51.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 46 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 255 @Radford L 75-80 14%     0 - 1 -7.2 +10.0 -17.8
  Fri, Nov 7 20 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 -0.3 +0.4 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 11 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 22%     0 - 3 -21.7 -14.6 -7.8
  Fri, Nov 14 126 @California Baptist L 59-69 5%     0 - 4 -4.7 -4.5 -1.4
  Fri, Nov 21 244 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 28%     0 - 5 -27.7 -14.0 -12.7
  Sun, Nov 23 342 North Dakota L 69-78 53%     0 - 6 -23.5 -12.1 -11.0
  Tue, Dec 2 136 @Drake L 57-108 5%     0 - 7 -46.4 -9.2 -42.1
  Sat, Dec 13 342 @North Dakota W 69-66 OT 31%     1 - 7 -5.5 -8.3 +2.7
  Thu, Dec 18 238 @Lindenwood L 65-78 12%    
  Mon, Dec 22 232 SIU Edwardsville L 62-69 27%    
  Thu, Jan 1 252 @Tennessee Martin L 60-72 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 214 @Southeast Missouri St. L 64-77 11%    
  Thu, Jan 8 235 Tennessee St. L 65-72 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 266 Tennessee Tech L 68-73 32%    
  Tue, Jan 13 333 @Eastern Illinois L 63-69 29%    
  Sat, Jan 17 313 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63-71 24%    
  Thu, Jan 22 322 @Morehead St. L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 317 @Southern Indiana L 67-74 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 214 Southeast Missouri St. L 67-74 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 252 Tennessee Martin L 63-69 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 266 @Tennessee Tech L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Feb 7 235 @Tennessee St. L 62-75 13%    
  Tue, Feb 10 333 Eastern Illinois L 65-66 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 313 Arkansas Little Rock L 66-68 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 Southern Indiana L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 322 Morehead St. L 68-69 46%    
  Thu, Feb 26 232 @SIU Edwardsville L 59-72 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 238 Lindenwood L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.1 0.3 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 14.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.3 7.8 5.1 1.4 0.1 22.2 10th
11th 1.2 4.0 7.9 10.3 8.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 37.2 11th
Total 1.2 4.0 8.2 12.5 14.3 14.9 13.2 11.0 8.1 5.6 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 70.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-6 48.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 15.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.5% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 1.9
10-10 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-11 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.6
8-12 8.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.1
7-13 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.9
6-14 13.2% 13.2
5-15 14.9% 14.9
4-16 14.3% 14.3
3-17 12.5% 12.5
2-18 8.2% 8.2
1-19 4.0% 4.0
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%